Companies公司
Every live name, in exactly one sleeve. Sleeves exist to make correlation visible — the thing sector folders hide.每一家在册公司，都只归入一个类别。分类的目的是让相关性变得可见——而这正是按行业分类会掩盖掉的东西。
Evergreen Compounders长期复利公司 34 names
Businesses we plan to hold for years. They grow steadily and rarely need attention.我们打算长期持有的公司。它们稳步增长，很少需要操心。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANH | 8.5 | $206.79 | 📋 Supply-chain SaaS niche leader, net cash, 29% FCF CAGR, 18yr Gartner WMS leader.📋 供应链 SaaS 细分领域领导者，净现金，29% 自由现金流复合增长率，连续 18 年 Gartner 仓库管理系统（WMS）领导者。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| V | 8.5 | $366.59 | 50% net margins, 68% op margins, 15.4% div CAGR. Widest moat in payments. Add $290-305. Trim $380+ (approaching).50% 净利润率，68% 营业利润率，15.4% 股息复合增长率。支付领域最宽的护城河。$290-305 增持。$380+ 减仓 （接近中）。 | 2026-03-21 | |
| MSFT | 8 | $494.62 | ❌ ZONE EXITED — +26.7% since 7/29.⭐ 处于买入区 $380-400。 Azure +40%（固定汇率），AI 年化营收 $37B、+123%。 | 2026-07-15 | |
| WDAY | 8 | $159.69 | 📋 12.6x fwd, 29% FCF CAGR, $26B backlog, 97% retention. Add $110-130. Trim $200+. FV $179-240.📋 12.6x 前瞻，29% 自由现金流复合增长率，$26B 积压订单，97% 留存率。$110-130 增持。$200+ 减仓。合理价值 $179-240。 | 2026-04-08 | |
| LDOS | 8 | $130.60 | ⭐ IN ZONE $115-135.⭐ 处于买入区间 $115-135。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| VEEV | 8 | $201.20 | 📋 Life-sciences vertical cloud monopoly. Zero debt, $6.5B net cash, 22% FCF CAGR. Vault (70% rev) unchallenged. Entry $155-168.📋 生命科学垂直云的垄断者。零债务，$6.5B 净现金，22% 自由现金流复合增长率。Vault（占收入 70%）无人能挑战。入场 $155-168。 | 2026-06-04 | |
| SHOP | 7.5 | $130.28 | 📋 27% rev CAGR, $2.0B clean FCF, $5.6B net cash. Shop Pay 150M buyers. FV $82-138 (base ~$107). Entry $96-108.📋 27% 收入复合增长率，$2.0B 干净的自由现金流，$5.6B 净现金。Shop Pay 有 150M 买家。合理价值 $82-138（基准约 $107）。入场 $96-108。 | 2026-05-06 | |
| FDS | 7.5 | $283.87 | 📋 Cheapest wide-moat data name — was. 14.4x fwd, 52.7/32.2/25.7% margins, ROIC 17%.📉 仅有的四只下跌股票之一。 正在向 ≤$265 的加仓位靠近。13.8x 前瞻市盈率，ASV +7.1% 且在加速，留存率 >95%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| DPZ | 7.5 | $350.47 | 📋 ⚠️ Downgrade watch. 81% ROIC, 20% FCF CAGR, Berkshire 9.7%.📋 ⚠️ 下调观察。 81% ROIC，20% 自由现金流复合增长率，伯克希尔持股 9.7%。 | 2026-04-29 | |
| SAP | 7 | $179.17 | 📋 Ran +20% out of zone.📋 上涨 +20% 脱离入场区间。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| ADI | 7 | $366.30 | 👀 🔴 Analyzed 7/29 — quality confirmed, price not. Business 8/10, entry 3/10.🔴 比 $280 的合理价值中值高约 35%。等 8/19 财报（原本需要在 $360 以下看到 >$1.0B 的计划内回购 —— 在 $377 这个条件已无意义）。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| PTC | 7 | $127.51 | 👀 On deck @ $115. 84% GM, op margin 25.5%→36.4%, ROE 43%, new $2B buyback thru FY28.15.7x 前瞻市盈率，目标价 $173.35，合理价值 $145-165。$115 的加仓位仍然很远。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| NOW | 7 | $118.14 | 🟡 RE-ANALYZED 8/04 — DOWNGRADED [8.0] → [7.0], FV $105-150 (central $130). HOLD, do not chase.🟡 [7.0] ⬇️ (原 8.0) 8/04 重新分析 — 下调 [8.0] → [7.0]，合理估值 $105-150（中值 $130）。持有，不要追高。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| INTU | 7 | $319.97 | 👀 On Deck — IN ZONE, gated on the 8/25 print. Entry $300-345 strong buy <$280.