Companies公司
Every live name, in exactly one sleeve. Sleeves exist to make correlation visible — the thing sector folders hide.每一家在册公司，都只归入一个类别。分类的目的是让相关性变得可见——而这正是按行业分类会掩盖掉的东西。
Evergreen Compounders长期复利公司 48 names
Wide-moat compounders meant to be owned for years. They grow steadily and rarely need attention.拥有宽阔护城河的复利型公司，适合持有多年。它们稳步增长，很少需要操心。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEEV | 8.5 | $279.92 | 📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — conviction UP 8.0→8.5, but the price call flips to WATCH (business held, multiple moved).8/27 重新分析——信念上调 8.0→8.5（基本面），但价格判断转为 WATCH。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| MANH | 8 | $199.65 | ⏳ DEFER to the 10/27 print — RE-ANALYZED 9/28, conviction 8.5→8.0.⏳ 推迟到 10/27 财报——2026-09-28 重新分析，信心 8.5→8.0。 | 2026-09-28 | |
| GOOGL | 7.5 | $342.83 | 🔄 RE-ANALYZED 9/26 — ACCUMULATE [7.5], up from [7.0].这次上调来自两个有确切日期、且是永久性的利空出清，而不是股价波动（自 8/28 仅 +1.0%）：✅ 9/16——Brinkema 法官 106… | 2026-09-26 | |
| MSFT | 7.5 | $511.82 | 🔒 Re-analyzed 8/27 — BUY→HOLD, conviction 8.0→7.5.8/27 重新分析——买入→持有，信念 8.0→7.5。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| LDOS | 7.5 | $122.28 | ✅ IN $111-131 — mid-band (54th pctile) | RE-ANALYZED 9/28 — conviction 8.0→7.5.🔵 2026-09-28 重新分析——信心 8.0→7.5。 | 2026-09-28 | |
| FDS | 7.5 | $268.50 | 📋 Cheapest wide-moat data name — was. 14.4x fwd, 52.7/32.2/25.7% margins, ROIC 17%.📉 仅有的四只下跌股票之一。 正在向 ≤$265 的加仓位靠近。 13.8x 前瞻市盈率，ASV +7.1% 且在加速，留存率 >95%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| MA | 7.5 | $568.60 | 🟢 ANALYZED 9/10 — ACCUMULATE, sleeve-vacancy add (the V-peer gap).🟢 9/10 分析——增持，填补仓位空缺（对标 V 的同业缺口）。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| SAP | 7 | $209.06 | ✂️ Re-analyzed 8/27 — →TRIM, conviction 7.0 held (quality unchanged, valuation moved).8/27 重新分析——持有→减持，信念维持 7.0（质量不变，估值移动）。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| ADI | 7 | $393.60 | 👀 🔴 Analyzed 7/29 — quality confirmed, price not. Business 8/10, entry 3/10.🔴 比 $280 的合理价值中值高约 35%。 等 8/19 财报（原本需要在 $360 以下看到 >$1.0B 的计划内回购 —— 在 $377 这个条件已无意义）。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| PTC | 7 | $138.71 | 👀 On deck @ $115. 84% GM, op margin 25.5%→36.4%, ROE 43%, new $2B buyback thru FY28.15.7x 前瞻市盈率，目标价 $173.35，合理价值 $145-165。 $115 的加仓位仍然很远。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| NOW | 7 | $130.86 | 🟡 RE-ANALYZED 8/04 — DOWNGRADED [8.0] → [7.0], FV $105-150 (central $130). HOLD, do not chase.🟡 [7.0] ⬇️ (原 8.0) 8/04 重新分析 — 下调 [8.0] → [7.0]，合理估值 $105-150（中值 $130）。 持有，不要追高。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| CRM | 7 | $228.65 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — ACCUMULATE, first score.8/27 分析——增持，首次评分 [7.0]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| INTU | 7 | $269.44 | ✅ A2026-09-22 — ACCUMULATE, conviction [7.5]→[7.0].✅ A2026-09-22 —— 加仓，信心 [7.5]→[7.0]。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| SHOP | 7 | $142.24 | 📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, conviction 7.5→7.0 (business held, price ran past it).8/27 重新分析——WATCH，信念 7.5→7.0（基本面稳，价格跑过头）。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| PANW | 7 | $391.22 | 📋 Re-analyzed 9/16 — WATCH, +0.5.9/16 复盘——WATCH，评分 [7.0]，较 8/27 上调 +0.5。 | 2026-09-16 | |
| QLYS | 7 | $173.32 | ✂️ A2026-09-22 /value — TRIM. FV RAISED $120-150 → $145-175 entry $125-140 trim 23x fwd.✂️ A2026-09-22 /value —— 减持。 合理价值上调 $120-150 → $145-175 买入区间 $125-140 减持 23x 前瞻。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| V | 7 | $369.62 | ✂️ Re-analyzed 8/27 — BUY→TRIM, conviction 8.5→7.0.8/27 重新分析——买入→减持，信念 8.5→7.0。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| BKNG | 7 | $165.24 | 🟢 ANALYZED 9/10 — ACCUMULATE, IN ZONE. OTA duopoly, ROIC 49→53%, FCF-funded buybacks (−6.6%/yr).🟢 9/10 分析——增持，处于入场区间内。 在线旅行社双寡头之一，ROIC 从 49% 升至 53%，自由现金流支撑的回购（股本每年 −6.6%）。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| ADBE | 6.8 | $229.73 | 🔄 A2026-09-10 — Q3 beat + internal CEO: WATCH [6.5]→[6.8] (NOT the pre-registered [7.0]).🔄 A2026-09-10 —— 第三季度超预期 + 内部人选出任 CEO：观察 [6.5]→[6.8]（并非预先设定的 [7.0]）。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| WDAY | 6.5 | $188.86 | 📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — BUY→ACCUMULATE, conviction 8.0→6.5.8/27 重新分析——买入→增持，信念 8.0→6.5。 "12.6x fwd 便宜"实为雅虎按 FY2028 计价，真实前瞻约 18x。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| GWRE | 6.5 | $144.70 | ✅ RE-ANALYZED 9/06 post-print — HOLD→ACCUMULATE.9/06 财报后重新分析——持有→增持 [6.5]。 | 2026-09-06 | |
| DOCU | 6.5 | $66.90 | ✅ RE-ANALYZED 9/16 off the 9/03 Q2 FY27 print — HOLD, conviction 6.0 → 6.5.9/16 基于 9/03 Q2 FY27 财报重新分析——持有，信念 6.0 → 6.5。 | 2026-09-16 | |
