NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.
NLCP 5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
NewLake is a small REIT that owns cannabis-industry buildings — dispensaries and growing facilities — and rents them on long leases to state-licensed operators. It is a landlord, not a cannabis grower.NewLake 是一家小型REIT，拥有大麻行业的物业——零售店和种植设施——并以长期租约出租给持有各州牌照的经营者。它是房东，而不是大麻种植商。
Earns from营收来源 rent under long triple-net leases, at high yields because mainstream banks and landlords will not serve this industry.长期三净租约下收取的租金，收益率很高，因为主流银行和房东都不愿意服务这个行业。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. is an internally-managed real estate investment trust that provides real estate capital to state-licensed cannabis operators through sale-leaseback transactions and third-party purchases and funding for build-to-suit projects. NewLake owns a portfolio of 34 properties, including 15 cultivation facilities and 19 dispensaries, primarily leased to single tenants under triple-net lease agreements. NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. was formed and incorporated on April 9, 2019 in Maryland, USA.
Portfolio breakdown投资组合构成 share of annual rent按年租金的占比
Curaleaf is a multi-state cannabis operator and NewLake's anchor tenant at about 26% of rent — the concentration that most shapes NewLake's risk. The tenant itself is performing: in 2025 it generated roughly $1.3B of revenue, a ~50% gross margin, and $90M of free cash flow. The overarching risk is structural — cannabis is still illegal under US federal law — so a stumble by this one large operator is what would hit NewLake hardest.Curaleaf 是一家跨州大麻运营商，也是 NewLake 的核心租户，约占租金的 26%——这是最主要影响 NewLake 风险的集中度。租户本身经营良好：2025 年营收约 13 亿美元，毛利率约 50%，自由现金流 9000 万美元。总体风险是结构性的——大麻在美国联邦法律下仍属非法——因此这家大型运营商一旦出问题，对 NewLake 的打击最大。
Cresco is one of the bigger US cannabis operators, with improving profitability (gross margin around 52% in 2025) and debt maturities pushed out to 2030 — both reassuring for a landlord that needs it to keep paying rent.Cresco 是美国较大的大麻运营商之一，盈利能力在改善（2025 年毛利率约 52%），债务到期已展期至 2030 年——对依赖它持续付租的房东来说，这两点都令人安心。
Trulieve is the market leader in Florida and produced about $230M of free cash flow in 2025 — a well-capitalized tenant. Together, Curaleaf, Cresco and Trulieve make up roughly half of NewLake's rent.Trulieve 是佛罗里达的市场龙头，2025 年产生约 2.3 亿美元自由现金流——一家资本充足的租户。Curaleaf、Cresco 和 Trulieve 合计约占 NewLake 租金的一半。
The rest of the rent is spread across about eight smaller cannabis operators in a dozen states. That breadth cushions the top-three concentration above, though every tenant shares the same federal-illegality backdrop.其余租金分散在约八家规模较小的大麻运营商、分布于十几个州。这种广度缓冲了上方前三大租户的集中度，尽管每家租户都面临同样的联邦非法背景。
Company facts公司资料
- Employees员工人数
- 7
- Industry行业
- REIT - Specialty
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
🔒 HOLD — do not add. The old "payout 134%" was a vendor GAAP-EPS artifact and is struck (analysis_notes.md §4 forbids a GAAP payout on a REIT). True AFFO payout is 90% — but that is the ceiling of management's own 80–90% band, reached by walking 79→82→85→90 in four quarters. Right call, wrong reason, for months. Cannabis net-lease REIT, OTCQX, 7 employees, effectively unlevered (1.8% debt/assets, no maturity to May 2027, $107M liquidity), dividend frozen 9 quarters at $0.43, never cut, 11.9yr WALT with 0.8% expiring through 2029. But the thesis is deteriorating on five measures: revenue down 5 straight quarters (−6.8% YoY), AFFO/sh −12.7% off peak, ~10% of ABR dark ($71.1M in 3 vacant grows, 12+ months, no signed re-lease), deployment collapsed to $1.49M