T-Mobile US, Inc.
TMUS 6.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
In the buy zone在买入区间内
What the company does公司做什么
T-Mobile US is a wireless carrier. It sells mobile phone and data plans to people and businesses across the United States. It also sells home internet service over its cell network, and it sells phones and other devices. Deutsche Telekom owns more than half of the company.T-Mobile US是一家无线运营商。它向美国的个人和企业销售手机及数据套餐,同时通过其蜂窝网络提供家庭宽带服务,并销售手机等设备。德国电信持有该公司超过一半的股份。
Earns from营收来源 monthly service plans (postpaid and prepaid), device sales, and wholesale access sold to other carriers.月度服务套餐(后付费和预付费)、设备销售,以及向其他运营商出售的批发接入服务。
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T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale and other services customers. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, tablets, home broadband gateways, headsets, and other mobile communication devices, as well as accessories; financing through equipment installment plans; reinsurance for device insurance policies and extended warranty contracts. The company offers services under the T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, customer care channels, national retailers, and its websites, as well as through T-Mobile, Metro by T-Mobile, and Mint Mobile apps. It also sells devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. It has 700 MHz wireless spectrum licenses. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington. T-Mobile US, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom AG.
Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue按收入占比
This is the main profit engine. Customers who join a family plan or finance a phone through T-Mobile tend to stay, because leaving means paying off the device and re-signing with a new carrier. The risk here is price competition — rival carriers now offer cheaper entry-level plans.这是主要的利润引擎。加入家庭套餐或通过T-Mobile分期购机的客户往往会留存下来,因为离网意味着要还清设备欠款并重新与新运营商签约。这里的风险在于价格竞争——竞争对手运营商现在提供更便宜的入门级套餐。
- Magenta / Go5G plansMagenta / Go5G 套餐 — unlimited talk, text, and data plans with different perks like streaming bundles and international roaming.不限量通话、短信和数据套餐,附带流媒体套装和国际漫游等不同权益。
- 5G Home Internet5G家庭宽带 — a home Wi-Fi router that uses the cell network instead of cable or fiber lines.一款使用蜂窝网络而非有线电视或光纤线路的家庭Wi-Fi路由器。
Equipment revenue moves with phone upgrade cycles and new iPhone/Android launches. Margins here are thin — the real value to T-Mobile is that a financed phone locks a customer into a multi-year plan.设备收入随手机换机周期以及新款iPhone/安卓机型发布而波动。这部分业务的利润率较薄——对T-Mobile真正的价值在于,分期购机能将客户锁定在多年期套餐中。
- Device financing设备分期 — a customer pays for a new phone in monthly installments, tied to their service plan.客户按月分期付款购买新手机,并与其服务套餐绑定。
Prepaid customers pay in advance and can leave any month with no penalty, so this business is more exposed to price wars than postpaid. It reaches budget-conscious customers the postpaid brand does not.预付费客户提前付费,可在任何一个月无违约金地离网,因此这项业务比后付费业务更容易受到价格战冲击。它触达了后付费品牌未能覆盖的预算有限型客户。
- Metro by T-Mobile — a no-contract prepaid brand aimed at value-focused customers.面向注重性价比客户的无合约预付费品牌。
Cable companies like Comcast and Charter sell their own mobile plans by renting capacity on other carriers' networks; T-Mobile's own wholesale book is smaller than rivals', which limits how exposed it is to this specific reselling trend.Comcast和Charter等有线电视公司通过租用其他运营商的网络容量来销售自己的移动套餐;T-Mobile自身的批发业务规模小于竞争对手,这限制了它在这一转售趋势中的敞口。
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1994
- Headquarters总部
- Bellevue, Washington
- Employees员工人数
- 75,000
- Industry行业
- Telecom Services
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
Would upgrade on
- ANALYZED 8/28 — ACCUMULATE, first file. Best-network wireless oligopoly (Ookla #1) trading below its own 2024-25 EV/EBITDA & P/FCF floor while FCF, service-revenue and EBITDA guidance are being RAISED, not cut — the "down a lot, below its own band, growing base" case. The de-rating is dateable: an AT&T/Verizon entry-tier price war + a self-inflicted rate-plan-modernization churn spike guided into Q3, not deteriorating fundamentals. Young, fast-growing dividend (27% FCF payout) + heavy buyback. FV $185-230. Entry $165-185. Trim 24x ttm.
🟢 8/28 分析——增持，首份报告。 最佳网络的无线寡头（Ookla 第一），在自身 2024-25 年 EV/EBITDA 与 P/FCF 底部下方交易，而 FCF、服务收入与 EBITDA 指引都在被上调而非下调——‘跌得多、在自身区间下方、基数仍在增长’的情形。 重估有明确来由：AT&T/Verizon 入门档价格战 + 管理层自身指引进 Q3 的费率计划现代化流失高峰，而非基本面恶化。 年轻、快速增长的股息（27% FCF 派息率）+ 大额回购。 公允价值 $185-230，买入区 $165-185，减持 24x ttm。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 18%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +8%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 2.83%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
T-Mobile holds a large block of mid-band spectrum from the Sprint merger, which gives it faster average network speeds than Verizon and AT&T. Spectrum licenses are limited and government-granted, so a new rival cannot simply build the same network capacity.T-Mobile通过Sprint合并获得了大量中频段频谱资源,使其平均网速快于Verizon和AT&T。频谱牌照数量有限且由政府发放,新竞争对手无法轻易建立同等规模的网络容量。