AI & Infrastructure CapexAI 与基础设施资本开支
Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT 6.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
Near the buy zone接近买入区间
What the company does公司做什么
Applied Materials builds the machines that add, remove and shape the material layers on a silicon wafer. It is the largest chip-equipment company by revenue. KLA inspects the wafer; Applied Materials changes it.Applied Materials制造在硅晶圆上添加、去除和塑形各层材料的机器。按收入算，它是最大的芯片设备公司。KLA检查晶圆，而Applied Materials改变晶圆。
Earns from营收来源 machine sales to chip factories, plus a large service and spare-parts business that earns for as long as the machine runs.来自卖给芯片工厂的机器，加上一块很大的服务和备件业务，只要机器还在运转就一直在赚钱。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
What the company sells公司卖什么
The machines themselves.这些机器本身。
- Deposition沉积
- Adds a layer of metal or insulator a few atoms thick across the whole wafer.在整片晶圆上加一层只有几个原子厚的金属或绝缘体。
- Etch刻蚀
- Removes material in an exact pattern to cut the shapes of the circuit.按精确的图案去除材料，刻出电路的形状。
- Ion implantation离子注入
- Fires ions into the silicon to change how it conducts. Applied Materials has long led this step.把离子射入硅中，改变它的导电方式。应用材料长期在这道工序上领先。
- Chemical mechanical planarisation化学机械平坦化
- Polishes the wafer flat between layers, because the next layer cannot print on an uneven surface.在层与层之间把晶圆抛光磨平，因为下一层无法印在不平的表面上。
Plus:此外： Applied Global Services应用全球服务 — Service contracts, spare parts and refurbished tools for the installed base. This revenue repeats and falls less in a downturn than machine sales面向已安装设备的服务合同、备件和翻新工具。这部分营收会重复出现，而且在行业下行时的下滑比卖机器要小; Display显示屏 — Equipment that makes screens for televisions and phones. A small and cyclical part制造电视和手机屏幕的设备。这是一小块、周期性很强的业务.
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1967
- Headquarters总部
- Santa Clara, California
- Employees员工人数
- 36,400
- Industry行业
- Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
👀 Analyzed 7/29 — the drawdown did NOT create the entry. −38.9% off high but still +151% over 52wks and 23% above its 200-DMA; at 42.5x trailing / 37.4x FY26 non-GAAP / 67.6x FCF vs its own 14-29x historical band (~20-22x avg) — roughly 2x its average multiple after a 39% crash. Q2 GAAP $3.51 vs non-GAAP $2.86.
What's working
- Fortress: net cash, 18% D/A, ~30x coverage, 49.9% GM (best in 25yrs), AGS annuity ($7.1B backlog = all of Semi Systems, >90% renewal)
- Supply-constrained, not demand-constrained — every peer guided UP, no forecaster sees a 2027 WFE contraction; the −39% is ~100% multiple de-rating, 0% earnings revision. Burry short is real but unverifiable (no 13F — Scion deregistered) and a technical call, not the accounting thesis. FV $290-370. Entry $300-350, strong <$270. Trim/avoid >$420. ⭐ Watch 8/13 — a GAAP "miss" from the BESI mark on a quarter that grew ~23% would be the mispricing.
Red flags
- FCF/share peaked FY23 at $8.99, now $6.69 — 3 straight down years; capex doubled to $2.65B
- ROIC 44%→~33% (invested capital +72%, op income +6.6%) — and Moat independently found AMAT lost served-market share in 2025 while LRCX/KLAC/ASML all gained. Process control 9.8% vs KLA's 73.8%; ion-implant precedent >75%→<60%
- Insiders sold ~$157M, bought $0 — CEO Dickerson sold $105M at $590-736 (incl. the 6/30 top) after buying $6.9M at $137; buybacks cut ~70%
❌ 入场区间 $300-350 现在比现价低 56%。 32.1x 前瞻市盈率。等 8/13 财报 —— 在一个增长约 23% 的季度里，因 BESI 持股按市值计价而出现的 GAAP「不及预期」，仍然是值得关注的错误定价。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 40%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +11%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 0.42%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
A chip factory qualifies each machine for months before use, so the factory rarely changes supplier for a proven step. The service business then earns for a decade. The weakness is that Applied Materials competes in more steps than it leads.一家芯片工厂在使用前要花好几个月来验证每一台机器，所以对于一个已经验证过的工序，工厂很少更换供应商。之后的服务业务能赚上十年。它的弱点在于，Applied Materials参与竞争的工序比它领先的工序要多。
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