How to read this如何阅读本站
One investor's research desk, published. Every number here is a single analyst's judgement, not a consensus and not advice.一个投资者的研究台，公开发布。这里的每一个数字都是单个分析者的判断，既不是市场共识，也不是投资建议。
What this is这是什么
Every conviction score, entry band and full-value level on this site is one analyst's own judgement. Nothing here is a consensus view, a recommendation, or advice. Where the analysis has been wrong, the superseded conclusion is kept on file rather than deleted, so you can see the method fail as well as work.本站的每一个信心评分、买入区间和估值上限，都是单个分析者自己的判断。这里没有任何内容属于市场共识、推荐或投资建议。当分析被证明是错的，被推翻的结论会保留在档案里而不是删除，所以你既能看到这套方法奏效，也能看到它失败。
What it does not contain本站不包含什么
No positions, position sizes, cost bases or account values appear anywhere on this site, in either language. That is enforced at build time, not by review: the build refuses to publish if a private figure survives redaction.本站的任何页面、任何语言版本，都不会出现持仓、仓位大小、成本价或账户金额。这一点由构建流程强制执行，而不是靠人工复核：如果有私人数据通过了脱敏检查，构建会直接拒绝发布。
How the numbers work这些数字怎么理解
Entry is the price band at which the analysis considers a name worth buying. Full value is the valuation ceiling above which it is no longer cheap -- it is written as an earnings multiple rather than a fixed price, so it rises as earnings grow, and the live dollar level is recomputed on every build. Conviction is a 0-10 score on the business and the price together. A verdict of TRIM is a statement about price against value, not an instruction to you.买入区间是分析认为值得买入的价格带。估值上限是价格高于此处就不再便宜的水平——它写成盈利倍数而不是固定价格，所以会随着盈利增长而上移，具体的美元水平在每次构建时重新计算。信心评分是对生意质量和价格的综合打分，满分 10 分。TRIM 这个结论是在说价格相对价值偏高，而不是在指示你该怎么做。
What is deliberately missing哪些内容是刻意缺失的
The universe on this site is filtered, and the filter is a matter of taste as much as analysis. Roughly half the names are technology, semiconductors, cybersecurity or related infrastructure. Several fields were screened and then declined on business-model grounds rather than on price -- most of defensive income, energy and staples among them. Those decisions are listed below with the reasoning, so you can weigh them yourself rather than assume the field was never examined.本站的股票池是经过筛选的，而这个筛选既来自分析，也来自个人偏好。大约一半的名字是科技、半导体、网络安全或相关基础设施。有几个领域在筛查之后，是基于商业模式而不是价格被否掉的——其中包括大部分防御型收益股、能源和日常消费品。这些决定连同理由列在下面，你可以自己去权衡，而不必猜测这个领域是否从来没被看过。
Fields considered已研究过的领域23
Every field swept, with the verdict in the note's own words. A field that produced no entries was still researched -- the absence is a conclusion, not a gap.每一个扫描过的领域，结论用笔记自己的原话呈现。一个没有产出任何买入标的的领域，同样是被研究过的——这个「没有」本身就是结论，不是遗漏。
| Field领域 | Swept扫描时间 | Verdict结论 |
|---|---|---|
| BACEN systematically commoditizes each profitable layer of Brazilian banking | 2026-09-28 (today今天) | Brazil's central bank runs a consistent, repeated policy of building free public infrastructure that competes away the profit pool of each banking layer in turn — payments, then data, then interest rates, then installment credit — so today's disrupter becomes… |
| Nuclear, uranium & the enrichment pipeline | 2026-09-10 (18 days ago18 天前) | Swept 2026-06-10 across the full fuel-cycle stack (mining → enrichment → SMR → generation) — the durable finding is that the layers carry completely different risk types, so "nuclear exposure" is meaningless without naming the layer. |
| US homebuilders — an industry-wide price war where the cheapest names are cheap on book and dear on earnings | 2026-08-19 (1 month ago1 个月前) | First look at the field, 2026-08-19, via LEN plus a seven-name peer read. The field is in an industry-wide margin recession driven by a new-home inventory overhang roughly double the resale market's, with mortgage rates higher than a year ago. |
| Software & SaaS — all subsectors | 2026-08-10 (1 month ago1 个月前) | The most heavily swept field in the repo (12+ screens, Mar–Jul 2026) — the March SaaSpocalypse produced genuine below-own-band value in application software, but no screen has ever been scored against outcomes, so the field's real lesson is still unread. |
| Fintech, payments & financial infrastructure | 2026-08-06 (1 month ago1 个月前) | Swept 2026-03-21 for Visa-like asset-light toll-booth businesses — the field's quality is uniformly high so the binding constraint is price, not business selection. |
| Gaming, adtech & consumer internet | 2026-08-05 (1 month ago1 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29 — NTES (conviction 7.0) survived as a non-AI-levered survivor, but it carries China structural risk, which is a different risk class from the valuation risk the sweep was screening for. |
| Hardware, networking, storage, components & electrical infrastructure | 2026-08-05 (1 month ago1 个月前) | Swept across five March 2026 screens — consistently the weakest risk/reward layer in the tech selloff (narrower moats, softer FCF) with NTAP/CDW/ZBRA the only names of interest; never refreshed since, so the entire field is stale by four months. |