| TEAM | 6.5 | $178.53 | 🟡 RE-ANALYZED 8/07 — HOLD. Score unchanged, every input behind it changed.🟡 [6.5] 已于 8/07 重新分析 —— 持有。 评分没变，但支撑这个评分的每一个输入都变了。 | 2026-08-07 | |
| DT | 6.5 | $57.34 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/06 — first file ever, first conviction score. HOLD. Both withdrawn zones re-derived.🟡 8/06 首次分析 — 首个文件、首个信心评分。 持有不动。 两个被撤回的区间已重新推导。 | 2026-08-06 | |
| RBRK | 6.5 | $113.53 | ✂️ Analyzed 8/27 — HOLD, first score.8/27 分析——持有，首次评分 [6.5]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| ZS | 6.5 | $200.98 | $3.5B ARR (+25%), 80.7% GM, ~$1.78B net cash. 🚩 Headline FCF $808M is an SBC mirage — SBC ~25% of rev → SBC-adj FCF only ~$147M.$3.5B 年度经常性收入(ARR)(+25%),毛利率 80.7%,约 $1.78B 净现金。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| EFX | 6.5 | $145.97 | 📋 Credit-bureau oligopoly + The Work Number. FCF inflecting $133M→$1.13B+ as cloud capex rolls off → P/FCF ~13.6x.📋 征信机构寡头 + The Work Number。 随着云资本开支减少，自由现金流拐点向上 $133M→$1.13B+ → P/FCF ~13.6x。 对房贷周期敏感。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| DPZ | 6.5 | $291.88 | ⏳ Re-analyzed 9/23 — DEFER until the 10/13 print. Conviction 7.0→6.5.9/23 重新分析——DEFER（暂缓判断），等 10/13 财报。 信念 7.0→6.5。 | 2026-09-23 | |
| ISRG | 6.5 | $415.15 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, first score.8/27 分析——WATCH，首次评分 [6.5]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| OLED | 6.5 | $76.08 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 磷光 OLED 知识产权的近乎垄断授权商，零负债，毛利率约 76%，连续 9 年提高股息。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| STZ | 6.5 | $112.92 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| MTD | 6.5 | $1,540.28 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH (quality > price). | 2026-09-10 | |
| AMZN | 6.3 | $247.10 | 🔄 RE-ANALYZED 8/28 (/analyze-from-before) — HOLD [6.0]→[6.3], no letter change.🔄 8/28 重新分析——持有 [6.0]→[6.3]，字母评级未变：自 8/04 基线无新季度，基本面全部延续；价格 -7.6%（$277→$256）移至自身 $225-290… | 2026-08-28 | |
| META | 6 | $721.55 | 🔴 RE-ANALYZED 8/18 — DOWNGRADED [6.5] → [6.0]. HOLD, DO NOT ADD.8/27 重新分析——持有，信念 6.0→6.3。 | 2026-08-18 | |
| AAPL | 6 | $339.61 | 🔄 A2026-09-10 — Cook→Ternus CEO change (Sep 1): WATCH [6.5]→[6.0].🔄 A2026-09-10 —— 库克交棒 Ternus 出任 CEO（9 月 1 日生效）：观察 [6.5]→[6.0]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| CRWD | 6 | $259.56 | ✂️ Re-analyzed 9/16 — TRIM, conviction at 6.0.9/16 重新分析——减持，信念 6.0 维持。 相较 8/27 基线，结构/趋势条目 100% 持续：所有基本面条目均为「已延续」或「已刷新」。 | 2026-09-16 | |
| OKTA | 6 | $201.49 | ✂️ Analyzed 8/27 — TRIM, first score.8/27 分析——减持，首次评分 [6.0]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| SNPS | 6 | $418.46 | 👀 NOT — exited May 2026; prior tag was stale.🔴 加仓区间 $310-335；现价高出约 19%。 等 8/26 财报（需要设计 IP 利润率 >28% 且环比增长）。 | 2026-07-28 | |
| SPGI | 6 | $397.65 | 📋 ANALYZED 8/12 — first file ever. Great business, fair price, do not add.📋 8/12 分析完成——史上第一份文件。 优秀的公司，合理的价格，不要加仓。 | 2026-08-12 | |
| IT | 6 | $186.34 | 📋 STILL GATED — Gartner (IT), the Magic Quadrant research franchise, remains gated: the 8/4 print was quarter 1 of the 2 the gate requires.📋 仍在门槛观察中 — 8/4 的财报只是门槛所需两个季度中的第 1 个（2026 财年 Q1 的合约价值净增为 −$56M）。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| HON | 6 | $211.27 | 📋 ANALYZED 8/06 — first file ever. Good business, full price.📋 2026-08-06 分析 —— 首份档案。 好生意，价格不对。 | 2026-08-06 | |
| MEDP | 6 | $615.84 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH. | 2026-09-10 | |
| PCTY | 5.5 | $144.25 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — HOLD, first score.8/27 分析——持有，首次评分 [5.5]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| TGT | 5.5 | $158.89 | 📋 Good-not-great, fairly-to-fully priced after +32% YTD. Dividend King (~55yr) but smallest hike in 55 years (+1.8%).8/27 重新分析——WATCH，信念 5.5→6.0。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| IBM | 5.5 | $221.44 | 🔴 DOWNGRADED 8/12 from [6.0] — re-analyzed after the Q2 print.🔴 8/12 从 [6.0] 下调至 [5.5]——Q2 财报后重新分析。 已从「收入—未来股息」板块移出，它不再符合该板块标准。 | 2026-08-12 | |
| LHX | 5.5 | $238.67 | 👀 ANALYZED 8/19 — first file ever. WATCH; the entry is ~10% below and two shocks just delivered most of the way.👀 2026-08-19 分析 —— 首份档案。 观望；买入区间在现价下方约 10%，而最近两次冲击已经走完了大部分距离。 | 2026-08-19 | |
| MNDY | 5.5 | $78.62 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH, not tracked-actionable. Work-management SaaS on a guide-driven de-rate. FV $66-124 (wide). Trim 28x fwd. | 2026-09-10 | |
| FICO | 5.5 | $840.88 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/06 — WATCH. | 2026-09-06 |
Income — Yield Today当期收益 12 names