🆕 8/04 首次完整分析 —— 有史以来第一份文件，也是第一次给出信心评分 [7.0]，评级「累积买入」。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| GOOGL | 6.5 | $377.65 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/04 — first file ever. HOLD, DO NOT ADD. 🚩 The 18.9x P/E on every screener is wrong by half.[6.5] 🆕 8/04 分析 — 有史以来第一份文件。持有，不要加仓。 🚩 所有看盘软件显示的 18.9x 市盈率错了一半。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| ADBE | 6.5 | $253.81 | 👀 On Deck, gated on the CEO appointment. 🔻 FV cut $380-460 → $290-360; moat 7.5 → 6.0.🔻 8/04 分析 —— 下调评级 [7.5] → [6.5]，合理价值 $380-460 → $290-360，从「累积买入」降为「观察」。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| DOCU | 6.5 | $55.97 | E-sign moat; IAM pivot 11%→18% ARR target FY27. FCF $1.06B but SBC consumes 59%. Add $40-43 only if IAM progressing.电子签名护城河；IAM 转型，目标 FY27 ARR 占比 11%→18%。自由现金流 $1.06B，但股权激励（SBC）吞掉了 59%。 | 2026-05-06 | |
| TEAM | 6.5 | $99.98 | SBC consumes 96% of FCF — thesis intact, not cheap on true economics. Add <$68 only if guidance holds.股权激励（SBC）吞掉了自由现金流的 96% —— 投资论点依然成立，但按真实经济效益看并不便宜。只有在指引站得住时才在 <$68 加仓。 | 2026-04-26 | |
| QLYS | 6.5 | $135.75 | Quality intact, value gone. 42% FCF margin (31% SBC-adj), ROIC 31.4%, $677M net cash, buybacks 2.4× SBC.⚠️ 8/05 再次更正日期 —— 财报实际是 8/5 发布，不是 8/10；这一条目已经写错两次。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| ZS | 6.5 | $151.63 | $3.5B ARR (+25%), 80.7% GM, ~$1.78B net cash. 🚩 Headline FCF $808M is an SBC mirage — SBC ~25% of rev → SBC-adj FCF only ~$147M.$3.5B 年度经常性收入(ARR)(+25%),毛利率 80.7%,约 $1.78B 净现金。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| EFX | 6.5 | $187.02 | 📋 Credit-bureau oligopoly + The Work Number. FCF inflecting $133M→$1.13B+ as cloud capex rolls off → P/FCF ~13.6x.📋 征信机构寡头 + The Work Number。随着云资本开支减少，自由现金流拐点向上 $133M→$1.13B+ → P/FCF ~13.6x。对房贷周期敏感。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| AMZN | 6 | $277.42 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/04 — first file ever. HOLD, DO NOT ADD.🟡 [6.0] 🆕 8/04 分析 — 有史以来第一份文件。持有，不要加仓。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| SNPS | 6 | $383.82 | 👀 NOT — exited May 2026; prior tag was stale.🔴 加仓区间 $310-335；现价高出约 19%。等 8/26 财报（需要设计 IP 利润率 >28% 且环比增长）。 | 2026-07-28 | |
| IT | 6 | $185.79 | 📋 STILL GATED — the 8/4 print was quarter 1 of the 2 the gate requires (Q1 CY26 net CV addition was −$56M).📋 仍在门槛观察中 — 8/4 的财报只是门槛所需两个季度中的第 1 个（2026 财年 Q1 的合约价值净增为 −$56M）。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| TGT | 5.5 | $144.20 | 📋 Good-not-great, fairly-to-fully priced after +32% YTD. Dividend King (~55yr) but smallest hike in 55 years (+1.8%).📋 优秀但非卓越,在年初至今 +32% 后估值从合理到充分。股息之王(约 55 年)但55 年来最小的一次上调(+1.8%)。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| CRM | — | $181.50 | 📋 11.7x fwd, tgt $242. Agentforce catalyst. Add $155-170. Trim $250+.📋 11.7x 前瞻，目标价 $242。Agentforce 催化剂。加仓 $155-170。$250 以上减仓。 | — | |
| GWRE | — | $159.40 | Insurance SaaS, FCF improving. Add $120-130. Trim $200+.保险 SaaS，自由现金流在改善。加仓区间 $120-130。$200 以上减仓。 | — | |
