Adobe Inc.
ADBE 6.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
Near the buy zone接近买入区间
What the company does公司做什么
Adobe sells the software that professionals use to make images, video, documents and web pages. Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere and the PDF format are its work. Almost every designer and marketing department uses at least one of these tools.Adobe销售专业人士用来制作图像、视频、文档和网页的软件。Photoshop、Illustrator、Premiere和PDF格式都是它的作品。几乎每一个设计师和市场部门都至少用到其中一样工具。
Earns from营收来源 monthly and annual subscriptions, which renew at a high rate.来自按月和按年的订阅费，续约率很高。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Adobe Inc. operates as a technology company worldwide. The Digital Media segment offers products and services that enable individuals, teams, and enterprises to create, publish, and promote content. This segment serves photographers, video editors, graphic and experience designers, game developers, content creators, students, marketers, business owners, knowledge workers, and consumers. The Digital Experience segment provides an integrated platform; and products, services, and solutions that enable brands and businesses to create, manage, execute, measure, monetize, and optimize customer experiences from analytics to commerce. This segment serves marketers, advertisers, agencies, publishers, merchandisers, merchants, web analysts, data scientists, developers, and executives across the C-suite. The Publishing and Advertising segment offers e-learning, technical document publishing, web conferencing, document and forms platform, web application development, printing, and Adobe Advertising solutions. It also provides consulting, training, customer management, technical support, and learning services. The company offers its solutions to enterprise customers, and businesses and consumers; and licenses its products to end-user customers through app stores and website at adobe.com. It markets and distributes its products through distributors, retailers, software developers, mobile app stores, systems integrators, independent software vendors, value-added resellers, and original equipment and hardware manufacturers. The company also provides an online visibility management and content marketing software-as-a-service platform. The company has a strategic alliance with HUMAIN for the development of generative AI models and AI-powered applications. The company was formerly known as Adobe Systems Incorporated and changed its name to Adobe Inc. in October 2018. Adobe Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
What the company sells公司卖什么share of revenue营收占比
Digital Media数字媒体
The creative tools and the document tools. This is the larger part of the company.创意工具和文档工具。这是公司较大的一部分。
- Creative Cloud
- Photoshop for images, Illustrator for drawings, Premiere for video, and about twenty other tools sold as one subscription.处理图像的 Photoshop、画图的 Illustrator、剪辑视频的 Premiere，以及大约二十个其他工具，作为一个订阅一起出售。
- Document Cloud (Acrobat)Document Cloud（Acrobat）
- Creates, signs and edits PDF files. Adobe created the PDF format.创建、签署和编辑 PDF 文件。PDF 格式就是 Adobe 发明的。
- Firefly
- Adobe's own image and video generation models, trained on licensed material so that commercial use is safe.Adobe 自己的图像和视频生成模型，用有授权的素材训练，所以用于商业用途是安全的。
Digital Experience数字体验
Software that large companies use to run marketing campaigns and to measure them.大公司用来开展和衡量营销活动的软件。
- Adobe Experience Manager
- Manages the content on a large company's websites and apps.管理一家大公司网站和应用上的内容。
- Adobe Analytics
- Measures what visitors do on those sites.衡量访客在这些网站上做了什么。
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1982
- Headquarters总部
- San Jose, California
- Former name曾用名
- Adobe Systems Incorporated
- Employees员工人数
- 31,360
- Industry行业
- Software - Application
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
👀 On Deck, gated on the CEO appointment. 🔻 FV cut $380-460 → $290-360; moat 7.5 → 6.0. Q2 (6/11) was a real beat-and-raise — rev $6.62B +13%, non-GAAP EPS $5.96 +18%, FY26 guide raised twice above street — and the stock fell 5%. The ceiling broke, not the floor: Adobe guided FY26 ARR growth down to 10.2% from a 12.5% exit rate, ~half of it from deferring Creative Cloud price increases, the rest from routing users into free products (creative freemium MAU 50M → 90M), with monetization pushed to 2027. A company that declines to take price on its flagship is not being priced as a compounder because it is not behaving as one — so 18-20x FCF became 13-16x.
