AI & Infrastructure CapexAI 与基础设施资本开支
Oracle Corporation
ORCL 7Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
Oracle sells the database that large organisations keep their records in, the business software that runs on it, and now rented computing power. Banks, governments and airlines have used the database for decades and moving off it is a multi-year project.Oracle卖的是大机构用来存放记录的数据库、运行在数据库之上的商业软件，以及现在的出租算力。银行、政府和航空公司用这个数据库已经几十年了，要换掉它是一个要花好几年的工程。
Earns from营收来源 software licences and support fees, which are steady, plus cloud capacity, which is growing fast and needs very heavy spending on data centres first.来自软件授权费和支持费，这部分很稳定；再加上云计算容量，这部分增长很快，但需要先在数据中心上投入非常大的开销。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Oracle Corporation offers products and services that build, run and support enterprise information technology frameworks worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering includes various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle cloud license and on-premise license; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database and MySQL Database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, as well as AI, Internet-of-Things, machine learning, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support services, and consulting and advanced customer services. It markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation has a strategic alliance with Metron, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比
This part of the business sells software as a cloud subscription and collects support fees on software that customers already own. Fusion and NetSuite run as subscriptions, and support fees protect the Oracle Database, the product that Oracle's other software builds on. It is the largest and steadiest part of Oracle's revenue.这部分业务以云订阅方式销售软件，并对客户已经拥有的软件收取支持费用。Fusion和NetSuite以订阅方式运行，支持费用保护Oracle Database，这是Oracle其他软件的基础。这是Oracle收入中最大、最稳定的部分。
- SaaS cloud applicationsSaaS 云应用 $15.9B — Fusion ERP and NetSuite, sold as cloud subscriptions to run finance, HR, and operations.Fusion ERP 和 NetSuite，以云订阅方式销售，用于运行财务、人力资源和运营。
- Software support软件支持 $19.8B — Recurring fees on the Oracle Database and other software customers already own — the steady, high-margin core.对客户已拥有的 Oracle 数据库及其他软件收取的经常性费用——稳定、高利润的核心。
- New software licences新软件授权 $4.7B — One-time sales of on-premises software licences, a shrinking legacy line.一次性出售的本地部署软件授权，是一条正在萎缩的旧业务线。
This part of the business rents out computer servers and storage in Oracle's data centres. Customers rent large blocks of graphics processors under multi-year contracts to train AI models. It is Oracle's fastest-growing segment — revenue grew 77% in fiscal 2026 — and the reason the market re-rated the stock.这部分业务在Oracle的数据中心出租计算服务器和存储空间。客户通过多年合同租用大量图形处理器，用于训练人工智能模型。这是Oracle增长最快的部门——2026财年收入增长77%——也是市场对该股重新估值的原因。
- AI training capacityAI 训练算力 — Large blocks of graphics processors rented under multi-year contracts. This is the reason the order book has grown so fast.以多年合同方式租出的大批图形处理器。这就是订单量增长如此之快的原因。
This part of the business sells computer servers and consulting services that help customers set up and run Oracle software. It is the smallest and slowest-growing part of Oracle's revenue, a legacy of the company's on-premises past.这部分业务销售计算机服务器，并提供咨询服务，帮助客户安装和运行Oracle软件。这是Oracle收入中最小、增长最慢的部分，是公司本地部署时代遗留下来的业务。
- Hardware硬件 $3.1B — Servers and engineered systems such as Exadata, built to run Oracle databases fast.服务器和一体化系统（如 Exadata），专为高速运行 Oracle 数据库而打造。
- Services服务 $5.7B — Consulting that installs, upgrades, and runs Oracle software for large customers.为大型客户安装、升级并运行 Oracle 软件的咨询服务。
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1977
- Headquarters总部
- Austin, Texas
- Employees员工人数
- 141,000
- Industry行业
- Software - Infrastructure
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
🔄 A2026-09-10 — Q1 FY27 beat-and-raise: HOLD [6.5]→[7.0]. Rev +30%, RPO $664B, OCI +121%, FY27 EPS guide up, capex unchanged; spot near top of the bull band → no add. FV $90-170, entry $110-129 (closed), trim 21x fwd. Risks (BBB- credit, OpenAI/Stargate concentration) untouched by the beat. —— 🔄 RE-ANALYZED 8/28 (/analyze-from-before) — HOLD [7.0]→[6.5], direction unchanged, conviction trimmed. Zero new fundamentals since the 7/23 baseline (FY27 print ~Sep 9-10); price re-rated +20% ($126→$152) on sentiment (Citi catalyst call), moving true current-FY P/E 15.7x → 18.85x — use the FY27 guide (~$8.05), never the vendor forwardPE (silently FY2028 here → [[pitfall-vendor-forward-eps-is-the-wrong-fiscal-year]]).
What's working
- RPO/backlog: RPO $638B (+363%), OCI +93%
- De-risking: $75B of new AI contracts now BYO-hw/prepaid = real de-risking
Red flags
- S&P cut ORCL to BBB- (one notch above junk) on 7/09 — zero ratings buffer against the leverage + deeply-negative-FCF risk both prior files flagged. Add zone $110-129 fired week of 7/27 (low $114.50) and passed; do-nothing $129-161. Trim 21x current-FY (~$169+). A2026-08-28. —— 👀 [7/23 baseline ↓] Approaching $110-115 stage. Small hard-capped satellite.
- Cash & balance sheet: FCF −$23.7B → ~−$50B FY27, debt $156B (+$52B/yr), $20B dilutive ATM, ROIC ↓12%
- Governance: active fraud suit, co-CEO transition
Watch
- Verdict tension: ~15.7x fwd for +34% guided growth = cheap on earnings, uninvestable on cash
- Valuation: FV $95-155
🔄 A2026-09-10 —— FY27 第一季度超预期并上调指引：持有 [6.5]→[7.0]。 营收 +30%，RPO $664B，OCI +121%，FY27 每股收益指引上调，资本支出维持不变；现价接近乐观区间上沿→不加仓。 公允价值 $90-170，入场 $110-129（区间已过），减持 21x fwd。 风险（BBB- 信用评级、OpenAI/Stargate 集中度）未因这次超预期而改变。 —— 🔄 8/28 重新分析——持有 [7.0]→[6.5]，方向不变，信念下调。 股价因情绪重估 +20%（$126→$152），真实当年市盈率从 15.7x 升至 18.85x。 🚩 标普 7/09 将 ORCL 下调至 BBB-（仅高于垃圾级一档）——对杠杆与深度负自由现金流风险毫无评级缓冲。 加仓区间 $110-129 已过；观望区间 $129-161。 减持 21x 当年（约 $169+）。 🚩 自由现金流 −$23.7B → FY27 约 −$50B，债务 $156B（每年 +$52B），$20B 稀释性 ATM 增发，ROIC 降至 12%。 A2026-08-28
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 41%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +30%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 1.46%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
The database holds the records a business cannot risk losing, and the software written against it is expensive to rewrite. That protects the support fees. The cloud business does not yet have the same protection; it competes on price and capacity.数据库里存着企业不能冒险丢失的记录，而针对它编写的软件重写起来很贵。这保护了支持费收入。云业务目前还没有同样的保护，它靠价格和容量来竞争。
Related companies相关公司 🔴 AI capex — BUYERS of the capacity (split out 8/12)
Separated from the sellers because they sit on the opposite side of the same trade. DOCN, AKAM and ORCL buy the capacity AVGO/KLAC/AMAT sell.
Do not read a low reported capex number as low capital intensity — check finance leases and the adjusted-FCF definition first. DOCN's own metric excludes lease-financed equipment; AKAM's does not.