lululemon athletica inc.
LULU 3.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Greece, and internationally. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities.
Read the full description查看完整介绍
lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Greece, and internationally. It offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. The company also provides fitness-inspired accessories. It sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Products and services产品与服务 from the vendor summary — not yet written up来自供应商简介——尚未整理成文
- The company also provides fitness-inspired accessories It sells its products through company-operated stores
- Seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios
- Like New, a re-commerce program
- Its e-commerce website
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1998
- Employees员工人数
- 39,000
- Industry行业
- Apparel Retail
- Country国家
- Canada
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
🔄 A2026-09-10 — 2nd FY guide cut fired the downgrade trigger: WATCH [5.0]→[3.5]. Americas comp −12%, China +13%→−8% and accelerating; the $2.92 'beat' was 30% a one-time tariff refund. Fair not cheap (FV $74-145, ~$96). Entry $75-85, trim 13x fwd. New-CEO reset (O'Neill, Sep 8) still ahead. —— 👀 ANALYZED 8/11 — first file ever. WATCH; entry $100-110 and the September print is the gate. ⏳ Q2 FY26 ~Sept 3-4 lands with Heidi O'Neill (30-yr Nike veteran) starting as CEO in September — a new CEO on the print with every incentive to kitchen-sink guidance. The highest-probability negative catalyst on this list. Passes this sleeve's test only conditionally: the problem is specific and management-diagnosed (newness 23%→35% of assortment by spring 2027), but that is a merchandising fix, not a moat repair, and the sleeve's discipline is to say so.
What's working
- The counter-signal that keeps this alive: inventory is CLEAN — dollars up mid-to-high single digits, units flat to slightly down. A melting brand carries a glut; this one does not
- 54.2% gross margin, ~33% ROIC, effectively net cash ($1.81B cash; the $1.80B "debt" is operating leases), 10.6% of shares retired in 18 months
- Michael Burry opened ~$107M in the Q1 13F, no sales as of 7/30
- Chip Wilson proxy fight settled — Maurer and Gentile added, a third product/brand director due by 10/01. ⚖️ Graham $102-108, and here Graham has real footing (genuine book value in inventory, stores, cash) — it says the stock is 16-23% above fair value. Reverse-DCF prices a stabilised no-growth Lululemon: neither recovery nor collapse. A coin flip, priced as one.
- The only 8/11 name outside the AI-displacement cluster and the portfolio holds almost no consumer discretionary — genuine diversification value. FV $95-150 (central $120). Trim 16x fwd.
Red flags
- Five consecutive quarters of declining Americas comps (Q1 −6%). McDonald's own words: the brand became "too predictable," assortments went "stale," seasonal colours were rejected
- The number the 10.2x P/E hides: FCF fell 42% ($1.58B→$922M) on +4.8% revenue. P/FCF is 14.8x. And forward P/E 11.4x is ABOVE trailing — the E is falling, not the price cheapening. Guide cut 6/04 to $11.0-11.15B / $10.95-11.15 EPS vs $13.26 delivered
- China cracked twice — +13% comps but 8 points were CNY timing (underlying ~+5%), then the 5/30 Great Wall festival used a Japanese taiko drum and drew a public apology. 19% of revenue and it is the only engine
- Zero switching costs, and all three legs of the actual moat are under attack: fabric/fit commoditised (Alo, Vuori), store-as-studio physically contested (Alo ~99 US stores, Vuori 93 and IPO-prep, both opening adjacent deliberately), and the full-price norm being spent down — markdowns improve only "modestly", YoY declines not until 2H26. Once a premium brand teaches customers to wait for the sale, the price point resets and does not easily return.
- Tariffs −280bps to Q1 product margin, ~$275M unmitigated annual hit (Vietnam ~40% / Cambodia ~18% / Sri Lanka ~11%)
- Buybacks $1.18B exceeded FCF $922M, drawing cash
Watch
- Sleeve rule applies.
Would upgrade on
- Upgrade: Americas comps inflecting positive YoY markdown declines confirmed sub-$110 post-print with the thesis intact.
🔄 A2026-09-10 —— 第二次下调全年指引，触发降级条件：观察 [5.0]→[3.5]。 美洲同店销售 −12%，中国从 +13% 转为 −8% 且降幅在扩大；表面『超预期』的每股收益 $2.92 中有 30% 来自一次性关税退款。 估值合理但不算便宜（公允价值 $74-145，约 $96）。 入场 $75-85，减持 13x fwd。 新任 CEO（O'Neill，9 月 8 日到任）的重整仍在后头。 —— 👀 8/11 已分析——史上第一份文件。 观察；买入区间 $100-110，9 月的财报是闸门。 🚩 美洲同店销售已连续五个季度下滑（Q1 为 −6%）。 🚩 10.2x 市盈率掩盖的那个数字：自由现金流下跌 42%（$1.58B→$922M），而收入还增长了 4.8%。 前瞻市盈率 11.4x 高于历史市盈率——是分母 E 在掉，不是股价变便宜。 🚩 中国这台唯一的引擎裂了两次。 🚩 转换成本为零，护城河三条腿（面料/版型、门店即工作室、不打折规范）全部在被攻击。 ✅ 库存干净，毛利率 54.2%，ROIC 约 33%，实质净现金，18 个月内回购注销 10.6% 股份。 公允价值 $95-150（中枢 $120）。 减持 16x 前瞻市盈率。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 31%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- -4%
Competitive advantages竞争优势 from the thesis and the reports来自投资逻辑和报告
- Passes this sleeve's test only conditionally: the problem is specific and management-diagnosed (newness 23%→35% of assortment by spring 2027 ), but that is a merchandising fix, not a moat repair, and the sleeve's discipline is to say so.
- McDonald's own words: the brand became "too predictable," assortments went "stale," seasonal colours were rejected .
- Once a premium brand teaches customers to wait for the sale, the price point resets and does not easily return.
- A melting brand carries a glut; this one does not.
- ✅ Chip Wilson proxy fight settled — Maurer and Gentile added, a third product/brand director due by 10/01 .