Intuit Inc.
INTU 7Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
Intuit makes money software for people and small businesses — TurboTax for filing taxes, QuickBooks for small-business bookkeeping, and Credit Karma for personal credit. These are the products most Americans reach for at tax time and when they start a business.Intuit生产面向个人和小企业的理财软件——用于报税的TurboTax、用于小企业记账的QuickBooks、以及用于个人信用的Credit Karma。这些是大多数美国人在报税季和创业时最先想到的产品。
Earns from营收来源 subscriptions and per-use fees from consumers and small businesses.来自消费者和小企业的订阅费和按次使用费。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Intuit Inc. provides financial management, payments and capital, compliance, and marketing products and services in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Global Business Solutions, Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax. The Global Business Solutions segment provides QuickBooks services, which include financial and business management online services, desktop software, payroll solutions, time tracking, merchant payment processing and bill pay solutions, checking accounts, and financing services for small and mid-market businesses; and Mailchimp, a marketing automation and customer relationship management. This segment also offers QuickBooks online services and desktop software solutions comprising QuickBooks Online, QuickBooks Live, QuickBooks Online Advanced, QuickBooks Self-Employed, QuickBooks Solopreneur financial and business management offerings, QuickBooks Online Payroll, QuickBooks Checking, QuickBooks Desktop software subscriptions, and QuickBooks Assisted Payroll. The Consumer segment provides do-it-yourself and assisted TurboTax income tax preparation products and services. The Credit Karma segment offers consumers with a personal finance platform that provides recommendations for credit card, home, auto, and personal loan, and insurance products; online savings and checking accounts; and access to its credit scores and reports, credit and identity monitoring, credit report dispute, credit building tools, and tools. The ProTax segment provides Lacerte, ProSeries, and ProFile desktop tax-preparation software products; and ProConnect Tax Online bill pay tax products, electronic tax filing service, and bank products and related services. It sells products and services through direct sales channels, multichannel shop-and-buy experiences, mobile application stores, and partner and other channels. Intuit Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比
QuickBooks is small-business accounting software. It handles bookkeeping, payroll, payments, and bank feeds, so it holds the full financial record of the business. Mailchimp adds email marketing for the same small-business customers. This is Intuit's largest and fastest-growing segment, because once a business and its accountant depend on QuickBooks data, they rarely move to a different system.QuickBooks是一款面向中小企业的记账软件。它涵盖记账、工资发放、收款和银行数据对接，因此保存着企业完整的财务记录。Mailchimp则为同一批中小企业客户提供电子邮件营销服务。这是Intuit最大且增长最快的板块，因为一旦企业及其会计师依赖QuickBooks的数据，他们就很少更换其他系统。
- QuickBooks — Accounting software for a small business, plus payroll, payments, and bank feeds. It is the business's book of record.面向小企业的会计软件，外加薪资、收款和银行对账。它是企业的账簿记录。
- Mailchimp — Email marketing for small businesses.面向小企业的邮件营销工具。
TurboTax lets people prepare and file their own tax return, with an option to pay for help from a live tax expert. Almost all the revenue arrives in a few months around the tax deadline, so the segment is highly seasonal. It competes against paid preparers, free filing software, and the IRS's own free filing program.TurboTax让用户可以自行准备并申报个人所得税，也可以付费获得税务专家的在线协助。几乎全部收入集中在报税截止日前后的几个月内，因此该板块季节性很强。它的竞争对手包括专业报税员、免费报税软件，以及美国国税局（IRS）自己推出的免费申报项目。
Credit Karma is a free app that shows a person's credit score and matches them to credit cards, loans, and insurance offers. Intuit earns a fee from the lender or insurer each time a match leads to an approved product, not from the user. It gives Intuit a channel into a person's finances before they become a small-business owner or file a return.Credit Karma是一款免费应用，向用户展示其信用评分，并为其匹配信用卡、贷款和保险产品。Intuit的收入来自放贷机构或保险公司在匹配成功并获批后支付的费用，而非向用户收费。这为Intuit提供了一个渠道，在用户成为小企业主或申报纳税之前就先接触到其财务状况。
ProTax sells tax preparation software, such as Lacerte and ProSeries, to professional accountants and tax preparers rather than to individual filers. It is Intuit's smallest segment, but professional preparers train their staff on one system and rarely switch once client files and workflows depend on it.ProTax向专业会计师和报税员（而非个人申报者）销售税务准备软件，例如Lacerte和ProSeries。这是Intuit最小的板块，但专业报税员会让员工统一培训使用一套系统，一旦客户文件和工作流程都依赖该系统，他们就很少更换。
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1983
- Headquarters总部
- Mountain View, California
- Employees员工人数
- 18,600
- Industry行业
- Software - Application
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
What's working
- A2026-09-22 — ACCUMULATE, conviction [7.5]→[7.0]. FV $385-475 → $350-440 entry $305-350 → $280-320 strong buy <$262 trim 29x ttm (~$477). $295.83 IS AN ADD — inside the band at the 40th pct, ~$16 of room. TRANCHE IT, not full size. ⭐ THE QUICKBOOKS-FREE SCARE IS A FUNNEL, DECISIVELY: on 8/01, three weeks BEFORE the print, Intuit RAISED QBO Plus $115→$140 (+22%) and Advanced $275→$340 (+24%), holding only Free/Lite/Ledger/Simple Start flat. “Free” is a metered $0 tier (2 invoices/mo, 1 bank, no accountant access, no AI) that goes unlimited only if you enable QuickBooks Payments — it monetises BEFORE it upsells; 20k customers in month one. Gross margin 80.2% and rising a 4th straight year; QBO accounting revenue +20% on HIGHER effective prices. 🔻 The price cut is in TurboTax, NOT QuickBooks — management’s “the number one reason customers left us was price” was about the DIY tax low end, the segment already written down
- Break triggers fired: ZERO of seven (GBS +13-14%, QBO accounting +23%, dividend +15%, GM 80.2%, no AI-native filer >2M returns)
- RE-ANALYZED 8/27 off the 8/25 print — UPGRADED [7.0] → [7.5]. IN the re-derived $305-350 band, at the TOP EDGE (inside by 0.8% — a boundary, not a buy signal).
