AI & Infrastructure CapexAI 与基础设施资本开支
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM 5.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
Qualcomm designs the wireless chips — modems and processors — that run smartphones, cars, and connected devices. Separately, it owns a large set of mobile patents that nearly every phone maker must pay to use.Qualcomm 设计运行智能手机、汽车和联网设备的无线芯片——包括基带和处理器。此外，它还拥有一大批移动通信专利，几乎每一家手机厂商都得付费才能使用。
Earns from营收来源 chip sales, and patent royalties that arrive regardless of whose chips a phone uses.芯片销售，以及无论手机用的是谁的芯片都照收的专利授权费。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT segment develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software with connectivity and computing technologies for use in mobile devices; automotive systems for connectivity, digital cockpit, and ADAS/AD; and IoT, including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices, and edge networking products. The QTL segment grants licenses or provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which include various patent rights useful in the manufacture and sale of wireless products comprising products implementing LTE, and/or OFDMA-based 5G products and derivatives; to use cellular standard-essential patents, including 3G, 4G and 5G for cellular devices. The QSI segment invests in early-stage companies in various industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer, enterprise, cloud, IoT, and extended reality, and investments, including non-marketable equity securities and, to a lesser extent, marketable equity securities, and convertible debt instruments. It also provides development, and other services and sells related products to the United States government agencies and their contractors. In addition, the company is also involved in Qualcomm government technologies and data center businesses. Further, it provides security and intelligence services for unmanaged networks through software-based network security solutions. QUALCOMM Incorporated was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
What the company sells公司卖什么
Snapdragon processors, modems, and connectivity chips. FY2025 revenue was $38.4 billion. Of this, handsets are about 72%, the Internet of Things about 17%, and automotive about 10%.Snapdragon 处理器、调制解调器和连接芯片。FY2025 收入为 $38.4 billion。其中手机约占 72%，物联网约占 17%，汽车约占 10%。
- Handset chips手机芯片
- Snapdragon processors and modems sold to phone makers.卖给手机厂商的 Snapdragon 处理器和调制解调器。
- Automotive chips汽车芯片
- In-car screens, connectivity, and driver assistance.车载屏幕、连接功能和驾驶辅助。
Plus:此外： QTL — licensingQTL — 专利授权 (13%) — Royalties on Qualcomm's mobile patents. FY2025 revenue was $5.6 billion at about a 72% margin — very profitable and capital-lightQualcomm 移动专利的授权费。FY2025 收入为 $5.6 billion，利润率约 72%——非常赚钱且几乎不需要资本投入.
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1985
- Headquarters总部
- San Diego, California
- Employees员工人数
- 52,000
- Industry行业
- Semiconductors
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
📋 Analyzed 8/04 — HOLD, do not add.
What's working
- The floor is firmer than the drawdown implies — QTL renewals carry binding-arbitration clauses (a licensee cannot walk and stop paying, so the Apple 3/2027 expiry is a rate risk, not a binary), and Samsung is signed through 2030 with 6G explicitly pre-covered
- Auto +61%, 23 straight double-digit quarters, ~$7B exit run-rate, $45B design-win pipeline → $65B, BMW lead-compute across ADAS and cockpit, Stellantis into the 2030s — the FY29 $10B target is only ~13% CAGR on booked wins
- Two hyperscaler ASIC engagements with POs in hand and wafers started (Dec-qtr revenue) + a multi-generation Meta deal for the Dragonfly C1000 CPU, won against Arm
- 0.5x net leverage, 26.6% D/A; −2.7%/yr shares + 2.26% yield covered at 37% of FCF; >$1.50 of EPS suppressed by the memory-cost shock; FY27 tax rate 13-14% after the FY25 charge
Red flags
- The "14.8x fwd" was the wrong year: Yahoo's forwardEps of $10.30 is FY2026, three-quarters already reported. The FQ4 guide ($2.05-2.25 non-GAAP) annualizes to $8.60 → 18.9x, and at 16.4x P/FCF / 17.4x EV/EBIT the stock sits above its entire FY2025 range after a −37% drawdown
- Operating margin 26.6% → 16.3% in four quarters — opex +21.8% into revenue −4.0%, op income −41% YoY
- Management guided its own gross-margin floor down ~5pts (QCT baseline 48-50%, plus a 1.5-2.0pt datacenter drag). A moat does not reset its own floor
