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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM 6.5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
TSMC is the world's largest contract chip maker (foundry). It does not sell chips under its own brand. Instead, it makes chips for other companies, such as Apple, Nvidia, and AMD, using the designs those companies supply. TSMC leads the world in making the most advanced chips.台积电是全球最大的合约芯片制造商（晶圆代工厂）。它不以自己的品牌销售芯片，而是为苹果、英伟达和AMD等其他公司按照其提供的设计制造芯片。台积电在制造全球最先进芯片方面处于领先地位。
Earns from营收来源 TSMC earns money by charging customers a fee to manufacture the chips they design, based on the chip's size, complexity, and the manufacturing process used.台积电通过向客户收取制造费用来赚钱，费用根据客户设计芯片的尺寸、复杂程度和所用制造工艺计算。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比
This platform makes the advanced processors and AI accelerator chips used in data centers and supercomputers. Demand from artificial intelligence companies, such as Nvidia and AMD, has pushed this segment to become TSMC's largest source of revenue. It uses TSMC's most advanced manufacturing processes, such as 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technology.该平台生产用于数据中心和超级计算机的先进处理器和人工智能加速芯片。来自英伟达和AMD等人工智能公司的需求，使该板块成为台积电最大的收入来源。它采用台积电最先进的制造工艺，例如3纳米和5纳米技术。
This platform makes the processor chips found in smartphones, including chips for Apple's iPhone. It was TSMC's largest platform for many years, but growth in AI chip demand has now pushed it to second place. Demand for smartphone chips tends to rise and fall with the release cycle of new phone models.该平台生产智能手机内部的处理器芯片，包括苹果iPhone所用的芯片。多年来它一直是台积电最大的业务板块，但如今人工智能芯片需求的增长已使其降至第二位。智能手机芯片需求往往随新款手机的发布周期而起伏。
This platform makes chips for devices that connect to the internet but are not computers or phones. Examples include smartwatches, fitness trackers, smart speakers, and sensors used in factories and homes.该平台为连接互联网但非电脑或手机的设备生产芯片。例如智能手表、健身追踪器、智能音箱，以及用于工厂和家庭的传感器。
This platform makes chips used in vehicles, including chips for driver-assistance systems, engine and battery control, and in-car entertainment screens. Demand for automotive chips has grown as cars add more electronics and as makers build more electric vehicles.该平台生产用于车辆的芯片，包括驾驶辅助系统、引擎和电池控制以及车内娱乐屏幕所用的芯片。随着汽车配备的电子设备增加以及电动汽车产量上升，汽车芯片的需求也在增长。
This category covers chip revenue that TSMC does not place into its named platform groups, such as niche or emerging applications.该类别涵盖台积电未归入其他命名业务板块的芯片收入，例如小众或新兴应用领域。
This platform makes chips for consumer electronic devices outside of smartphones and computers, such as game consoles, digital televisions, and digital cameras. It is TSMC's smallest reported platform.该平台为智能手机和电脑以外的消费电子设备生产芯片，例如游戏机、数字电视和数码相机。它是台积电所披露业务板块中规模最小的一个。
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1987
- Headquarters总部
- Hsinchu City, Taiwan
- Employees员工人数
- 76,907
- Industry行业
- Semiconductors
- Country国家
- Taiwan
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
What's working