| PCTY | — | $138.68 | 50% FCF CAGR. Add $88-96. Trim $150+.自由现金流复合增长率 50%。$88-96 加仓。$150 以上减仓。 | — | |
| DT | — | $50.86 | 🔬 /analyze PRIORITY #3 — held 14sh across two brokerages, never analyzed, no conviction score.⭐ /analyze 第 3 优先级 —— 分散在两家券商共持有 14 股，从未分析过，没有信心评分。 | — | |
| PANW | — | $319.00 | ✂️ Above trim $230+. Platform-consolidation thesis intact. Add $155-168.继续持有。距高点仅 −2.3%。87.3x 前瞻市盈率，目标价低于现价 6.5%。 | — | |
| CRWD | — | $181.80 | ✂️ Above trim $140+ (split-adj; 4-for-1 Jul 2 2026). Add $95-105.继续持有。板块龙头；需要非常大的跌幅才会抹掉收益。133.8x 前瞻市盈率，目标价低于现价 7.6%。 | — | |
| RBRK | — | $71.45 | 👀 Back into $70-80 add — but 110x fwd. Add only as a cyber swap. Trim $103+.已到 $70-80 的上沿，即将离开区间。122.7x 前瞻市盈率；网络安全板块已有 4 只持仓。只做置换，不做加仓。 | — | |
| FTNT | — | $149.98 | ⚠️ Removal candidate. 43.8x fwd, consensus tgt $135.57 is below spot, sleeve already deep. Earnings 7/29. Analyze or retire.⚠️ 待剔除候选。 43.8x 前瞻(市盈率)，市场一致目标价 $135.57 低于现价，该板块仓位已经很重。7/29 财报。做分析或淘汰。 | — | |
| SPGI | — | $424.36 | Financial data moat. Add $400-420. Trim $560+.金融数据护城河。加仓区间 $400-420。$560 以上减仓。 | — |
Income — Yield Today当期收益 7 names
Pays a real dividend now. We hold these mainly for the cash they pay out.现在就有实实在在的分红。我们持有它们，主要是为了这份现金收入。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAIN | 7.5 | $55.32 | 👀 Just above $50-54. Premium internally-managed BDC — the quality anchor.$50-54。又跑远了。 | 2026-04-08 | |
| TSLX | 6.5 | $17.68 | 📋 Best-in-class externally-managed BDC — non-accruals 0.6%, Moody's Baa2 (IG), ROE ~11.9%.📋 同类最佳的外部管理型 BDC——非应计 0.6%，穆迪 Baa2（投资级），ROE ~11.9%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| OBDC | 6 | $11.02 | 📋 0.765x NAV ($14.41), ~11.2% base yield now 1.0x covered after a cut.📋 0.765x NAV（$14.41），~11.2% 基础股息率，减派后现为 1.0x 覆盖。信用干净（非应计 1.0%，杠杆 1.13x 为 2 年最低）。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| VICI | 5.5 | $26.27 | 🔒 HOLD FOR THE COUPON — DO NOT ADD above $26.🔒 持有吃息 — $26 以上不要加仓。 博彩净租赁 REIT，6.85% 股息率，1.37x AFFO 覆盖率，73.2% 派息率，连续 7 年提高股息。 | 2026-08-03 | |
| ARCC | 5.5 | $19.17 | 🔒 HOLD — DO NOT ADD. Coverage broke below 1.0x. Largest listed BDC.🔒 持有 — 不要加仓。覆盖率已跌破 1.0x。 最大的上市 BDC。 | 2026-08-03 | |
| NLCP | 5 | $15.75 | 🔒 HOLD — do not add.🔒 持有 —— 不要加仓。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| O | — | $65.73 | 📋 Monthly dividend REIT, 4.96% yield, 30yr streak. The quality AHRT replacement. Entry $50-55.📋 按月分红的 REIT，股息率 4.96%，连续 30 年分红。优质的 AHRT 替代标的。买入区间 $50-55。 | — |
Income — Yield Tomorrow未来收益 10 names
Pays little today but grows the dividend fast. We buy now for the larger income later.现在分红不多，但分红涨得很快。我们现在买入，是为了以后更多的收入。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BR | 8.5 | $168.41 | ⭐ ANALYZED 8/04 — IN ZONE $150-180, re-opened. The "zone exited" call was made against a pre-FY26 fair value.⭐ 8/04 已分析 — 买入区间重新开启 $150-180。此前「已离开区间」的判断依据的是 FY26 之前的过时合理价值。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| ADP | 8.5 | $264.17 | 📋 51-year streak. 21.6x fwd, 2.67% yield, 20% FCF CAGR. Ran +7.5% further out. Add $195-210. Trim $280+.📋 51 年连续增长。 21.6x 前瞻，2.67% 股息率，20% 自由现金流复合增长率。又上涨 +7.5%，更偏离区间。加仓 $195-210。$280 以上减仓。 | 2026-03-30 | |