What's working
- Still elite: 89.3% GM expanding, 36.6% op margin expanding, ~39% ROIC, 41.4% FCF margin, 9.14% FCF yield, near net-cash, shares −3.2%/yr, $25B buyback ≈ 25% of cap, SBC 19.7% of FCF and falling (passes the disqualifier that killed most of the March software cohort)
- Acrobat 850M MAU +20%, AI Assistant ARR 3x — untouched
- Director David Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) bought $1.95M at $194.51, within 2.3% of the low, his 2nd open-market buy
- FTC case closed, $150M, immaterial. Entry $225-260, strong buy <$210, Trim 13x fwd. ⏳ Q3 prints Thu 9/10 (confirmed) — watch total ARR vs the 10.2% guide, not revenue; a revenue beat with an ARR miss confirms the bears → [5.5]. An internal CEO pick (Wadhwani/Chakravarthy) = upgrade to [7]
Red flags
- No permanent CEO (month 5, announcement publicly slipped its expected date) and no permanent CFO — Durn left with 4 days' notice for Marvell (assessed benign: ex-AMAT, audit risk 1, no restatement, didn't dump stock)
- Reported ARR +12.5% is flattered by ~$480M acquired Semrush ARR — organic ~10.5%, six straight quarters decelerating
- AI-first ARR >$500M tripled YoY but is 1.85% of ARR — BofA's "defensive retention, not additive growth" is numerically correct today
- 4 downgrades + ~20 PT cuts on a beat-and-raise; MS → Underweight $240, BofA Underperform $190; mean tgt $269.61 but median $250 is BELOW spot
- Non-GAAP flatters +35.9% over GAAP — the honest multiple is 14.1x GAAP, not 10.4x
- Moat: Affinity went permanently free (reads/writes PSD), Canva $4B ARR / B2B +100%, Figma +46% NDR 139% — the attack is seat compression, not user loss, and it needs no one to be better than Photoshop
Watch
- Yahoo's "+257 net shares purchased" is FALSE — 30 of 31 "buys" are RSU vests/grants; corrected net −$16.7M
- Old break triggers were unusable — Adobe discontinued Digital Media ARR reporting in Q2 FY26.
🔻 8/04 分析 —— 下调评级 [7.5] → [6.5]，合理价值 $380-460 → $290-360，从「累积买入」降为「观察」。 第二季度（6/11）确实是超预期并上调指引 —— 营收 $6.62B，同比 +13%，非公认会计准则每股收益 $5.96，同比 +18%，2026 财年指引两次上调且高于市场预期 —— 股价仍然下跌 5%。破掉的是天花板，不是地板： Adobe 把 2026 财年 ARR 增速指引从 12.5% 的季度退出增速下调到 10.2%，其中约一半来自推迟 Creative Cloud 涨价，另一半来自把用户引导到免费产品（创意类免费用户月活 50M → 90M），变现推迟到 2027 年。一家不愿对旗舰产品涨价的公司，市场不再按复利成长股给它估值，是因为它现在的行为就不是复利成长股 —— 所以自由现金流倍数从 18-20x 降到 13-16x。🚩 没有正式 CEO（已第 5 个月，公布时间还公开跳票过），也没有正式 CFO —— Durn 只提前 4 天通知就离职去了 Marvell（判定为良性：前 AMAT 高管，审计风险评分 1，无财报重述，也没有抛售股票）。🚩 报告口径 ARR +12.5% 被约 $480M 收购而来的 Semrush ARR 美化 —— 有机增速约 10.5%，已连续六个季度减速。🚩 AI 优先 ARR 超过 $500M、同比翻三倍，但只占总 ARR 的 1.85% —— 美银「只是防御性留存，不是增量增长」的说法在今天数字上是对的。🚩 在一份超预期并上调指引的财报之后，出现 4 次评级下调 + 约 20 次目标价下调；摩根士丹利下调至减持 $240，美银跑输大市 $190；平均目标价 $269.61，但中位数 $250 低于现价。🚩 非公认会计准则比公认会计准则高出 35.9% —— 诚实的倍数是 14.1x 公认会计准则，不是 10.4x。🚩 护城河：Affinity 已永久免费（可读写 PSD），Canva $4B ARR / B2B +100%，Figma +46%、净留存率 139% —— 真正的攻击是席位压缩，不是用户流失，而且不需要任何人做得比 Photoshop 更好。✅ 依然顶尖：89.3% 毛利率且在扩张、36.6% 营业利润率且在扩张、约 39% ROIC、41.4% 自由现金流利润率、9.14% 自由现金流收益率、接近净现金、股本每年 −3.2%、$25B 回购约等于市值的 25%，股权激励占自由现金流 19.7% 且在下降（通过了淘汰掉三月软件股名单中大多数公司的那道筛子）。✅ Acrobat 月活 850M，+20%，AI Assistant ARR 翻三倍 —— 未受冲击。✅ 董事 David Ricks（礼来 CEO）以 $194.51 买入 $1.95M，距离低点仅 2.3%，这是他第二次公开市场买入。⚠️ 雅虎显示的「净买入 +257 股」是错误的 —— 31 笔「买入」中有 30 笔是限制性股票归属/授予；修正后净额为 −$16.7M。✅ 美国联邦贸易委员会案件已了结，$150M，影响不重大。买入区间 $225-260，强烈买入 <$210，减持 13x 前瞻市盈率。⏳ 第三季度财报 9/10 周四（已确认） —— 要看的是总 ARR 对比 10.2% 的指引，而不是营收；营收超预期但 ARR 不及预期，就坐实了空头逻辑 → [5.5]。若由内部人选出任 CEO（Wadhwani/Chakravarthy）= 上调至 [7]。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 63%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +13%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
The file formats are the industry standard, so work made in one studio opens in another. A professional spends years learning these tools, so the cost to change is personal as well as financial. That is why price rises hold.这些文件格式是行业标准，所以在一个工作室里做出来的作品能在另一个工作室里打开。一个专业人士要花好几年才能学会这些工具，所以更换的代价既是钱上的，也是个人的。这就是为什么涨价站得住脚。
Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天
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