Pays a real dividend now. Owned mainly for the cash it pays out.现在就有实实在在的分红。持有它主要是为了这份现金收入。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAIN | 7 | $55.15 | 🔒 Re-analyzed 8/27 — BUY→HOLD, conviction 7.5→7.0. Premium internally-managed BDC — the quality anchor.8/27 重新分析——买入→持有，信念 7.5→7.0。 优质内部管理型 BDC——质量锚。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| TSLX | 6.5 | $18.20 | 📋 Best-in-class externally-managed BDC — non-accruals 0.6%, Moody's Baa2 (IG), ROE ~11.9%.📋 同类最佳的外部管理型 BDC——非应计 0.6%，穆迪 Baa2（投资级），ROE ~11.9%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| MZTI | 6.5 | $101.25 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| BKE | 6.5 | $43.17 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| O | 6 | $55.33 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, first score.8/27 分析——WATCH，首次评分 [6.0]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| OBDC | 6 | $10.78 | 📋 0.765x NAV ($14.41), ~11.2% base yield now 1.0x covered after a cut.📋 0.765x NAV（$14.41），~11.2% 基础股息率，减派后现为 1.0x 覆盖。 信用干净（非应计 1.0%，杠杆 1.13x 为 2 年最低）。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| INGR | 6 | $96.46 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| MPLX | 6 | $57.37 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH, sleeve-vacancy add that diversifies the rate-duration cluster's MECHANISM (contracted pipeline volumes…⚪ 9/10 分析——观察，填补仓位空缺，用来分散利率久期集群的『机制』（合同锁定的管道运量，相对于浮动利率的 BDC 贷款/净租赁资本化率）。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| ARCC | 5.5 | $19.20 | 🔒 HOLD — DO NOT ADD. Coverage broke below 1.0x. Largest listed BDC.🔒 持有 — 不要加仓。 覆盖率已跌破 1.0x。 最大的上市 BDC。 | 2026-08-03 | |
| KT | 5.5 | $19.23 | 👀 ANALYZED 8/11 — first file ever. Entry $16.50-18.00, ~3% below spot, and the Q2 print may deliver it within days.👀 8/11 已分析 — 史上第一份文件。 买入区间 $16.50-18.00，比现价低约 3%，而 Q2 财报可能在几天内就把它送到那里。 | 2026-08-11 | |
| NLCP | 5.5 | $14.95 | 🔒 HOLD — do not add. Q2'26 print modestly firms the dividend-safety leg; institutional bid thinned.🔒 持有 —— 不要加仓。 Q2'26 财报小幅巩固了股息安全性一端；机构买盘变薄。 | 2026-09-16 | |
| VICI | 5 | $23.30 | 🔄 A2026-09-22 — HOLD [5.5]→[5.0].🔄 A2026-09-22 —— 持有，[5.5]→[5.0]。 | 2026-08-03 |
Income — Yield Tomorrow未来收益 19 names
Pays little today but grows the dividend fast. Bought for the larger income later.现在分红不多，但分红涨得很快。买入是为了以后更多的收入。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BR | 7.5 | $163.16 | BR carries digital assets marked to market, so GAAP EPS now has crypto beta — and it already turned ($11M loss in Q4 alone).🔴 2026-09-28 重新分析——信心 8.5→7.5，有三条互相独立的理由。 | 2026-09-28 | |
| AXP | 7.5 | $306.55 | 🟢 ANALYZED 9/23 — first file ever, first conviction score. ACCUMULATE — starter now, stage the rest around the 10/23 print.9/23 分析——有史以来第一份档案，首次给出信念评分。 | 2026-09-23 | |
| TRI | 7.5 | $97.29 | 📋 Ran +20% out of the $82-98 zone. Catalyst: sold 51% of Global Print to KKR (~$500M).📋 上涨 +20% 脱离 $82-98 区间。 催化剂：以 ~$500M 将 Global Print 51% 出售给 KKR。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| EMR | 7.5 | $159.25 | 📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — conviction UP 7.0→7.5, WATCH.8/27 重新分析——信念上调 7.0→7.5，WATCH。 69 年股息之王，已转型为自动化/软件平台，兑现每一个 2028 里程碑。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| ADP | 7 | $263.55 | 🔒 Re-analyzed 8/27 — BUY→HOLD, conviction 8.5→7.0.8/27 重新分析——买入→持有，信念 8.5→7.0。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| ETN | 7 | $431.32 | 📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, conviction 7.5→7.0.8/27 重新分析——WATCH，信念 7.5→7.0。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| AZN | 7 | $166.80 | ⏳ ANALYZED 8/05. Large-cap pharma, 2.05% yield, 81.9% GM, ROIC 5.5%→14.0% in 3yrs, zero dilution 4yrs, net debt/EBITDA 1.18x.🟢 2026-08-05 分析 —— 首份文件。 观察；$150 时转为逐步买入。 填补医疗健康缺口的优质答案。 | 2026-08-05 | |
| DOX | 7 | $57.31 | 👋 ❌ EXITED $50-62 by 2.5% (8/27), on price alone — spot is still below the $65-82 FV floor. ANALYZED 8/12 — first file ever.⭐ 2026/08/12 分析——首份报告。 建议买入（ACCUMULATE），处于买入区间 $50-62。 | 2026-08-12 | |
| ACN | 6.5 | $175.82 | Re-analyzed 8/27 — HOLD, conviction 6.5 confirmed.8/27 重新分析——持有，信念 6.5 确认。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| TMUS | 6.5 | $166.93 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| XYL | 6.5 | $102.00 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| BMY | 6 | $63.17 | 📋 10.3x fwd, 4.03% yield, 71% GM, ROE 43.6%. Growth portfolio (Cobenfy, Reblozyl, Camzyos) +12% offsetting −6% legacy.📋 前瞻市盈率 10.3x,股息率 4.03%,毛利率 71%,ROE 43.6%。 增长组合(Cobenfy、Reblozyl、Camzyos)+12%,抵消了老产品 −6%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| ROL | 6 | $30.51 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| PNR | 6 | $53.14 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE (on weakness), first file.🟢 8/28 分析——逢弱增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| JNJ | 6 | $272.27 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH; LOADS the pharma-cliff cluster (5th member — Stelara = the same cliff shape as BMY/AZN). | 2026-09-10 | |