| TRI | 7.5 | $103.29 | 📋 Ran +20% out of the $82-98 zone. Catalyst: sold 51% of Global Print to KKR (~$500M).📋 上涨 +20% 脱离 $82-98 区间。催化剂：以 ~$500M 将 Global Print 51% 出售给 KKR。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| ETN | 7.5 | $386.26 | 📋 24.5x fwd, 1.10% yield, 19.4% EPS CAGR. Entry $300-320.📋 24.5x 前瞻，1.10% 股息率，19.4% EPS 复合增长率。入场 $300-320。 | 2026-03-21 | |
| EMR | 7 | $151.81 | 📋 69-year Dividend King. 21.2x fwd, 1.49% yield. Entry $105-118. Ran +12%.📋 69 年股息之王。 21.2x 前瞻，1.49% 股息率。入场 $105-118。已上涨 +12%。 | 2026-03-21 | |
| AZN | 7 | $161.50 | ⏳ ANALYZED 8/05. Large-cap pharma, 2.05% yield, 81.9% GM, ROIC 5.5%→14.0% in 3yrs, zero dilution 4yrs, net debt/EBITDA 1.18x.🟢 2026-08-05 分析 —— 首份文件。观察；$150 时转为逐步买入。 填补医疗健康缺口的优质答案。 | 2026-08-05 | |
| ACN | 6.5 | $164.66 | 📋 +22% in 14 days. $2.5B Microsoft AI pact, NATO contract, buyback raised 62% to $7.5B FY26. 4.23% yield, 11.2x fwd, FCF $10.87B.📋 14 天内 +22%。 $2.5B 微软 AI 合作，NATO 合同，FY26 回购上调 62% 至 $7.5B。4.23% 股息率，11.2x 前瞻，自由现金流 $10.87B。 | 2026-06-11 | |
| BMY | 6 | $63.60 | 📋 10.3x fwd, 4.03% yield, 71% GM, ROE 43.6%. Growth portfolio (Cobenfy, Reblozyl, Camzyos) +12% offsetting −6% legacy.📋 前瞻市盈率 10.3x,股息率 4.03%,毛利率 71%,ROE 43.6%。增长组合(Cobenfy、Reblozyl、Camzyos)+12%,抵消了老产品 −6%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| IBM | 6 | $227.55 | 📋 Q2 (7/22) partially resolved the fork: revenue $17.16B +1% (1.8% light), but software +5% to $7.76B (Red Hat +11%, Data +19%)…📋 Q2（7/22）部分化解了分歧：营收 $17.16B +1%（比预期低 1.8%），但软件 +5% 至 $7.76B（Red Hat +11%，数据… | 2026-07-14 | |
| ZTS | 5.5 | $76.87 | 🔴 DOWNGRADED 8/06 from [6.5] — second FY26 guidance cut.🔴 8/06 下调 —— 就在次日早晨，由 [6.5] 降至 [5.5]。等待的那道关卡给出了否定答案：第二次下调指引。 | 2026-08-05 |
AI & Infrastructure CapexAI 与基础设施资本开支 15 names
Sells the chips, hardware, and power behind the AI build-out.为AI基建提供芯片、硬件和电力。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 8.5 | $416.42 | ⭐ IN ZONE $360-420 — top edge, final day(s). +12.4% since 7/29. 21.4x fwd, tgt $527.88 (+26.8%).⭐ 区间内最后一两天。 21.4x 前瞻市盈率，目标价 $527.88（+26.8%），强烈买入。 | 2026-06-12 | |
| KLAC | 7.5 | $194.68 | Zone $165-190 is now exited at 29.7x fwd — re-enters below $190; do not add here.✅ 已在窗口期内建仓 —— Beta 40 股 @ $185.52 · Self 3 股 @ $183.11（约 43 股，成本约 $7,970，现值约 $8,371）。 | 2026-07-28 | |
| ORCL | 7 | $119.96 | 👀 Approaching $110-115 stage. RPO $638B (+363%), OCI +93%; $75B of new AI contracts now BYO-hw/prepaid = real de-risking.❌ $110-115 的建仓位现在比现价低 24%。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| AMAT | 6.5 | $452.11 | 👀 Analyzed 7/29 — the drawdown did NOT create the entry.❌ 入场区间 $300-350 现在比现价低 56%。 32.1x 前瞻市盈率。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| TSM | 6.5 | $417.17 | 📋 🔴 ANALYZED 8/04 — first file ever.📋 🔴 8/04 分析 —— 史上第一份报告。信心度从 [7.0] 下调至 [6.5]，而且是在把它加入自选的同一天之内，原因是那次扫描本身的一处数据错误。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| GLW | 6.5 | $126.01 | 📋 Real AI-optical transformation at fair value.📋 合理估值下真实的 AI-光通信转型。 | 2026-07-28 | |
