Playbook › Themes
Consulting, IT services & enterprise IT
Claim
Two passes. June screened consulting moats off the back of the ACN analysis; July was triggered by IBM's −26% Q2-warning day and hunted value across IBM's own field.
The June finding worth keeping
Moat type matters more than sector membership. Against a held ACN position:
| Name | Revenue model | Correlation to ACN |
|---|---|---|
| ACN, CTSH | Project-based consulting | — |
| IT (Gartner) | Research/advisory subscription | Low |
| BAH | Government/defense | Uncorrelated to tech spending entirely |
"These are complementary moat types to what's already held — not substitutes." The diversification argument is about revenue model, and it survives price changes.
The July finding
OTEX was the #1 pick and in its entry zone. KD flagged as a turnaround needing the small-cap lens before any capital. HPE wanted below ~$45.
Note OTEX also appeared in the March AI-headwind software screen with a flag on declining FCF that must be investigated. That investigation was never done, and OTEX has since been promoted to #1 pick. Worth resolving before acting.
🚩 Open contradiction
March flagged OTEX's declining FCF as the thing to verify; July made it the top pick without recording that it was verified. One of the two passes is missing work.
What would falsify this
Enterprise IT spending re-accelerating, which would compress the advantage of the subscription/government models relative to project consulting.
History
- 2026-06-11 — consulting moat screen off the ACN analysis.
- 2026-07-14 — IBM-peer value screen after the −26% warning day.
- 2026-07-30 — recorded; the unresolved OTEX FCF question flagged.