- The business is the best on this entire watchlist and is still improving — foundry share 70.4% → 72.3% in one quarter (Samsung 6.5%), ROIC 21.7% → 26.3% while invested capital grew NT$5.26T → NT$6.39T (more capital at a higher return), gross margin 56.1% → 59.9% → 67.7% (Q2), incremental operating margin 67.1%. Q2 revenue $40.2B +36% YoY, EPS +77.4%. Net cash ~$54B, debt/assets 13.4%, interest coverage ~157x, share count dead flat four years
- The adversarial stress-test drew no blood — the rarest outcome this framework issues: Intel has ZERO committed external customers on 18A and 14A (two prospects, decisions H2'26-H1'27; reports it may axe 18A for foundry entirely); Samsung hit a real 70% SF2P yield but converts to 6.5% share; no hyperscaler is building a leading-edge fab. N2 has 4x N3's tape-outs at the same stage (>20 received, >70 pipeline, already 3% of wafer revenue), and TSMC pre-announced price increases up to 10% for 2027
Red flags
- The "19.3x fwd" was a wrong-fiscal-year vendor figure. Yahoo's forward EPS implied ~$21.60; the actual 2026 consensus is $15.91, so the true multiple is 26.2x — confirmed by the company's own prints (Q1 $3.49/ADR + Q2 US$4.31/ADR = ~$7.80 H1, which cannot annualise to $21.60) and by three independent vendors at 24.5-25.3x. Yahoo was the outlier, not the consensus →
pitfall-vendor-forward-eps-is-the-wrong-fiscal-year. FV $432-518 → $350-480, entry ≤$400 → ≤$360, ACCUMULATE → WATCH. Spot is AT fair value, not below it. - The exposure is concentration, not competition: Nvidia is now 19% of revenue (was 12%), Apple 17% (was 22%) — and Nvidia holds ~60% of 2026 CoWoS output with the top 3 at >85%. Growth is levered to one customer's capex plan
- TSMC is building away its own scarcity — CoWoS 35K→75K→125-130K wpm target, supply gap narrowing 20% → 10% by end-2026
- Three of four classical models say expensive — DYT $246 (0.92% yield vs 1.55% 5yr avg), DDM $175, Graham $95, P/FCF ~69x. All three are the wrong tools (27.6% payout, 56% of OCF reinvested at 26.3% ROIC), but "the models are wrong" ≠ "the stock is cheap" — the buyer here leans entirely on the earnings case
- Taiwan is not a drawdown a fair price compensates — it is a binary to ~zero, and no entry price fixes it. The margin of safety can only ever be business quality → argues for a smaller position, not for paying any price.
Watch
- ANALYZED 8/04 — first file ever. DOWNGRADED [7.0] → [6.5] within hours of the sweep that added it, and the reason is a data error in the sweep itself.
- Dividend-grower overlay (the sweep missed this): 10yr div CAGR +15.7%, but the USD dividend went NOWHERE 2021-23 ($1.892→$1.856→$1.847) on TWD weakness — a US holder's income is a TWD dividend with an unhedged FX overlay.
- Mean tgt $540 (+29.5%), every post-Q2 action a RAISE, zero downgrades in 8 months, most cautious live rating a Hold at $440 — treat unanimity as risk, not confirmation
- Ignore reported P/B 87 and Graham $35.44 (ADR unit artifacts; real P/B ≈12.8x) →
pitfall-adr-book-value-corrupts-price-to-book; roic.ai's per-share fields are ALSO wrong on this name (4.669B divisor, matching neither the 25.93B ordinary nor 5.186B ADR count) — the two vendors fail differently, so cross-checking them does not surface it - Sleeve placement is deliberate — it passes the "does a datacenter pause hurt this?" test, so it belongs here, which means TSM is NOT diversification against AVGO/KLAC/AMAT/MU/ANET; it is the largest and highest-quality expression of the same bet, sharing customers with AVGO. Entry ≤$360 (≈22.6x), strong <$320 (≈20x). Trim 32x fwd. Moat 9/10 — highest issued; fundamentals 9.5/10. At $360 this is a [7.5]; at $320 an [8.0]. At $417 it is hold-your-fire.
