Genpact Limited
G 6.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
In the buy zone在买入区间内
$32.66
$30–36 entry买入$54.17+ full value估值上限 · 12× fwd52wk52周 $27–$49-33% off the high距高点
What the company does公司做什么
Genpact Limited, an agentic and advanced technology solutions company, provides digital transformation, business process management, technology, data, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) services to enterprises in India, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, and Europe.
The company has strategic alliance with Google Cloud.
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Genpact Limited, an agentic and advanced technology solutions company, provides digital transformation, business process management, technology, data, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) services to enterprises in India, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, and Europe. Its Financial Services segment offers customer onboarding, customer service, collections, retail and commercial loan operations, payment operations, mortgage origination and servicing, compliance, wealth management, capital market operations support, financial crime and risk management, proprietary insurance policy suite, underwriting support, new business processing, policy administration, customer, claims management, catastrophe and exposure/risk modeling, actuarial services, end-to-end third-party administration for property and casualty claims, and technology services. The company's Consumer and Healthcare segment provides demand generation, sensing and planning, supply chain planning and management, pricing and trade promotion management, deduction recovery management, order management, digital commerce, customer experience, lifecycle management, regulatory operations, chemistry manufacturing control compliance, regulatory information management, claims processing and adjudication, claims recovery and payment integrity, revenue cycle management, health equity analytics, and care services. Its High Tech and Manufacturing segment offers solutions for trust and safety, advertising sales support, customer and user experience, customer care support, supply chain management, direct and indirect procurement, logistics, field, aftermarket support, and engineering services. It offers digital operations, data-tech-AI, advisory, agent technology; and finance and accounting, human resources, sales and commercial operations, marketing, and global business solutions. The company has strategic alliance with Google Cloud. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Business segments业务板块 3
Consumer and Healthcare
High Tech and Manufacturing
- It offers digital operations, data-tech-AI, advisory, agent technology
- Finance and accounting, human resources, sales and commercial operations, marketing, and global business solutions
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1997
- Employees员工人数
- 141,000
- Industry行业
- Information Technology Services
- Country国家
- Bermuda
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
What's working
- ATS $363M +24.1% (27% of revenue), FY26 ATS target raised to ≥25%; largest-ever quarterly bookings, six $50M+ deals in Q2 vs 6 in all of H1'25; agentic TCV >$200M in 2025 → >$1B targeted 2026, over half from new clients