| LIN | 6 | $472.86 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH. | 2026-09-10 | |
| ITW | 6 | $273.57 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH; genuinely diversifies vs EMR/ETN (no AI-capex dependency). 80/20 model, 26-29% ROIC, 63yr Dividend King. | 2026-09-10 | |
| ZTS | 5.5 | $71.11 | 🔴 DOWNGRADED 8/06 from [6.5] — second FY26 guidance cut.🔴 8/06 下调 —— 就在次日早晨，由 [6.5] 降至 [5.5]。 等待的那道关卡给出了否定答案：第二次下调指引。 | 2026-08-05 | |
| HLNE | 5.5 | $84.70 | 👀 ANALYZED 8/12 — first file ever. WATCH, ~12% above the $80-92 zone. Hamilton Lane, the private-markets allocator.🆕 2026年8月12日分析——史上第一份文件。 观望（WATCH）——好生意、价格公允、会计口径存疑。 | 2026-08-12 |
AI & Infrastructure CapexAI 与基础设施资本开支 22 names
Sells the chips, hardware, and power behind the AI build-out.为AI基建提供芯片、硬件和电力。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 8.3 | $351.16 | ⭐ BUCKET RESOLVED 2026-09-22 — HOLD AVGO AT SIZE, not KLAC.🔄 A2026-09-10 —— 第三季度（9/2）超预期：增持 [8.0]→[8.3]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| KLAC | 7.5 | $189.70 | 🔄 A2026-09-22 — first real file. HOLD [7.5]. FV $165-205 (base ~$185) entry $155-178 (strong add <$160) trim 42x fwd (~$228).🔄 A2026-09-22 —— 第一份真正的文件。 持有 [7.5]。 | 2026-07-28 | |
| ORCL | 7 | $133.57 | 🔄 A2026-09-10 — Q1 FY27 beat-and-raise: HOLD [6.5]→[7.0].🔄 A2026-09-10 —— FY27 第一季度超预期并上调指引：持有 [6.5]→[7.0]。 | 2026-07-23 | |
| NVDA | 7 | $230.21 | 🔄 A2026-09-10 — Hugging Face ($12.93B) + MediaTek $3.5B: ACCUMULATE [6.5]→[7.0].🔄 A2026-09-10 —— 收购 Hugging Face（$12.93B）+ MediaTek 交易 $3.5B：增持 [6.5]→[7.0]。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| VST | 6.8 | $138.97 | ⭐ FIRST ANALYSIS 9/10 — ACCUMULATE, in-zone.首次分析 9/10——增持，处于区间内。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| APP | 6.5 | $307.87 | ✅ IN $280-320 | 🆕 ADDED TO THE WATCHLIST 9/28 — it was held and analyzed but had NO watchlist entry, so every scan that reads…🆕 2026-09-28… | 2026-09-28 | |
| AMAT | 6.5 | $484.05 | 👀 Analyzed 7/29 — the drawdown did NOT create the entry.❌ 入场区间 $300-350 现在比现价低 56%。 32.1x 前瞻市盈率。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| TSM | 6.5 | $453.58 | 📋 🔴 ANALYZED 8/04 — first file ever.📋 🔴 8/04 分析 —— 史上第一份报告。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| ANET | 6.5 | $205.87 | 📋 ANALYZED 8/27 — first file ever. HOLD, and the best business analysed today by a wide margin.📋 8/27 已分析 —— 有史以来第一份文件。 持有（HOLD），而且是今天分析的两家公司里明显更好的生意。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| GLW | 6.5 | $151.91 | 📋 Real AI-optical transformation at fair value.📋 合理估值下真实的 AI-光通信转型。 | 2026-07-28 | |
| BWXT | 6.5 | $134.97 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, first score.8/27 分析——WATCH，首次评分 [6.5]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| CRDO | 6.5 | $192.88 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/02, placed 9/10 — WATCH. | 2026-09-02 | |
| CEG | 6 | $260.70 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, first score.8/27 分析——WATCH，首次评分 [6.0]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| CALX | 6 | $33.19 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| QCOM | 5.5 | $188.74 | 📋 Refreshed 9/10 — HOLD, do not add; verdict unchanged.📋 9/10 已刷新 —— 持有，不要加仓；结论不变。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| SANM | 5.5 | $220.05 | ✂️ Analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, first score.8/27 分析——WATCH，首次评分 [5.5]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| DIOD | 5.5 | $95.62 | 📋 🔴 ANALYZED 8/06 — first file ever. WATCH, DO NOT BUY. FV $60-85 (central ~$72) — spot is 39% ABOVE the midpoint.📋 🔴 8/06 首次分析 — 首个文件。 观望，不要买入。 合理价值 $60-85（中枢约 $72）— 现价比中枢高 39%。 | 2026-08-06 | |
| AMD | 5 | $604.54 | 📋 ANALYZED 8/27 — first file ever. WATCH. Spot sits AT/ABOVE the top of fair value.📋 8/27 已分析 —— 有史以来第一份文件。 观望（WATCH）。 现价位于合理价值区间的顶部或以上。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| ALGM | 5 | $37.24 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/21 — WATCH, first file.⏳ 等待 10/28 的 FY27 第二财季财报 —— 9/21 分析，首份文件。 观察：现价比 $25-29 入场区间高 22%。 | 2026-09-21 | |
| DOCN | 4.5 | $136.32 | ✂️ ANALYZED 8/12 — first file ever on a position held without one. TRIM. The dead $70+ is replaced (see below).✂️ 8/12 已分析 — 一个长期持有却从未有过分析文件的仓位，这是第一份。 TRIM（减持）。 原来那条已经失效的 $70+ 被替换（见下）。 | 2026-08-12 | |
