Playbook心得

2026 ran two sequential, opposite routs — software crashed in March on AI-displacement fear while AI-capex names ran up, then AI-capex crashed in July — so "tech is down" is never a usable statement without naming which act and which layer.

Measure valuation against a name's own historical multiple band, never against its 52-week high — a stock can be 40% off its high and still trade above every multiple it has ever sustained.

The watchlist's "Trim NNx fwd" convention computes its dollar level as NN x (price / forward P/E), so it scales with whatever EPS the market currently forecasts. On a compounder that is the point — the trim rises with earnings.

Two standard WACC inputs break on REITs in the same direction — the after-tax cost of debt (a REIT pays no entity tax, so the interest deduction is worth nothing) and CAPM's cost of equity (net-lease betas rank inversely to…

When a tax-law change forces a company to write a valuation allowance against its deferred tax assets and it later releases that allowance, GAAP net income takes a huge charge in one quarter and an equally huge credit in another.

When a company divests or discontinues a segment, vendor feeds restate the recent years to continuing operations but frequently leave the oldest years at the old total-company basis — so any CAGR computed across the boundary…

An entry zone is a derivative of a fair value, so it goes stale exactly when the fair value does — and a zone left above the current price makes every scan report the name as "still below its add zone," which reads as not yet…

When a prior analysis gates an upgrade on a falsifiable numeric test, the next earnings print arrives wrapped in management language that sounds like the test — "growth accelerated again", "momentum returned", "record backlog".

On ADRs, vendor feeds frequently apply the ADR ratio to the price field but not to the book-value-per-share field, and separately fail to convert the local-currency book value to USD.

The ADR data traps are properties of the depositary structure, not of foreign domicile.

Vendor feeds have been caught misreporting the exact figures that decide verdicts — FCF, margins, non-operating income — so any number the conclusion rests on gets pulled from the 10-K/10-Q or press release, not from a data feed.

A single-stock analysis that reads only the default portfolio file will systematically under-weight every name concentrated in the second account, and can recommend HOLD on a position it believes is a few hundred dollars when it…

A company with flat operating income and flat free cash flow can post double-digit EPS growth indefinitely by retiring shares, and no screener distinguishes that EPS from operating EPS.

Cabot Corp's CMP slurry business left in 2000 and now sits inside Entegris — CBT today is ~63% carbon black for tires, so including it in a semiconductor-materials basket flatters the group's numbers with an unrelated business.

Measured across 141 watchlist entries, the 0-10 conviction scale operates in practice as a 3.5-8.5 scale with 62% of names inside a 1.5-point band.

DYT compares current yield to a historical yield band, but the yield can only rise two ways — the dividend went up or the price went down — and DYT cannot tell them apart, so a collapsing price mechanically produces DYT's…

Yahoo's default close price is dividend-adjusted, so building a historical P/E, P/AFFO or P/B band from it understates every past multiple by the cumulative dividend yield — on a high-yield name this manufactures a false "it has…

Entegris FY2025 margins are corrupted in Yahoo and roic.ai simultaneously — the widely quoted ~41% EBITDA margin is fiction, the true figure is 13–17% — proving that cross-validating two vendor feeds is not an independent check.

As of July 2026, every AI-adjacent field swept traded above its own historical multiple band despite large drawdowns, because the drawdown is smaller than the preceding run-up — so drawdown-driven screens in AI-adjacent sectors…

The standard moat test reads margin compression as moat erosion, so stable margins read as an intact moat. But an incumbent under attack chooses between ceding volume and cutting price, and only the second shows up in margin.

ADR ticker lookups return clean, plausible data for an entirely different company — SCRYY resolves to SCOR SE not Screen Holdings, CPCAY to Cathay Pacific not Capcom — so always confirm the returned company name before using any foreign-listing data.

Forward P/E should sit below trailing P/E whenever earnings are expected to grow.

When a company issues warrants to a government or strategic investor and books them as a derivative liability rather than as equity, the mark-to-market runs through income — so the GAAP loss GROWS as the stock rises.

During a supply shortage a company can post its fastest revenue growth in years while losing unit share in every segment, because price and mix carry the whole increase.