| QCOM | 5.5 | $162.67 | 📋 Analyzed 8/04 — HOLD, do not add.📋 8/04 已完成分析 —— 持有，不要加仓。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| INTC | 4.5 | $100.45 | 🔴 ✂️ TRIM 30-40% of Beta. FV $55-85 — spot is above the top.🔴 ✂️ 8/04 已完成分析 —— 减持 Beta 账户 30-40%。[4.5] 合理价值 $55-85；现价已高于这个区间的上沿。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| MU | 4 | $892.67 | 🔴 ✂️ TRIM NOW / EXIT — analyzed 8/04, first file ever.🔴 [4.0] 8/04 分析 — 确认减持/清仓，而且是在充分肯定多头理由之后得出的结论，不是无视它。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| ANET | — | $169.71 | AI datacenter networking. 38.0x fwd. Add $140-158. Trim $210+.AI 数据中心网络设备。38.0x 前瞻(市盈率)。加仓区间 $140-158。$210 以上减仓。 | — | |
| AMD | — | $482.05 | 🔬 /analyze PRIORITY #5 — ~14.9sh held (Beta 10 + Roth 4.914, ≈$7,180), never analyzed, no conviction score.🔬 /analyze 第 5 优先级 —— 约持有 14.9 股（Beta 账户 10 股 + Roth 4.914 股，约 $7,180），从未分析过，没有信心评分。 | — | |
| CEG | — | $259.82 | 🔬 /analyze priority #3. Largest US nuclear fleet (21 reactors), Meta + Microsoft PPAs, FCF-positive.🔬 /analyze 优先级 #3。 美国最大的核电机队（21 座反应堆），与 Meta + Microsoft 签有购电协议（PPA），自由现金流为正。 | — | |
| BWXT | — | $169.67 | 🔬 /analyze priority #4. Sole-source US Navy nuclear propulsion + BWRX-300 SMR. 32.7x fwd, tgt $238 (+40%).🔬 /analyze 优先级 #4。 美国海军核动力推进的独家供应商 + BWRX-300 小型模块化反应堆（SMR）。 | — | |
| SANM | — | $172.43 | ✂️ Trim window closing.✂️ 减仓窗口正在关闭。 | — | |
| DOCN | — | $112.51 | Real AI re-rating: AI ARR +221%, AI-Native Cloud + Inference Engine, FY27 growth guide ~50%, S&P MidCap 400 promotion. 60.2x fwd.真实的 AI 价值重估:AI 年度经常性收入(ARR)+221%,AI 原生云 + 推理引擎(Inference Engine),FY27 增长指引约 50%,晋升入 S&P MidCap 400 指数。 | — |
Re-Rating Plays价值重估机会 11 names
Sound companies the market has priced low. We wait for the price to catch up to the value.基本面扎实、但被市场低估的公司。我们等价格慢慢追上它们的价值。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPN | 7.5 | $87.46 | 📋 5.4x fwd — the cheapest multiple on this entire watchlist, and the zone is still blown (+15% in 14 days).📋 5.4x 前瞻——整个观察列表里最便宜的估值，但入场区间仍被突破（14 天内 +15%）。Q1'26 超预期，全年指引维持。Worldpay 整合进度超前。 | 2026-06-04 | |
| GDDY | 6.5 | $89.09 | ⭐ IN ZONE ≤$95 — ANALYZED 8/04, first file ever. Passes this sleeve's test cleanly: a specific fixable problem with a date.⭐ 区间内 ≤$95 —— 8/04 分析，史上第一份报告。7/31 单日 −21.1%，市场把一份营收指引误读成了 AI 颠覆。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| CTSH | 6.5 | $50.31 | 👀 ⚠️ Earnings 7/29. 8.1x fwd, 2.81% yield (~2x 5yr avg), 12.7% FCF yield, near-zero debt, $2B buyback.👀 ⚠️ 7/29 财报。 8.1x 前瞻，2.81% 股息率（~2x 5 年均值），12.7% 自由现金流收益率，近乎零负债，$2B 回购。 | 2026-07-09 | |
| EPAM | 6 | $100.40 | 📋 +19% in 14 days.📋 14 天内 +19%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| CDW | 6 | $144.03 | 📋 Fairly valued, not cheap. 12.2x fwd, 1.83% yield. Q1'26 rev +9.2% but op income only +1.8% (component-cost pressure).📋 估值合理,不便宜。前瞻市盈率 12.2x,股息率 1.83%。Q1'26 收入 +9.2%,但营业利润仅 +1.8%(零部件成本压力)。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| FISV | 5.5 | $54.21 | 👀 ⚠️ Earnings 8/6 — binary. 6.1x fwd, −62% off high.⚠️ 8/6 财报 —— 二元结果，而且它完全没有参与这轮上涨。 6.1x 前瞻市盈率，距高点 −61%，目标价 $66.63。 | 2026-07-09 | |