| MU | 4 | $1,055.53 | 🔴 ✂️ TRIM NOW / EXIT — analyzed 8/04, first file ever.🔴 [4.0] 8/04 分析 — 确认减持/清仓，而且是在充分肯定多头理由之后得出的结论，不是无视它。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| INTC | 4 | $115.23 | 🔴 ✂️ A2026-09-22 — TRIM, conviction [4.5]→[4.0]. FV $55-85 → $60-90 entry below $60 trim 44x fwd.🔴 ✂️ A2026-09-22 —— 减持，信心 [4.5]→[4.0]。 合理价值 $55-85 → $60-90 买入区间 $60 以下 减持 44x 前瞻。 | 2026-08-04 |
Re-Rating Plays价值重估机会 29 names
Sound companies the market has priced low. The thesis is the price catching up to the value.基本面扎实、但被市场低估的公司。投资逻辑就是价格慢慢追上价值。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 6.5 | $32.66 | 👋 ❌ EXITED $30-36 by 4.7% (8/27) — dropped off the shortlist this week on price alone; spot is still below the $39-48 FV floor.⭐ 在 $30-36 买入区间内 — 8/11 已分析，史上第一份文件。 ACCUMULATE（逐步买入）。 Genpact，业务流程外包与数据/AI 服务。 | 2026-08-11 | |
| GDDY | 6.5 | $94.59 | 👋 ❌ EXITED ≤$95 by 2.8% (8/27) — but FALLING TOWARD IT (−7.1% on the month), one of only two on-deck names moving the right way.⭐ 守住了买入区间，连续第二次扫描在区间内。 8.26x 前瞻市盈率，较高点低 39.4%，目标价 $104.80（+15.0%）。 8/04 已分析，首份文件。 | 2026-08-04 | |
| CTSH | 6.5 | $56.85 | 👀 ⚠️ Earnings 7/29. 8.1x fwd, 2.81% yield (~2x 5yr avg), 12.7% FCF yield, near-zero debt, $2B buyback.👀 ⚠️ 7/29 财报。 8.1x 前瞻，2.81% 股息率（~2x 5 年均值），12.7% 自由现金流收益率，近乎零负债，$2B 回购。 | 2026-07-09 | |
| GPN | 6.5 | $85.13 | 📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — INITIATE→WATCH, conviction 7.5→6.5.8/27 重新分析——启动→WATCH，信念 7.5→6.5。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| DECK | 6.5 | $78.67 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| ACM | 6.5 | $58.70 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| CRUS | 6.5 | $119.17 | 🟢 ANALYZED 8/30 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟢 8/30 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| UAL | 6.5 | $112.22 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/30 — ACCUMULATE, first file. A leveraged cyclical genuinely becoming a higher-quality one, not yet a compounder.🟡 8/30 分析——增持，首份报告。 一家真正在从杠杆型周期股变为更高质量周期股的公司，但尚未成为复利机器。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| EPAM | 6 | $108.55 | 📋 +19% in 14 days.📋 14 天内 +19%。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| CDW | 6 | $130.59 | 📋 Fairly valued, not cheap. 12.2x fwd, 1.83% yield. Q1'26 rev +9.2% but op income only +1.8% (component-cost pressure).📋 估值合理,不便宜。 前瞻市盈率 12.2x,股息率 1.83%。 Q1'26 收入 +9.2%,但营业利润仅 +1.8%(零部件成本压力)。 | 2026-07-14 | |
| PYPL | 6 | $54.19 | 📋 Re-analyzed 9/10 — HOLD, modest upgrade [5.5]→[6.0]. Do not chase; add on weakness toward $48.📋 9/10 重新分析 —— 持有，小幅上调 [5.5]→[6.0]。 不要追高；在回落至 $48 附近时加仓。 🔴 交易已告吹 —— 「特殊情况」的定性作废。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| CNM | 6 | $42.37 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟡 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| DKS | 6 | $134.49 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/30 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟡 8/30 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| CSGP | 6 | $27.08 | 🟢 ANALYZED 9/10 — ACCUMULATE, IN ZONE (bear-SOTP floor).🟢 9/10 分析——增持，处于入场区间内（空头分部估值给出的底部）。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| PODD | 6 | $132.70 | 🟢 ANALYZED 9/10 — ACCUMULATE, in entry band.🟢 9/10 分析——增持，处于入场区间内。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| MMS | 6 | $52.26 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/02, placed 9/10 — WATCH. | 2026-09-02 | |
| RRX | 5.5 | $156.04 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/21 — WATCH, first file. Regal Rexnord — industrial motion, mid-deleveraging after $8.5B of M&A.⏳ 等待 10/28 第三季度财报 —— 9/21 分析，首份文件。 观察：现价比 $120-135 入场区间高 11.6%。 | 2026-09-21 | |
| TWLO | 5.5 | $283.28 | 📋 Analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, first score.8/27 分析——WATCH，首次评分 [5.5]。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| HONA | 5.5 | $156.20 | 👀 ANALYZED 8/06 — first file ever, the day it fell −23.2%. ⚠️ Ticker trap: this is the name that "HON fell 20%" refers to.👀 2026-08-06 分析 —— 就在它下跌 −23.2% 的当天。 观望，暂时不要抄底。 | 2026-08-06 | |
| DLX | 5.5 | $24.07 | 🟠 ANALYZED 8/30 — WATCH.🟠 8/30 分析——观察。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| LUV | 5.5 | $42.64 | 🟠 ANALYZED 8/30 — WATCH. Not a survival story — leverage is fine (net debt/EBITDAR ~0.4x) — a moat-transition story.🟠 8/30 分析——观察。 不是生存故事——杠杆很健康（净负债/EBITDAR 约 0.4x）——而是护城河转型的故事。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| DBX | 5 | $31.57 | 👀 ANALYZED 8/11. WATCH — a public LBO that works, already priced as though it does.👀 8/11 已分析。 观察（WATCH）— 一场行得通的公开市场 LBO，而市场已经按「它行得通」定好了价。 | 2026-08-11 | |