Across the March 2026 screen series the same ranking held at every pass — application software offered the deepest value, then cybersecurity and infrastructure software, with hardware consistently weakest on risk/reward — so…

Screening sources keep surfacing companies that have been acquired, taken private, delisted or wound down — check this list before researching any unfamiliar name, because the research is wasted and the "cheap valuation" is often a stale artifact.

Net margin should always sit below operating margin — interest and tax subtract. When a screen shows net margin above operating margin, the excess did not come from the business.

A foreign company's reported ROE is denominated in its functional currency, not in USD — discounting a local-nominal return stream at a USD cost of equity credits the full nominal local return in the numerator while charging only…

A valuation supported by addressable-market size rather than realised revenue is a story, not a thesis — require the revenue line to exist and grow before any multiple is applied.

IQVIA-style prescription data measures US drug sales at list price while the company reports net of rebates, so the two figures for the same product in the same year can differ by the entire gross-to-net spread — up to ~70% of…

Shortlists published into a fear-priced tape have run 8-27% within two weeks on all three occasions recorded (2026-07-14, 07-29, 08-04), so the analysis layer is reliable.

For companies that co-fund assets with JV or SCIP-style partners, vendor "free cash flow" (operating cash flow minus capex) and the company's own "adjusted free cash flow" can differ by more than the entire capex line, because…

In 2026 the AI capital cycle shows up in financial statements as two simultaneous and opposite distortions: non-operating marks on private AI stakes INFLATE reported earnings, while capex or AI-delivery COGS DESTROY the free cash…

Under ASU 2016-01 a company must mark its equity holdings to fair value through net income, so a large private stake that IPOs or revalues can inject tens or hundreds of billions of non-operating, non-cash income into GAAP…

Yahoo and roic.ai report bank revenue as a net figure (roughly net interest income plus net fee income), which can understate the issuer's own reported total revenue by a third — making every vendor-derived P/S, revenue CAGR and…

For REITs that book acquisitions as sales-type or financing-receivable lease investments rather than as business combinations, Yahoo and roic.ai report an acquisition line of exactly zero while billions are being deployed, and…

Yahoo's forwardPE/forwardEps does not state which fiscal year it estimates, and it is frequently neither the current year nor a consistent one across tickers — sometimes a year already three-quarters reported, sometimes a year out.

If a platform's discovery algorithm can be tuned toward extraction, then its reported DAUs, hours and bookings measure the setting of that dial as much as they measure user demand — so a growth vintage produced by an…

Yahoo Finance misclassifies mark-to-market gains on strategic equity stakes as "Interest Income", inflating apparent non-operating yield to impossible levels — sanity-check interest income against the cash balance.

For platform businesses that pay out to creators, Yahoo's grossMargins field nets content/creator payouts and infrastructure out of gross profit and labels the result a gross margin.

For an issuer that reports in one currency but trades in another (CAD-reporting, USD-listed), Yahoo converts the PER-SHARE fields to the quote currency but leaves the AGGREGATE income-statement fields in the reporting currency…

Yahoo Finance computes dividendYield and trailingAnnualDividendYield off previousClose, but computes trailingPE off currentPrice, inside the same payload.

Yahoo Finance's insiderpurchases summary reports RSU vesting at $0.00 and option conversions at legacy strikes as open-market "purchases" — on RBLX it showed "+3.5M net shares purchased, 12.3% buy" during a period with literally…

For dual-class companies — especially foreign private issuers — Yahoo's sharesOutstanding field reports only the exchange-listed class, omitting unlisted super-voting shares; the same payload's marketCap silently uses the correct…

Whenever roic.ai's cfcapexpenditures is null, it publishes cffreecashflow equal to cfcashfromoper — FCF with no capex subtracted — and silently propagates the error into freecashflowpersh and prtofreecashflow.

Swept 2026-06-12 over two rounds and 25 names as an INDI alternatives search — nothing cleared, and the pass also surfaced unresolved market-cap discrepancies between Yahoo and web sources on SITM, VICR and POWI.