- 3yr fundamentals are genuinely good, not an artifact: operating income +36.7% on +16.2% revenue (real leverage, unlike AKAM or DBX), FCF +23% CAGR $389M→$724M, OCF conversion 81%→107% of operating income, gross margin 35.2%→36.5% and rising — the one quantitative signal that separates moat erosion from moat intact, pointing the right way. ROIC 13.9%, ROE 22.4%. Net debt $688M = 0.95x one year's FCF, interest covered 10.3x
- ~7.2% shareholder yield: nine straight dividend raises (~13%/yr, FY26 $0.75) at a 17.5% FCF payout — the dividend survives a 75% FCF cut — plus ~5%/yr buyback, and they bought 1.20M shares at $38.15 in Jan-Feb, cheaper as it fell
- Client concentration beats the "GE captive" reputation badly: top-5 15.2%, top-10 23.4%, no client >10% of receivables, GE no longer disclosed at all. ⚖️ Graham IV $34.13 against a $34.09 tape — a four-cent gap. The only name in the 8/11 batch where Graham lands on the market price, and it is Graham's natural habitat. Nothing is being paid for the future. 🔍 Reverse-DCF: EV $6.63B on $724M FCF prices −2 to −3% FCF decline in perpetuity, in a business compounding FCF at 23%. That gap is the trade
Red flags
- The bear case is contractual, not narrative — the 10-K states "some of our MSAs and SOWs require certain minimum productivity benefits to be passed on to our clients." AI efficiency can be revenue-negative by contract. Management is candid about it, which is worth something against Infosys refusing to quantify
- Core Business Services is 73% of revenue growing 1.9% and DECELERATING from 3.8%. ATS cannot carry the company if the core turns negative
- 24% growth in 27% of the business bought only 25bps of FY26 margin — if agentic work is not structurally higher-margin the mix shift is a treadmill
- Every insider is a seller with zero open-market buys; Kalra is 13 sells / 0 buys in five years — the loudest negative and the hardest to explain at 7.9x. ⚖️ Nalanda (Pulak Prasad) added 1.02M shares in Feb — a concentrated quality buyer, and the more informed of the two groups
- Industry BPO ACV −14% in 2025; WNS taken out by Capgemini at $3.3B; JPM Underweight, Citi Neutral, ~−30% YTD
Watch
- EXITED $30-36 by 4.7% (8/27) — dropped off the shortlist this week on price alone; spot is still below the $39-48 FV floor. ANALYZED 8/11, first file ever. ACCUMULATE. Passes this sleeve's test cleanly: a specific problem with a metric that closes the gap. The problem is that the market prices Genpact for the terminal decline of seat-based BPO at 7.9x forward / 8.0x FCF (12.6% FCF yield); the metric is revenue growth against average headcount growth, and it has now been positive for two quarters. 🔍 Q2 2026: revenue +7.1% on average headcount −2.6% — productivity index 1.04. Through FY25 it ran the other way (revenue/employee $36.3k→$34.8k). In the same fortnight Infosys grew 2.4% and CUT guidance. That divergence is the only hard test in this cohort → [[pattern-headcount-revenue-divergence-tests-ai-deflation]]
- Two quarters is not a trend — that is exactly why 6.5 and not 8.
- FY23 net income $631M sits at operating income $627M — a tax item. Use operating income and FCF for the trend, never net income. FV $39-48 (central $43). Entry $30-36, in zone now. Trim 12x fwd.
- Sleeve rule applies — exit when the gap closes.
- Cluster discipline: G / INFY / DBX / AKAM are one trade in four costumes, all cheap on the same AI-displacement repricing, all resolving on the same question. Own G from that cluster, not four. Also correlated with the held ACN / CTSH / EPAM / IBM — see Concentration Map.