| FIS | 5 | $34.42 | 👀 🔴 ANALYZED 8/06 — first file ever. WATCH — no position.👀 🔴 8/06 分析完成 —— 史上第一份报告。 观察 —— 无仓位。 合理价值 $42-54（中值约 $48）—— 现价位于合理价值的下沿，而不是低于它。 | 2026-08-06 | |
| PLAB | 5 | $30.34 | ✂️ ENTERING THE $33-36 TRIM/EXIT BAND — and the ~8/26 gate is 15 days out.✂️ 正在进入 $33-36 减持/退出区间——而约 8/26 的检验点只剩 15 天。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| NXPI | 5 | $236.00 | 👀 🔴 Analyzed 7/29.🔴 合理价值 $200-235；现价处于上沿。 等 Q1'27 营收（>$3,900M = 真正的拐点；$3,600-3,700M = 同一部老电影）。 低于 $200 加仓。 | 2026-07-29 | |
| TDC | 5 | $28.36 | 10.2x fwd, ~8.8x P/FCF, $285M FCF, 8.5% share reduction. Speculative value on a depreciating moat. Buy $20-22.前瞻市盈率 10.2x,约 8.8x P/FCF,$285M 自由现金流,股份减少 8.5%。 押注于一条正在贬值的护城河的投机型价值。 $20-22 买入。 | 2026-03-21 | |
| INGN | 4.5 | $5.38 | 👀 Above entry $4.25-5.00 — ANALYZED 8/19, first file ever. WATCH, do not buy yet.🆕 2026年8月19日分析——史上第一份文件。 观望（WATCH），现在不要买入。 | 2026-08-19 | |
| FISV | 4.5 | $45.94 | 👀 🔴 Downgraded 9/16 — the trough thesis broke on the 8/06 Q2 print.🔴 9/16 下调 —— 8/06 Q2 财报打破了触底论。 | 2026-09-16 | |
| LULU | 3.5 | $101.40 | 🔄 A2026-09-10 — 2nd FY guide cut fired the downgrade trigger: WATCH [5.0]→[3.5].🔄 A2026-09-10 —— 第二次下调全年指引，触发降级条件：观察 [5.0]→[3.5]。 | 2026-08-11 |
Structural-Risk Sleeve结构性风险 6 names
Higher reward with one known long-term risk — regulation, geography, or a single customer.回报更高，但有一个明确的长期风险——政策、地域，或过度依赖单一客户。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCEHY | 7.5 | $56.17 | 👀 Approaching the low-$50s add. The quality anchor of the sleeve.$50 出头加仓。 12.2x 前瞻市盈率，目标价 $97.91（+55.7%）。 ⚠️ 请用 0700.HK 执行，不要用流动性稀薄的 ADR。 | 2026-07-15 | |
| BABA | 7 | $109.59 | 📋 Cheaper, higher-variance value play.📋 更便宜、波动更大的价值股。 | 2026-07-15 | |
| NU | 7 | $12.39 | 🟢 RE-ANALYZED 9/28 — conviction 6.5→7.0 DESPITE THREE RETRACTIONS.🟢 2026-09-28 重新分析——信心 6.5→7.0，尽管有三条撤回。 | 2026-09-28 | |
| TME | 6 | $8.48 | 🟡 ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file.🟡 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| MNSO | 5 | $8.94 | 🟠 ANALYZED 8/28 — WATCH, not a buy.🟠 8/28 分析——观察，不是买入。 | 2026-08-28 | |
| PDD | 4.5 | $78.89 | 🔄 RE-ANALYZED 8/28 (/analyze-from-before, incorporates the 8/24 Q2 print) — WATCH held, conviction [5.0]→[4.5].🔄 8/28 重新分析（/analyze-from-before，纳入 8/24 的 Q2 财报）——观察维持，信念 [5.0]→[4.5]。 | 2026-08-28 |
Speculative & Micro投机与微型股 13 names
Small, early, or unproven. Can multiply, or go to zero. Small positions only.规模小、处于早期或尚未验证。可能翻很多倍，也可能归零。只小仓位持有。
| Ticker代码 | Conv信心 | Price价格 | Price and entry range价格与买入区间 | Thesis逻辑 | Analyzed分析时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEU | 7.7 | $141.95 | ⭐ Re-checked 9/16 — ACCUMULATE, now inside the strong-buy zone (−16% in 6d, $3 above 52wk-low).9/16 复查——增持，现已进入强力买入区间（6 天内 -16%，距 52 周低点仅 $3）。 | 2026-09-16 | |
| UEC | 6.5 | $9.22 | 👀 NEARLY IN ZONE — pulled back to ~5% above the top edge (was +29% at the $13.56 spike). Zone $8.50-10.50.接近区间——回落至比上沿高约 5%（在 $13.56 的高点时曾高出 29%）。 区间 $8.50-10.50。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| ALT | 6 | $3.04 | 🎲 ANALYZED 8/20 — WATCH. Archetype HYBRID — turnaround shell, startup mechanics. | 2026-08-20 | |
| ZVRA | 6 | $11.13 | 🟢 ANALYZED 9/10 — ACCUMULATE (asymmetric bet); SWAPS VRRM out of this sleeve.🟢 9/10 分析——增持（非对称赌注）；在本仓位中替换掉 VRRM。 | 2026-09-10 | |
| PCG | 5.5 | $12.04 | ⚠️ ANALYZED 8/31 — WATCH, first file, caught on the SB 492 collapse (−15-20% in two sessions).⚠️ 8/31 分析——观察（WATCH），首份报告，恰逢 SB 492 法案失败（两个交易日下跌 −15-20%）。 | 2026-08-31 | |
| INVA | 5.5 | $20.99 | ⚪ ANALYZED 9/10 — WATCH, on deck (not in zone). | 2026-09-10 | |
| QBTS | 5 | $17.20 | Only quantum name with 100+ production enterprise customers, 179% FY2025 rev growth, 83% GM, $884M cash, 12yr runway.唯一拥有 100+ 生产环境企业客户的量子计算公司,FY2025 收入增长 179%,毛利率 83%,$884M 现金,12 年运营资金跑道。 | 2026-04-28 | |
| CBRS | 4.5 | $198.87 | 📋 ANALYZED 8/27 — WATCH, and far out of zone. Wafer-scale AI inference; IPO 5/14/26 at $185, −52.6% off the $386 day-one high.📋 8/27 已分析 —— 观察，且远低于买入区间。 晶圆级 AI 推理；2026-05-14 以 $185 上市，较 $386 的上市首日高点下跌 52.6%。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| ASTS | 4.5 | $61.89 | 🎲 ANALYZED 8/30 (/analyze-smallcap) — WATCH, Startup. Speculative-sleeve only, sized small.🎲 8/30 分析（/analyze-smallcap）——观察，初创型。 仅限投机仓位，小额持有。 直连手机的卫星宽带，基本处于商业化前阶段。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| NVTS | 4 | $11.84 | GaN/SiC power semis mid-pivot toward AI datacenter power (NVIDIA MGX/800V HVDC).GaN/SiC 功率半导体,正转向 AI 数据中心供电(NVIDIA MGX/800V HVDC)。 | 2026-07-10 | |
| RKLB | 4 | $73.22 | 🎲 ANALYZED 8/30 (/analyze-smallcap) — WATCH, Startup. Speculative-sleeve only, sized small — never core.🎲 8/30 分析（/analyze-smallcap）——观察，初创型。 仅限投机仓位，小额持有——永不作为核心。 | 2026-08-30 | |