| PYPL | 5.5 | $58.32 | 🔴 Stripe + Advent joint bid: $60.50/share, >$53B, ~28% premium.🔴 Stripe + Advent 联合报价:每股 $60.50,超过 $53B,约 28% 溢价。 这现在是并购套利,不再是投资论点 — 信念评分不再决定价格。 | 2026-06-04 | |
| PLAB | 5 | $27.94 | 🔴 Resolved 7/29: neither value nor trap — an adequate cyclical at a modestly cheap price.🔴 7/29 结论：既非价值也非陷阱 —— 一家在略偏便宜价位上还算过得去的周期股。未能通过本板块“问题可修复”的测试。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| NXPI | 5 | $240.98 | 👀 🔴 Analyzed 7/29.🔴 合理价值 $200-235；现价处于上沿。等 Q1'27 营收（>$3,900M = 真正的拐点；$3,600-3,700M = 同一部老电影）。低于 $200 加仓。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| TDC | 5 | $29.19 | 10.2x fwd, ~8.8x P/FCF, $285M FCF, 8.5% share reduction. Speculative value on a depreciating moat. Buy $20-22.前瞻市盈率 10.2x,约 8.8x P/FCF,$285M 自由现金流,股份减少 8.5%。押注于一条正在贬值的护城河的投机型价值。$20-22 买入。 | 2026-03-21 | |
| BDC | — | $104.93 | 🔬 /analyze priority #5. Industrial networking/IoT. 10.8x fwd, strongbuy consensus, tgt $153 (+46%), −34% off high.🔬 /analyze 优先级 #5。 工业网络/物联网。前瞻市盈率 10.8x,一致评级为强力买入,目标价 $153(+46%),较高点 −34%。 | — |
Structural-Risk Sleeve结构性风险 2 names
Higher reward with one known long-term risk — regulation, geography, or a single customer.回报更高，但有一个明确的长期风险——政策、地域，或过度依赖单一客户。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCEHY | 7.5 | $57.75 | 👀 Approaching the low-$50s add. The quality anchor of the sleeve.$50 出头加仓。12.2x 前瞻市盈率，目标价 $97.91（+55.7%）。⚠️ 请用 0700.HK 执行，不要用流动性稀薄的 ADR。 | 2026-07-15 | |
| BABA | 7 | $115.19 | 📋 Cheaper, higher-variance value play.📋 更便宜、波动更大的价值股。 | 2026-07-15 |
Speculative & Micro投机与微型股 5 names
Small, early, or unproven. Can multiply, or go to zero. Small positions only.规模小、处于早期或尚未验证。可能翻很多倍，也可能归零。只小仓位持有。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEU | 7.5 | $169.65 | 📋 Top edge of $145-170. Only US-licensed HALEU producer.📋 处于 $145-170 区间的上沿。美国唯一持牌的 HALEU（高丰度低浓铀）生产商。 | 2026-06-11 | |
| UEC | 6.5 | $10.73 | ❌ JUST ABOVE THE TOP EDGE — +18.7% since 7/29. Zone $8.50-10.50.⭐ 处于买入区 $8.50-10.50。 美国最大的持牌原地浸出（ISR）铀产能（12M lbs/yr），$794M 流动资产，零债务，Burke Hollow 已投产。 | 2026-06-10 | |
| QBTS | 5 | $16.21 | Only quantum name with 100+ production enterprise customers, 179% FY2025 rev growth, 83% GM, $884M cash, 12yr runway.唯一拥有 100+ 生产环境企业客户的量子计算公司,FY2025 收入增长 179%,毛利率 83%,$884M 现金,12 年运营资金跑道。 | 2026-04-28 | |
| NVTS | 4 | $10.01 | GaN/SiC power semis mid-pivot toward AI datacenter power (NVIDIA MGX/800V HVDC).GaN/SiC 功率半导体,正转向 AI 数据中心供电(NVIDIA MGX/800V HVDC)。 | 2026-07-10 | |
| VRRM | — | $4.18 | 🔴 DISTRESSED — 3 gates, none met. Avis Budget terminated its contract May 2026 → −75%+, CEO departed, fraud suits filed.🔴 陷入困境 — 3 道门槛,一道未达。 Avis Budget 于 2026 年 5 月终止合同 → −75%+,CEO 离职,欺诈诉讼已提起。 | 2026-06-12 |
Correlation groups关联分组 companies that fail for the same reason会因同一原因一起出问题的公司
| Cluster分组 | Names公司 | Shared failure mode共同风险点 | Rule规则 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 AI-services repricing | ACN CTSH EPAM IBM | One bet: does AI destroy labor-arbitrage IT services? They rise and fall together — proven twice now (−40% together, then +17-22% together). | Manage as one position. Do not add a second name to raise exposure. |