Brazil's central bank runs a consistent, repeated policy of building free public infrastructure that competes away the profit pool of each banking layer in turn — payments, then data, then interest rates, then installment credit…

Swept twice (Apr and Jul 2026) against a deteriorating private-credit backdrop — BDC secondary sales fell 40% amid lengthening default shadows — so the field was screened on dividend coverage and NAV discipline rather than on yield.

Broad "find value anywhere" screens have consistently underperformed field-specific ones in this repo — they surface names already covered elsewhere and, in the global case, produced an FX artifact mistaken for a discount.

Swept Jun and Jul 2026 — the useful distinction is revenue model, not sector: IT (Gartner) sells subscriptions and BAH sells government work, both uncorrelated to the project-based tech-spending cycle that drives ACN and CTSH.

Swept 2026-07-29 — since the user already holds BTC directly, coin-beta names are leverage on an existing position rather than diversification, so the only interesting question is which names have a real business independent of the coin price.

Swept 2026-03-21 for Visa-like asset-light toll-booth businesses — the field's quality is uniformly high so the binding constraint is price, not business selection, and in March only V and a handful of others were actually discounted.

Swept 2026-07-31 via NVO — the field is the largest therapeutic category in pharma history and is simultaneously the clearest case of a huge field with a losing incumbent: obesity volume compounds for decades while value per…

Swept 2026-07-29 — NTES (conviction 7.0) survived as a non-AI-levered survivor, but it carries China structural risk, which is a different risk class from the valuation risk the sweep was screening for.

Swept across five March 2026 screens — consistently the weakest risk/reward layer in the tech selloff (narrower moats, softer FCF) with NTAP/CDW/ZBRA the only names of interest; never refreshed since, so the entire field is stale by four months.

Swept 2026-07-29 and produced the best result of the entire July exercise — DOCS at conviction 7.0 and in its entry zone, because the field is not AI-narrative-levered and so did not participate in the run-up that left every adjacent field expensive.

Swept 2026-07-29 as the "unswept fields" pass and rejected by the user on business-model grounds rather than valuation — the durable finding is that the 2026 defensive rotation bought the label, not the cash flow.

Swept 2026-07-29 and the premise failed — Japan's apparent discount was an FX artifact (EWJ −8.4% ≈ yen −8.41%, while TOPIX set a record close), and Japanese AI names carry zero discount, with Advantest at 60x P/E and 28x P/B.

Swept 2026-06-10 across the full fuel-cycle stack (mining → enrichment → SMR → generation) — the durable finding is that the layers carry completely different risk types, so "nuclear exposure" is meaningless without naming the layer.

Swept 2026-07-29, no entries — 10 of 13 names traded above their own historical bands (LITE at 2.6x its own recent-high P/B) and three of the field's familiar names are no longer independently investable.

Swept 2026-04-28 (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS) — only QBTS cleared the bar for even a speculative position, and only on a 40-45% pullback, because it was the sole name with a demonstrable near-term business rather than a roadmap.

Swept twice (Apr and Jul 2026) on a discount-to-NAV/AFFO-durability basis, with the July run adding US net-lease and industrial names; AFFO coverage rather than headline yield was the operative filter throughout.

Swept 2026-07-29, no entries — the quality names (CGNX, ZBRA and peers) trade at 32-35x earnings despite the selloff, so the field is a watch-for-price list rather than a research problem.

Swept 2026-07-15 to 07-29, no entries — all 11 ATE names traded above their own historical multiple bands despite a −28.6% SOX drawdown, and the WFE names that matter are gated on August prints rather than on price.

Swept 2026-07-29, no gems — materials tracks fab UTILIZATION while equipment tracks fab CAPEX, so "materials is the defensive way to own semis" holds against capex cuts and inverts against utilization declines; in the July 2026…

Swept heavily in June 2026 (50+ names across four screens) and the field's own verdict was that it is "genuinely hard to screen right now" — quality is scarce, the graveyard of dead names is large, and story-over-revenue is the dominant failure mode.

The most heavily swept field in the repo (12+ screens, Mar–Jul 2026) — the March SaaSpocalypse produced genuine below-own-band value in application software, but no screen has ever been scored against outcomes, so the field's real lesson is still unread.