| SMR | 2 | $8.08 | Thesis broken on the numbers, accepted: revenue collapsing to ~$75K/quarter, TTM FCF −$778.8M (the earlier "−$205M" was one stale…8/27 重新分析——[2.0] 维持，已决仓位。 占自有约 0.34%。 | 2026-08-27 | |
| VRRM | — | $3.04 | ⚰️ SWAPPED OUT 9/10 — replaced in this sleeve by ZVRA [6.0]; move to Graveyard at next cleanup.🔴 陷入困境 — 3 道门槛,一道未达。 Avis Budget 于 2026 年 5 月终止合同 → −75%+,CEO 离职,欺诈诉讼已提起。 | 2026-06-12 |
Correlation groups关联分组 companies that fail for the same reason会因同一原因一起出问题的公司
| Cluster分组 | Names公司 | Shared failure mode共同风险点 | Rule规则 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 AI-services repricing (widened 8/11… | ACN CTSH EPAM ~~IBM~~ (partial) G INFY | One bet: does AI destroy labor-arbitrage IT services? They rise and fall together — proven twice now (−40% together, then +17-22% together). | Manage as one position. Do not add a second name to raise exposure. |
| 🔴 AI-displacement value cluster (new 8/11) | G INFY DBX AKAM (+ held FSLY DOCU EPAM ) | Four names analysed the same day, all screening cheap, all cheap for the SAME reason: software and services being repriced for AI displacement. | Size the THEME once, not the tickers. Take one name — G — and treat INFY, DBX and AKAM as passed, not pending. |
| 🔴 AI capex — SELLERS into the buildout | AVGO KLAC NVDA AMAT ANET AMD INTC QCOM GLW SANM CEG BWXT | Datacenter buildout pace. SOX −28.6% (peak 6/22 → 7/29), $3.3T of sector cap gone in 5 weeks — every name fell regardless of its own results. | Size the bucket, not the name. (ORCL's own analysis says this.) |
| 🔴 AI capex — BUYERS of the capacity (split out 8/12) | DOCN AKAM ORCL (FSLY adjacent) | Separated from the sellers because they sit on the opposite side of the same trade. DOCN, AKAM and ORCL buy the capacity AVGO/KLAC/AMAT sell. | Do not read a low reported capex number as low capital intensity — check finance leases and the adjusted-FCF definition first. |
| 🟠 Cybersecurity | PANW CRWD QLYS RBRK ZS CHKP FTNT | Platform bundling by Microsoft/PANW/CRWD, plus sector-wide multiple de-ratings that hit good and bad alike (QLYS −20% in 9 days on no company news). | 4 held = deep. New entries are swaps, not adds. |
| 🟠 BDC / credit | MAIN ARCC TSLX OBDC | Rate cuts compress NII; spread widening erodes NAV. | MAIN is the quality anchor — its intact coverage is the reason. |
| 🔴 Rate-duration factor (new 8/3 NLCP removed 8/4) | VICI ARCC O MAIN TSLX OBDC | One factor, not six names. Every one re-prices off the 10yr (4.70%, +71bp off the Feb trough). | Size the factor once, not each name. |
| 🟠 Cannabis / regulatory-arbitrage (new 8/4) | NLCP | Moved out of rate-duration — it never loaded on the factor. | Sized fine; the categorisation was the error. |
| 🟠 Pharma patent-cliff (new 8/05) | AZN BMY ZTS (NVO ) | Not "healthcare" — one failure mode: an expiring monopoly against a pipeline that has to replace it in time. | Own ONE of AZN/BMY, not both — they are the same trade with opposite risk profiles. |
| 🔴 Bank-processor de-rating (new 8/06) | FISV FIS GPN (PYPL adjacent) | These are not three ideas — they are one idea held three ways: levered US bank/payment-processing incumbent de-rated on a guidance cut intact switching-cost moat… | What separates them: FIS pays a 4.11% dividend covered at 41% of FCF but carries 3.6x leverage with buybacks paused to 2027 and a… |
| 🟡 Govt / defense services | LDOS BAH ACN | Federal budget + DOGE-style program risk. | LDOS is the upgrade over BAH — don't hold both. |
| 🟡 Financial data | SPGI TRI FDS EFX IT | The same AI-disruption-to-data narrative, resolving differently per name (FDS ASV accelerating vs. IT's CV collapsing). | FDS anchors. IT is gated. |
| 🟡 Nuclear / uranium | LEU VST UEC CEG BWXT (CCJ 🪦) | Uranium spot + DOE/regulatory policy. LEU and CCJ share the same DOE/Russian-sanctions axis — CCJ would concentrate, not diversify. | Combined speculative sizing; VST sized separately as a non-spec IG name. |
| 🟠 Post-collapse, pre-inflection (new 8/20) | INGN PATH OUST SMR (FSLY DOCN TWLO adjacent) | Not a sector — a thesis shape. Every one is a former high-flier bought after a collapse, each needing a revenue inflection that has not arrived. | The sleeve is full before a new name is judged on merit. New entries here are swaps, not adds — fund from an existing member. |
| 🟡 China / VIE (+TME MNSO 8/28) | TCEHY BABA TME MNSO PDD | Regulatory + delisting. Structural, not cyclical. | Combined starter sizing. TCEHY is the core. |
| 🟢 Water infrastructure (new 8/28) | XYL PNR CNM | Three 8/28 adds, one end-market cycle: municipal + residential water/wastewater capex. | Own one at size, not three at a sliver. |