Would upgrade on
- Upgrade: four consecutive quarters of the divergence → 7.5 any insider open-market purchase a take-private bid.
⭐ 在 $30-36 买入区间内 — 8/11 已分析，史上第一份文件。 ACCUMULATE（逐步买入）。 ** Genpact，业务流程外包与数据/AI 服务。 它干净地通过了这个板块的检验标准：一个具体的问题，加上一个能把估值差距关上的指标。 问题是市场按「按人头计价的 BPO 模式终将消亡」来定价，给出 7.9x 前瞻市盈率 / 8.0x 自由现金流（12.6% 自由现金流收益率）；指标是收入增速与平均员工人数增速的对比，而它已经连续两个季度为正。 🔍 2026 年 Q2：收入 +7.1%，平均员工人数 −2.6% — 管理层的「生产力指数」为 1.04。 整个 FY25 期间这个数字是反着走的（人均收入 $36.3k→$34.8k）。 在同一个两周内，Infosys 收入只增长 2.4% 并且下调了指引。 这个背离是整个行业里唯一的硬性检验 → [[pattern-headcount-revenue-divergence-tests-ai-deflation]]。 ✅ ATS 板块 $363M，+24.1%（占收入 27%），FY26 的 ATS 目标上调至 ≥25%；史上最大单季预订额，Q2 有六笔 $50M+ 的合同，而 2025 上半年全期只有 6 笔；智能体（agentic）合同总价值 2025 年超过 $200M，2026 年目标 >$1B，其中一半以上来自新客户。 ✅ 三年基本面是真的好，不是会计假象：营业利润 +36.7%，而收入只增长 +16.2%（真正的经营杠杆，不像 AKAM 或 DBX），自由现金流年复合增速 +23%，从 $389M 到 $724M，经营现金流对营业利润的转化率从 81% 升到 107%，毛利率 35.2%→36.5% 并在上升 — 这是区分护城河侵蚀与护城河完好的唯一量化信号，而它指向正确的方向。 ROIC 13.9%，ROE 22.4%。 净负债 $688M，等于 0.95 年的自由现金流，利息覆盖率 10.3x。 ✅ 约 7.2% 的股东回报率：连续九年提高股息（年均约 13%，FY26 为 $0.75），派息只占自由现金流的 17.5% — 就算自由现金流砍掉 75%，股息依然安全 — 外加每年约 5% 的回购，而且他们在 1-2 月以 $38.15 买入了 120 万股，股价越跌买得越便宜。 ✅ 客户集中度远好过它「GE 附属公司」的名声：前五大客户占 15.2%，前十大占 23.4%，没有任何客户超过应收账款的 10%，GE 已经完全不再被单独披露。 ⚖️ 格雷厄姆内在价值 $34.13，对上 $34.09 的股价 — 相差四美分。 这是 8/11 这批股票中唯一一个格雷厄姆模型正好落在市场价上的名字，而且这正是该模型最擅长的场景。 市场对未来一分钱都没有支付。 🔍 反向 DCF：企业价值 $6.63B 对上 $724M 自由现金流，隐含永续每年 −2% 到 −3% 的自由现金流衰退，而这家公司的自由现金流正以 23% 的速度复合增长。 这个差距就是这笔交易。 🚩 看空理由是写进合同的，不只是叙事 — 10-K 明文写着「我们的部分 MSA 和 SOW 要求把一定的最低生产力收益让渡给客户」。 AI 带来的效率可能按合同就是收入负面的。 管理层对此直言不讳，相比 Infosys 拒绝量化，这一点是有价值的。 🚩 核心业务服务（CBS）占收入 73%，增速只有 1.9%，而且从 3.8% 在减速。 如果核心转负，ATS 撑不住整家公司。 🚩 占收入 27% 的业务增长 24%，却只买来 25 个基点的 FY26 利润率扩张 — 如果智能体业务在结构上并不是更高毛利，这个业务结构转换就是一台跑步机。 🚩 所有内部人都在卖出，没有任何公开市场买入；Kalra 五年内 13 次卖出、0 次买入 — 这是最响亮的负面信号，也是在 7.9x 估值下最难解释的一点。 ⚖️ Nalanda（Pulak Prasad）在 2 月增持了 102 万股 — 一个集中持股、看重质量的长期买家，在两群人里是更了解情况的那一方。 🚩 行业 BPO 年度合同价值 2025 年 −14%；WNS 被 Capgemini 以 $3.3B 收购；摩根大通给「减持」，花旗给「中性」，年初至今约 −30%。 ⚠️ 两个季度不构成趋势 — 这正是为什么信心分是 6.5 而不是 8。 ⚠️ FY23 净利润 $631M 几乎等于营业利润 $627M — 那是一个税务项目。 判断趋势请用营业利润和自由现金流，绝不要用净利润。 合理价值 $39-48（中枢 $43）。 买入区间 $30-36，现在就在区间内。 减持 12x 前瞻市盈率。 ⚠️ 板块规则适用 — 估值差距关上就退出。 ⚠️ 集群纪律：G / INFY / DBX / AKAM 是同一笔交易的四套衣服，全都因为同一个「AI 取代」重新定价而便宜，全都取决于同一个问题。 从这个集群里只拿 G，不要拿四个。 同时它也与已持有的 ACN / CTSH / EPAM / IBM 相关 — 见集中度地图。 **
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
$389M 2022to至$724M 2025+23.0%/yr
$4.37B 2022to至$5.08B 2025+5.1%/yr
$653M 2022to至$899M 2025+11.2%/yr
$353M 2022to至$552M 2025+16.1%/yr
183M 2022to至170M 2025-2.3%/yr
$1.70B 2022to至$1.76B 2025+1.3%/yr
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
Gross profit毛利润
36%
Operating profit营业利润
15%
Net profit净利润
11%
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 22%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +7%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 2.27%
Competitive advantages竞争优势 from the thesis and the reports来自投资逻辑和报告
- Margin direction is the one quantitative signal that separates moat erosion from moat intact, and here it points the right way.
- But the 10-K states MSAs "in most cases do not specify pricing terms or obligate the client to purchase a particular amount" — contract length overstates lock-in .
- The agentic pivot and the rebrand are his.
- Moat replies that the 10-K contains a clause requiring productivity give-backs on some contracts, and that every digitised process makes the "context moat" more portable.
- Fundamentals owns the last eight quarters; Moat owns the terminal question.