📋 🔴 8/04 分析 —— 史上第一份报告。 信心度从 [7.0] 下调至 [6.5]，而且是在把它加入自选的同一天之内，原因是那次扫描本身的一处数据错误。 ** 🚩 所谓"19.3 倍前瞻市盈率"是一个财年错配的供应商数据。 ** 雅虎的前瞻每股收益隐含约 $21.60；而 2026 年的实际市场一致预期是 $15.91，因此真实倍数是 26.2 倍 —— 这一点已由公司自己的财报证实（第一季度 $3.49/ADR + 第二季度 US$4.31/ADR = 上半年约 $7.80，不可能年化到 $21.60），并有三家独立数据商给出的 24.5-25.3 倍佐证。 雅虎才是异类，不是市场一致预期 → pitfall-vendor-forward-eps-is-the-wrong-fiscal-year。 合理价值 $432-518 → $350-480，入场 ≤$400 → ≤$360，增持 → 观望。 现价正处于合理价值，而非低于它。 ** ✅ 这门生意是整个自选清单里最好的，而且仍在变得更好 —— 代工市占率单季度从 70.4% 升至 72.3%（三星 6.5%），投入资本回报率从 21.7% 升至 26.3%，同期投入资本从 NT$5.26T 增至 NT$6.39T（更多的资本、更高的回报率），毛利率 56.1% → 59.9% → 67.7%（第二季度），增量营业利润率 67.1%。 第二季度营收 $40.2B，同比 +36%，每股收益 +77.4%。 净现金约 $54B，负债/资产 13.4%，利息保障倍数约 157 倍，股本连续四年纹丝不动。 ✅ 对抗性压力测试没有见血 —— 这是本框架给出过最罕见的结论：英特尔在 18A 和 14A 上都是零个已承诺的外部客户（两家潜在客户，决策在 2026 下半年至 2027 上半年；有报道称它可能干脆放弃面向代工客户的 18A）；三星确实做到了 70% 的 SF2P 良率，但只转化为 6.5% 的市占率；没有任何一家超大规模云厂商在建先进制程晶圆厂。 N2 在同一阶段的流片量是 N3 的 4 倍（已收到 >20 个，管线中 >70 个，已占晶圆收入的 3%），而台积电已提前宣布 2027 年最高提价 10%。 🚩 风险敞口在客户集中度，而不在竞争：英伟达现已占营收 19%（此前 12%），苹果 17%（此前 22%）—— 且英伟达锁定了 2026 年 CoWoS 产出的约 60%，前三大客户合计 >85%。 增长已经绑定在单一客户的资本开支计划上。 🚩 台积电正在亲手拆掉自己的稀缺性 —— CoWoS 产能 35K→75K→目标 125-130K 片/月，供需缺口在 2026 年底从 20% 收窄至 10%。 🚩 四个经典模型里有三个说贵 —— 股息率理论 $246（0.92% 股息率 vs 五年均值 1.55%）、股息贴现模型 $175、格雷厄姆 $95、市现率约 69 倍。 这三个都是错误的工具（派息率 27.6%，经营现金流的 56% 以 26.3% 的投入资本回报率再投资），但"模型是错的"不等于"股票便宜" —— 在这个价位，买入者完全依赖盈利增长这一条腿。 ⚠️ 股息增长型叠加分析（那次扫描漏掉了）：十年股息年复合增长 +15.7%，但美元股息在 2021-23 年原地踏步（$1.892→$1.856→$1.847），原因是新台币走弱 —— 美国持有人拿到的是一份带着未对冲汇率敞口的新台币股息。 ⚠️ 平均目标价 $540（+29.5%），第二季度财报后每一次评级动作都是上调，八个月内零下调，最谨慎的在评级是 $440 的持有 —— 把这种一致性当作风险，而不是确认。 ❌ 忽略报告中的 87 倍市净率和 $35.44 的格雷厄姆值（ADR 单位换算的伪影；真实市净率约 12.8 倍）→ pitfall-adr-book-value-corrupts-price-to-book；roic.ai 在这只票上的每股数据同样是错的（除数为 4.669B，既不等于 25.93B 的普通股数，也不等于 5.186B 的 ADR 数）—— 两家数据商以不同的方式出错，所以互相交叉验证并不能发现问题。 🚩 台湾不是一个合理价格可以补偿的回撤 —— 它是一个归零的二元风险，任何入场价都无法解决。 这里的安全边际只可能是企业质量 → 这意味着应该降低仓位，而不是意味着可以在任何价格买入。 ⚠️ 归入本篮子是刻意为之 —— 它通过了"数据中心建设暂停会不会伤到它"的测试，所以它属于这里，这也意味着 TSM 并不能分散 AVGO/KLAC/AMAT/MU/ANET 的风险；它是同一笔押注中规模最大、质量最高的表达形式，并且与 AVGO 共享客户。 入场 ≤$360（约 22.6 倍），强力买入 <$320（约 20 倍）。 减持 32 倍前瞻。 护城河 9/10 —— 迄今给出的最高分；基本面 9.5/10。 在 $360 它是 [7.5]；在 $320 是 [8.0]。 在 $417，按兵不动。 **
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 40%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +36%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 0.90%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
TSMC holds a near-monopoly on making the most advanced chips in the world, such as 3-nanometer and upcoming 2-nanometer chips. Few rivals can match its production yield, scale, or the trust it has built with chip designers over decades. This lead gives TSMC strong pricing power and makes it hard for rivals to win business from top customers, such as Apple and Nvidia.台积电在制造全球最先进芯片（例如3纳米以及即将推出的2纳米芯片）方面几乎处于垄断地位。很少有竞争对手能在生产良率、规模，或数十年来与芯片设计公司建立的信任方面与之匹敌。这一领先地位赋予台积电强大的定价能力，也使竞争对手难以从苹果和英伟达等顶级客户手中抢走业务。