| 🔴 AI capex | AVGO KLAC AMAT ANET AMD INTC QCOM GLW ORCL SANM DOCN CEG BWXT | Datacenter buildout pace. SOX −28.6% (peak 6/22 → 7/29), $3.3T of sector cap gone in 5 weeks — every name fell regardless of its own results. | Size the bucket, not the name. (ORCL's own analysis says this.) |
| 🟠 Cybersecurity | PANW CRWD QLYS RBRK ZS CHKP FTNT | Platform bundling by Microsoft/PANW/CRWD, plus sector-wide multiple de-ratings that hit good and bad alike (QLYS −20% in 9 days on no company news). | 4 held = deep. New entries are swaps, not adds. |
| 🟠 BDC / credit | MAIN ARCC TSLX OBDC | Rate cuts compress NII; spread widening erodes NAV. All four have now cut or broken base-dividend coverage — ARCC fell to 0.98x on 8/3. | MAIN is the quality anchor. |
| 🔴 Rate-duration factor (new 8/3 NLCP removed 8/4) | VICI ARCC O MAIN TSLX OBDC | One factor, not six names. Every one re-prices off the 10yr (4.70%, +71bp off the Feb trough). | Size the factor once, not each name. |
| 🟠 Cannabis / regulatory-arbitrage (new 8/4) | NLCP | Moved out of rate-duration — it never loaded on the factor. | ~1.1% of Beta, ~0.9% of Self. Sized fine; the categorisation was the error. |
| 🟠 Pharma patent-cliff (new 8/05) | AZN BMY ZTS (NVO ) | Not "healthcare" — one failure mode: an expiring monopoly against a pipeline that has to replace it in time. | Own ONE of AZN/BMY, not both — they are the same trade with opposite risk profiles. |
| 🟡 Govt / defense services | LDOS BAH ACN | Federal budget + DOGE-style program risk. | LDOS is the upgrade over BAH — don't hold both. |
| 🟡 Financial data | SPGI TRI FDS EFX IT | The same AI-disruption-to-data narrative, resolving differently per name (FDS ASV accelerating vs. IT's CV collapsing). | FDS anchors. IT is gated. |
| 🟡 Nuclear / uranium | LEU UEC CEG BWXT (CCJ 🪦) | Uranium spot + DOE/regulatory policy. LEU and CCJ share the same DOE/Russian-sanctions axis — CCJ would concentrate, not diversify. | Combined speculative sizing. |
| 🟡 China / VIE | TCEHY BABA | Regulatory + delisting. Structural, not cyclical. | Combined starter sizing. TCEHY is the core, BABA the variance. |
Removed companies已移除的公司 kept on file so a screen does not add them again保留记录，以免筛选时又把它们加回来
| Ticker代码 | Price价格 | Out移除时间 | Status状态 | Why it left移除原因 | Re-entry trigger重新加入的条件 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AHRT | $7.11 | 07-28 | ⚰️ Dead | Dead capital, revenue declining. ✅ Confirmed sold 7/28 — the watchlist had been carrying a stale tag across 3 scans. | None. Replace with O. |
| SMR | $8.22 | 07-28 | ⚰️ Dead | −85.7% off high, fwd P/E −11.5, revenue 2033. Class action, Citi $9 PT. | None. Redeploy → LEU / BWXT. |
| EVGO | $1.63 | 07-28 | ⚰️ Dead | [4.5] −68.5% off high, fwd P/E −4.9. Thesis was "FCF positive 2028-2031" — the equity is pricing that the dilution + DOE-loan math broke first. Altman Z 0.44. | None. Tesla NACS is a structural moat threat. |