- Apple ~$7.5B FY26 → <$2B FY27, step-down accelerated ("share materially lower than our prior estimate of 20%") — and the licence expires March 2027, the date that actually matters: QTL is 13% of revenue but ~32% of operating profit
- Inventory +32% and receivables +37% on −4% revenue → FQ3 FCF of $495M, below both SBC ($830M) and the dividend ($973M); buyback halved $2.79B→$1.36B
- Every covering analyst cut targets on 7/30 (WFC $265→$170, RBC $250→$160); median $170. Zero insider buys at any price incl. $126 — CEO sold $28.5M over ten months
Watch
- But QTL has stopped growing ($5,572M→$5,582M→~$5.2B) and the $400 royalty cap means the Sept price increases do nothing for it — a floor, not an engine
- ~68% of QCT handset revenue rides on Chinese OEMs; ~$8.7B of M&A in 8 months (Alphawave Ventana Modular) funded alongside a $9.25B buyback and doubled capex; Arm's Third Circuit appeal still pending
- $128 → $259 → $148 → $163 in five months — the "−40% off high" was measured against a two-month narrative spike, and 8/04 alone was +7.3% on sector beta. FV $120-160. Add $120-138, strong <$115. Trim 18x fwd. ⭐ The one dated, falsifiable test: management says FY27 non-handset growth of >60% replaces all of FY26's ~$7.5B Apple revenue within the year. The December quarter is the first read — datacenter revenue must appear against wafers already started. If it does, this is a [7] at a lower price; if it doesn't, the $22B→$40B FY29 raise that drove the stock to $259 comes off the table
📋 8/04 已完成分析 —— 持有，不要加仓。[5.5] 🚩 「14.8x 前瞻市盈率」用错了年份： 雅虎的前瞻每股收益 $10.30 其实就是 FY2026，而这一年已经有四分之三公布完毕。按 FQ4 的指引（non-GAAP $2.05-2.25）年化只有 $8.60 → 18.9x；而且按 16.4x 市值/自由现金流、17.4x 企业价值/息税前利润，股价高于它自己整个 FY2025 的估值区间 —— 这是在回撤 −37% 之后。🚩 营业利润率四个季度内从 26.6% 掉到 16.3% —— 营业费用 +21.8%，而营收 −4.0%，营业利润同比 −41%。🚩 管理层把自己的毛利率下限下调了约 5 个百分点（QCT 基准 48-50%，数据中心业务再拖累 1.5-2.0 个百分点）。一条真正完好的护城河不会下调自己的地板。🚩 苹果：FY26 约 $7.5B → FY27 低于 $2B，下滑还在加速（「份额将明显低于我们原先估计的 20%」）—— 而真正关键的日期是授权协议 2027 年 3 月到期：QTL 只占营收 13%，却贡献约 32% 的营业利润。🚩 库存 +32%、应收账款 +37%，而营收是 −4% → FQ3 自由现金流只有 $495M，低于股权激励费用（$830M），也低于股息（$973M）；回购从 $2.79B 砍半到 $1.36B。🚩 7/30 当天所有覆盖的分析师全部下调目标价（富国 $265→$170，加拿大皇家 $250→$160），中位数 $170。任何价位都没有内部人买入 —— 包括 $126 时 —— 而 CEO 十个月里卖了 $28.5M。✅ 地板比这波回撤显示的更结实 —— QTL 的续约合同带有强制仲裁条款（被授权方不能一走了之就停止付款，所以苹果 2027 年 3 月的到期是费率风险，不是有无风险），而且三星已经签到 2030 年，合同里明确把 6G 预先包含在内。✅ 汽车业务 +61%，连续 23 个季度两位数增长，退出 FY26 的年化收入约 $7B，设计中标管线 $45B → 目标 $65B，拿下宝马下一代 ADAS 和座舱的主计算芯片，与 Stellantis 的合作延伸到 2030 年代 —— FY29 的 $10B 目标只需要在已中标项目上做到约 13% 的年复合增长。✅ 两个超大规模云厂商的定制芯片项目已拿到订单、晶圆已经投片（12 月季度开始确认收入），外加与 Meta 的多代际协议（Dragonfly C1000 CPU），是从 Arm 手里赢过来的。✅ 净负债 0.5 倍，负债/资产 26.6%；股本每年 −2.7% + 2.26% 股息，股息只用掉 37% 的自由现金流；目前有超过 $1.50 的每股收益被内存涨价冲击压住；FY25 那笔税务费用之后，FY27 税率降到 13-14%。⚠️ 但 QTL 已经停止增长（$5,572M→$5,582M→约 $5.2B），而且每台 $400 的授权费上限意味着 9 月的涨价对它毫无帮助 —— 它是地板，不是引擎。⚠️ QCT 手机收入约 68% 押在中国 OEM 身上；8 个月里 $8.7B 的并购（Alphawave · Ventana · Modular），同时还在做 $9.25B 的回购、资本开支翻倍；Arm 在第三巡回法院的上诉仍未了结。⚠️ 五个月里走了 $128 → $259 → $148 → $163 —— 所谓「距高点 −40%」，量的是一个只持续两个月的叙事高点，而且光是 8/04 一天就因为板块贝塔 +7.3%。合理价值 $120-160。加仓 $120-138，低于 $115 是强力买入。减仓线 18x 前瞻。 ⭐ 唯一一个有日期、可证伪的检验： 管理层说 FY27 非手机业务 +60% 以上的增长，会在一年之内补上 FY26 那约 $7.5B 的苹果收入。12 月季度是第一次读数 —— 晶圆都已经投片了，数据中心收入就必须出现。如果出现了，在更低的价格上这就是 [7]；如果没出现，那个把股价推到 $259 的 FY29 目标从 $22B 上调到 $40B 的故事就要作废。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 34%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- -4%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 2.49%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
The patent-licensing business is the durable core — phone makers must license the patents regardless of whose chips they buy. The weakness is concrete: Apple, a large customer, is moving to its own modems, and handsets are about 63% of company revenue, so Qualcomm depends heavily on the premium-phone cycle.专利授权业务才是持久的核心——不管手机厂商买谁的芯片，都必须为这些专利付授权费。它的短板也很具体：大客户苹果正在改用自己的基带，而且手机业务约占公司收入的63%，所以 Qualcomm 高度依赖高端手机的周期。
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Datacenter buildout pace. SOX −28.6% (peak 6/22 → 7/29), $3.3T of sector cap gone in 5 weeks — every name fell regardless of its own results.
Size the bucket, not the name. (ORCL's own analysis says this.)
Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Arm Holdings, NVIDIA and QualcommZacks
- The AI secret behind Qualcomm's price hikeTheStreet
- Qualcomm’s Next Growth Engine Could Send Shares Much Higher24/7 Wall St.
- Qualcomm Stock's Biggest Risk Is The Gap Between Pain And PayoffTrefis
- QCOM Q2 Deep Dive: Data Center and Automotive Growth Offset Smartphone HeadwindsStockStory