| GLP-1, obesity & metabolic pharma | 2026-07-31 (1 month ago1 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-31 via NVO — the field is the largest therapeutic category in pharma history and is simultaneously the clearest case of a huge field with a losing incumbent: obesity volume compounds for decades while value per patient collapses, the duopoly has… |
| Semiconductor materials, consumables & subsystems | 2026-07-30 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29, no gems — materials tracks fab UTILIZATION while equipment tracks fab CAPEX, so "materials is the defensive way to own semis" holds against capex cuts and inverts against utilization declines; in the July 2026 selloff the purest materials… |
| Broad cross-sector value & global-vs-US screens | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Broad "find value anywhere" screens have consistently underperformed field-specific ones in this repo — they surface names already covered elsewhere and, in the global case, produced an FX artifact mistaken for a discount. |
| Crypto-linked equities | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29 — since the user already holds BTC directly, coin-beta names are leverage on an existing position rather than diversification, so the only interesting question is which names have a real business independent of the coin price. |
| Healthcare, energy, industrials/materials, staples & telecom | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29 as the "unswept fields" pass and rejected by the user on business-model grounds rather than valuation — the durable finding is that the 2026 defensive rotation bought the label, not the cash flow. |
| Health tech & healthcare software | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29 and produced the best result of the entire July exercise — DOCS at conviction 7.0 and in its entry zone, because the field is not AI-narrative-levered and so did not participate in the run-up that left every adjacent field expensive. |
| Japan tech & semiconductors | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29 and the premise failed — Japan's apparent discount was an FX artifact (EWJ −8.4% ≈ yen −8.41%, while TOPIX set a record close), and Japanese AI names carry zero discount, with Advantest at 60x P/E and 28x P/B. |
| Optical, photonics & datacom interconnect | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29, no entries — 10 of 13 names traded above their own historical bands (LITE at 2.6x its own recent-high P/B) and three of the field's familiar names are no longer independently investable. |
| Robotics, automation, machine vision & physical AI | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-29, no entries — the quality names (CGNX, ZBRA and peers) trade at 32-35x earnings despite the selloff, so the field is a watch-for-price list rather than a research problem. |
| Semiconductor equipment (WFE) & automated test (ATE) | 2026-07-29 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept 2026-07-15 to 07-29, no entries — all 11 ATE names traded above their own historical multiple bands despite a −28.6% SOX drawdown, and the WFE names that matter are gated on August prints rather than on price. |
| BDCs & private-credit income | 2026-07-14 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept twice (Apr and Jul 2026) against a deteriorating private-credit backdrop — BDC secondary sales fell 40% amid lengthening default shadows — so the field was screened on dividend coverage and NAV discipline rather than on yield. |
| Consulting, IT services & enterprise IT | 2026-07-14 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept Jun and Jul 2026 — the useful distinction is revenue model, not sector: IT (Gartner) sells subscriptions and BAH sells government work, both uncorrelated to the project-based tech-spending cycle that drives ACN and CTSH. |
| REITs — US & Canada | 2026-07-14 (2 months ago2 个月前) | Swept twice (Apr and Jul 2026) on a discount-to-NAV/AFFO-durability basis, with the July run adding US net-lease and industrial names; AFFO coverage rather than headline yield was the operative filter throughout. |
| Small-cap AI, defense, space, drones & precision industrials | 2026-06-15 (3 months ago3 个月前) | Swept heavily in June 2026 (50+ names across four screens) and the field's own verdict was that it is "genuinely hard to screen right now" — quality is scarce, the graveyard of dead names is large, and story-over-revenue is the dominant failure mode. |
| Automotive ADAS & sensing semiconductors | 2026-06-12 (3 months ago3 个月前) | Swept 2026-06-12 over two rounds and 25 names as an INDI alternatives search — nothing cleared, and the pass also surfaced unresolved market-cap discrepancies between Yahoo and web sources on SITM, VICR and POWI. |
| Quantum computing | 2026-04-28 (5 months ago5 个月前) | Swept 2026-04-28 (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS) — only QBTS cleared the bar for even a speculative position, and only on a 40-45% pullback, because it was the sole name with a demonstrable near-term business rather than a roadmap. |