FY25 / $0 in Q1'26 against $107M idle, and top-5 tenants = 70% of ABR with Cannabist (8.1%) in restructuring and Calypso (7.8%) at zero security deposit. Four screens say cheap and all four are artifacts: P/B 0.84 marks to ~0.95x once the unimpaired vacancies are written down (GAAP passes them only on an undiscounted test); Graham $22.94 overstates ~48%; DYT fires only on a 2021-regime band — the yield is below its 1yr and 2yr means and fell 140bp over 12 months on a +12.7% price move. Market's implied required return ~10.9% vs a 13–15% risk build. Moat dies on the good news: existing leases re-rate on rescheduling, but new sale-leasebacks at 8–9% lose to mortgages — hold it as a ~12yr annuity + legalization call option, never as a compounder. Mgmt runs a live $50M ATM to issue while $8.2M of buyback sits unused at a discount to book. FV $14.00-18.00 (weighted $15.80 vs $15.75 spot — no margin of safety). Add $12.50-13.50. Trim $21.00 — = ≈10.5x AFFO/sh $2.00 and ≈1.25x marked NAV $16.60; dollar-form because the site derives multiple-trims off GAAP EPS, and NLCP's GAAP EPS $1.25 vs AFFO/sh $1.92 means a bare "10x" would render $12.50 — below spot and below the entry zone, inverting the call. Re-set the 10.5x AFFO judgment at each /analyze. **
Watch
- Q2 prints Aug 6, 11:00 ET — watch AFFO/sh vs $1.75, the payout-break line.**
🔒 持有 —— 不要加仓。原来的「派息率 134%」是数据商按 GAAP EPS 计算的假象，已删除（analysis_notes.md §4 明确禁止对 REIT 使用 GAAP 派息率）。真实的 AFFO 派息率是 90% —— 但那正是管理层自己 80–90% 目标区间的上限，并且是在四个季度内一路走高（79→82→85→90）才到达的。结论对，理由错，而且错了好几个月。大麻净租赁 REIT，OTCQX 挂牌，仅 7 名员工，几乎没有杠杆（负债/资产 1.8%，2027 年 5 月前无到期债务，流动性 $107M），股息已连续 9 个季度冻结在 $0.43，历史上从未下调，加权平均租期 11.9 年，到 2029 年只有 0.8% 的租约到期。但投资逻辑在五个维度上都在恶化：收入连续 5 个季度下滑（同比 −6.8%），每股 AFFO 较峰值 −12.7%，约 10% 的 ABR 处于空置（3 处空置种植设施占用 $71.1M，空置已超过 12 个月，没有签下任何新租约），资本投放崩塌至 FY25 的 $1.49M、Q1'26 的 $0，而手上闲置着 $107M，前五大租户占 ABR 的 70%，其中 Cannabist（8.1%）正在重组，Calypso（7.8%）的保证金已归零。四个筛选指标都说便宜，但四个都是假象：P/B 0.84 —— 一旦把未计提减值的空置资产如实减记，就回到 约 0.95x（GAAP 之所以放行，只是因为它用的是未折现的现金流测试）；Graham 估值 $22.94 高估约 48%；DYT 只有用 2021 年利率环境下的历史区间才会触发 —— 当前股息率低于其 1 年和 2 年均值，且在过去 12 个月里因股价上涨 +12.7% 而下降了 140bp。市场隐含的要求回报率约 10.9%，而自下而上测算是 13–15%。护城河会在好消息中消亡：放宽管制会让现有租约重估，但新的售后回租只能做到 8–9%，打不过按揭贷款 —— 因此应把它当作 一份约 12 年的年金 + 一份合法化看涨期权来持有，绝不能当作复利成长股。管理层一边挂着 $50M 的增发额度（ATM），一边让 $8.2M 的回购授权闲置，而股价还低于账面价值。合理估值 $14.00-18.00（加权 $15.80，对应现价 $15.75 —— 没有安全边际）。加仓区间 $12.50-13.50。$21.00 减仓 —— = 约 10.5x 每股 AFFO $2.00，约 1.25x 调整后 NAV $16.60；之所以写成美元金额，是因为网站的倍数型减仓价是按 GAAP EPS 推算的，而 NLCP 的 GAAP EPS 为 $1.25、每股 AFFO 为 $1.92 —— 直接写「10x」会渲染成 $12.50，低于现价也低于加仓区间，把结论完全颠倒。每次 /analyze 时重新校准这个 10.5x AFFO 的判断。 ⚠️ Q2 财报 8 月 6 日 11:00 ET 公布 —— 关注每股 AFFO 是否跌破 $1.75 这条派息崩溃线。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 7%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- -7%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 11.00%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
It collects high rents as a landlord in a niche others avoid, without running the cannabis business itself. But the risk is concrete: cannabis is illegal under US federal law, and one tenant, Curaleaf, is about 26% of the rent — so a single large operator's failure would hit hard.它作为房东，在别人回避的小众领域收取高额租金，而自己并不经营大麻业务。但风险很实在：大麻在美国联邦法律下仍属违法，而且一个租户 Curaleaf 就贡献了约26%的租金——所以只要一个大租户出问题，就会造成重创。
Related companies相关公司 🟠 Cannabis / regulatory-arbitrage (new 8/4)
Moved out of rate-duration — it never loaded on the factor. NLCP trades at a 15.87% implied cap rate, an ~1,120bp spread over the 10yr; a 71bp move is noise against a spread that wide.
~1.1% of Beta, ~0.9% of Self. Sized fine; the categorisation was the error.