| 🟠 Consumer-staples volume / GLP-1 (new 8/28) | STZ MZTI INGR (· ZTS adjacent) | One demand question, three ways: are packaged food/beverage volumes softening cyclically, or is GLP-1 + moderation a secular step-down? | They resolve on the same macro read — size the theme once. |
Removed companies已移除的公司 kept on file so a screen does not add them again保留记录，以免筛选时又把它们加回来
| Ticker代码 | Price价格 | Out移除时间 | Status状态 | Why it left移除原因 | Re-entry trigger重新加入的条件 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AHRT | $7.11 | 07-28 | ⚰️ Dead | Dead capital, revenue declining. ✅ Confirmed sold 7/28 — the watchlist had been carrying a stale tag across 3 scans. | None. Replace with O. |
| EVGO | $1.63 | 07-28 | ⚰️ Dead | [4.5] −68.5% off high, fwd P/E −4.9. Thesis was "FCF positive 2028-2031" — the equity is pricing that the dilution + DOE-loan math broke first. Altman Z 0.44. | None. Tesla NACS is a structural moat threat. |
| SNDK | $1,096 | 07-28 | 🌱 Revisit | [3.5] Peak-cycle commodity. GM 22.5%→78.3% in 4 quarters on pure NAND price. Honest FV range $250–$2,200 — a 9x spread. Fails §0: cannot say whether it's priced in. | 2-3x book (~$190-280) after a confirmed cycle turn. |
| AMKR | $45.69 | 07-28 | 🌱 Revisit | [4.0] Value trap. Record quarter at only 16.8% GM; 2026 capex ~3x → FCF ≈ −$1.0 to −$1.6B. TSMC is both partner and its most dangerous competitor. Graham IV $27.10 — stock 70% above it. | High-$20s/low-$30s AND FCF positive. |
| SOLS | n/a | 08-08 | 🌱 Revisit | [—] Not yet analyzed — new spinoff. Solstice Advanced Materials, the specialty-chemicals arm (refrigerants, electronic materials, Spectra fiber) that Honeywell spun off Oct 2025. | Run /analyze; add only if quality and price both check out. |
| CCJ | $97.42 | 09-10 | 🌱 Revisit | [4.0] Reaffirmed 9/10 re-sweep — drifted further from the entry. FV $45-70, price now ~70% above the $57.5 centre (up from $86.38 on 7/31; Jefferies initiated Buy $138 9/3). | Sub-$55 AND the Westinghouse S-1 shows contracted backlog (not "91 opportunities"). Full size sub-$42. |
| AME | $241.43 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] −1.3% off its 52wk high, entry ($170-185) stale, 27.4x fwd. Quality industrial compounder — nothing wrong with it, nothing to do. | Drawdown >25% (~$180). |
| ALL | $272.42 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] −0.1% off its 52wk high. 10.3x fwd, entry ($175-190) stale. P&C insurance, massive FCF. | Drawdown >25% (~$205), or if a P&C sleeve is wanted. |
| LFUS | $392.05 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Circuit protection leader (~30% share), entry ($155-175) stale 2.2x, 22.7x fwd. | Drawdown >30% (~$275). |
| HUBB | $483.66 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Utility infra / grid modernization, entry ($300-320) stale, 21.6x fwd, −14.5% off high. | Back to $340-380. |
| FFIV | $403.46 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] App delivery / multi-cloud security. Zero debt, 30%+ FCF CAGR. Entry ($200-215) stale — stock ~doubled. −7.3% off high. | Drawdown >30% (~$285). |
| NTAP | $174.53 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] ONTAP + data-gravity moat. Entry ($90-100) stale, 17.7x fwd, −9.5% off high. | Back to $120-140. |
| TEL | $214.29 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] World's largest connector maker, 14yr growth streak, FCF doubled to $3.2B. Entry ($130-145) stale, 16.5x fwd. | Back to $160-180. |
| ITRI | $107.02 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Smart grid/metering turnaround. +28.2% in 14 days — biggest single move on the list; entry ($72-82) blown out. 16.1x fwd. | Back to $80-90. |
| FTNT | $153.22 | 07-29 | 💤 Dormant | [—] ⚠️ Retired after 3 passes with the same verdict. Reported 7/29 (+2.2%) and consensus target $135.57 is still 12% BELOW spot; 44.7x fwd, only −10.1% off high. | Target moves above spot, or a cyber slot opens via a trim. |
| UNH | $428.79 | 07-28 | 💤 Dormant | [—] Dominant franchise, 19.1x fwd, 2.22% yield. Entry ($220-250) stale — fully recovered, −7.1% off high. DOJ probe risk. | Drawdown >25% (~$320). |
| MTCH 🆕 | **$40.30** | 08-20 | 🌱 Revisit | [4.0] ANALYZED 8/20 — first file ever. AVOID; never reached the live list. | Sub-$30 AND Tinder registrations still positive — watch the flows, not the payer line, which lags 2-3 quarters. |
| CHKP | $135.16 | 09-01 | 🌱 Revisit | [4.0] → [5.0]. Correcting the 08-04 read: Q2 did NOT confirm churn. | Product/license revenue positive 2 consecutive quarters (mgmt guides Q4 positive) — then re-rate. |