| SNDK | $1,096 | 07-28 | 🌱 Revisit | [3.5] Peak-cycle commodity. GM 22.5%→78.3% in 4 quarters on pure NAND price. Honest FV range $250–$2,200 — a 9x spread. Fails §0: cannot say whether it's priced in. | 2-3x book (~$190-280) after a confirmed cycle turn. |
| AMKR | $45.69 | 07-28 | 🌱 Revisit | [4.0] Value trap. Record quarter at only 16.8% GM; 2026 capex ~3x → FCF ≈ −$1.0 to −$1.6B. TSMC is both partner and its most dangerous competitor. Graham IV $27.10 — stock 70% above it. | High-$20s/low-$30s AND FCF positive. |
| CCJ | $86.38 | 07-31 | 🌱 Revisit | [4.0] ✅ Refreshed — removed from Speculative sleeve (a $37.6B profitable net-cash miner can't go to zero; it was misfiled). FV $45-70, price 76% above the $49 centre. | Sub-$55 AND the Westinghouse S-1 shows contracted backlog (not "91 opportunities"). Full size sub-$42. |
| AME | $241.43 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] −1.3% off its 52wk high, entry ($170-185) stale, 27.4x fwd. Quality industrial compounder — nothing wrong with it, nothing to do. | Drawdown >25% (~$180). |
| ALL | $272.42 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] −0.1% off its 52wk high. 10.3x fwd, entry ($175-190) stale. P&C insurance, massive FCF. | Drawdown >25% (~$205), or if a P&C sleeve is wanted. |
| LFUS | $392.05 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Circuit protection leader (~30% share), entry ($155-175) stale 2.2x, 22.7x fwd. | Drawdown >30% (~$275). |
| HUBB | $483.66 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Utility infra / grid modernization, entry ($300-320) stale, 21.6x fwd, −14.5% off high. | Back to $340-380. |
| FFIV | $403.46 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] App delivery / multi-cloud security. Zero debt, 30%+ FCF CAGR. Entry ($200-215) stale — stock ~doubled. −7.3% off high. | Drawdown >30% (~$285). |
| NTAP | $174.53 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] ONTAP + data-gravity moat. Entry ($90-100) stale, 17.7x fwd, −9.5% off high. | Back to $120-140. |
| TEL | $214.29 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] World's largest connector maker, 14yr growth streak, FCF doubled to $3.2B. Entry ($130-145) stale, 16.5x fwd. | Back to $160-180. |
| ITRI | $107.02 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Smart grid/metering turnaround. +28.2% in 14 days — biggest single move on the list; entry ($72-82) blown out. 16.1x fwd. | Back to $80-90. |
| FTNT | $153.22 | 07-29 | 💤 Dormant | [—] ⚠️ Retired after 3 passes with the same verdict. Reported 7/29 (+2.2%) and consensus target $135.57 is still 12% BELOW spot; 44.7x fwd, only −10.1% off high. | Target moves above spot, or a cyber slot opens via a trim. |
| UNH | $428.79 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Dominant franchise, 19.1x fwd, 2.22% yield. Entry ($220-250) stale — fully recovered, −7.1% off high. DOJ probe risk. | Drawdown >25% (~$320). |
| CHKP | $123.11 | 08-04 | 🌱 Revisit | [5.0] → [4.0]. The gate failed on its own terms. | Product revenue growth positive 2 consecutive quarters — then a fresh /analyze. |