- FY2026 delivered: revenue $21.4B +14%, GAAP EPS $16.46 +20%, non-GAAP $24.27 +20%, GAAP operating margin 27.5% (+130bps)
- The 8/04 file wrote an explicit falsification test — "~15% (to ~$1.38/qtr) says the FCF story is intact" — and management delivered +15% to $1.38 to the cent (16th straight raise)
- Buyback $5.5B, +96%; share count −2% for the first time; new $8B authorization (8.4% of cap). Dividend takes only ~17% of FCF (the 8/04 file said 25% on the wrong denominator)
- 93% thesis persistence (14 of 15 structural+trend claims held). FY27 guide: revenue $23.28-23.51B +9-10%, non-GAAP EPS $22.88-23.12, +23-24% — 15.1x forward. FV $385-475 (mid $430, +11-37%). Entry $305-350 strong buy <$285.
- The moat is QuickBooks, not TurboTax: 200,000+ ProAdvisors vs Xero's ~30,000; ~80% of the US online SMB market; Xero paid up to $3B for Melio and still gets ~7% of revenue from North America. QBO Accounting +22%, Intuit Enterprise Suite +38%, GBS guide raised to ~16%
- 14.0% rev CAGR, 23.3% net income CAGR, 18.5% FCF CAGR, op margin +610bps/3yr, D/A 18%, positive tangible book, non-GAAP flatters only +15.4% (vs ADBE's +35.9%)
- Dividend: 1.52%, 15 straight raises, 15.3% 5yr CAGR, ~25% FCF payout — covered 4x.
- 10b5-1 plans terminated 3/16 + buyback doubled (~6% of shares in FY26).
Red flags
- Two findings cut conviction: FY26’s headline +41.7% FCF is ~65% a deferred-tax swing (OBBBA §174) — clean FCF grew +13%, not 42%; and TurboTax Live decelerates 37% → mid-teens because 3/4 of its adds were DIY upgrades — the damage escaped the segment it was written off in.
- Consumer is conceding the low end BY CHOICE: TurboTax units −2% while revenue +7% and Live +37%; FY27 TurboTax guided +2-3% because Intuit is CUTTING entry-level pricing; online paying customers +3% to 8.9M
- Mailchimp guided flat-to-negative FY27
- A favourable 8/04 claim RETRACTS: "non-GAAP flatters less than half as much as Adobe's" was a single seasonal quarter — full-year GAAP $16.46 vs non-GAAP $24.27 is +47.4%, WIDER than ADBE's +35.9%.
- ROIC only ~15% vs ADBE's ~39% — $13.98B goodwill (71% of equity); the moat was bought, not built. This caps the multiple at 18-21x FCF, not 25x+
- Mailchimp is a 2-3pt drag on GBS and the worst asset in the file
- Low-end price umbrella permanently gone; Stifel models TurboTax 4-6% vs mgmt's 6-10%
- Founder Cook sold ~$276M in Dec 2025, the month before the collapse (10b5-1, not foreknowledge, but it sits behind the class actions); only genuine open-market buy is one director, $541k
- Shorts 5.78% of shares, +28.6% MoM; Fundsmith exited; buy-share 82% → 69% in 3mo; Truist cut 8/3
Watch
- The new 3yr GBS algorithm (15-20% → 10-15%) has a floor BELOW the file’s own 12% break trigger, so the trigger could never fire — RE-SET to GBS revenue growth <10%, i.e. below the new algorithm's own floor. —— Prior 8/27: ⭐
- The 8/04 file's central worry was FALSE: it recorded "TTM FCF has fallen to ~$5.23B" — that figure is the Q3 FY26 SINGLE QUARTER, misread as a trailing year. FY2026 FCF came in at $8.617B, UP 41.7% (OCF $8.838B − capex $221M, company release). See [[pitfall-single-quarter-fcf-read-as-ttm]]
- The previously recorded band sat ABOVE spot and was wrong — set against a stale fair value, it made three consecutive scans log this as "still below its add zone" while the stock sat inside buy range; see [[pitfall-stale-entry-zone-suppresses-a-name]]. The −68% peak-to-trough was a narrative de-rate, not an earnings one: FY26 total guidance was raised three times during the fall (rev +13-14%, non-GAAP EPS +18%); Q1/Q2/Q3 all beat; the only cut was the TurboTax line, ~$40M — which cost ~$21B of market cap. 🔍 The key finding: the 2026 share loss was a PRICE attack, not an AI attack. Units went to FreeTaxUSA ($0 fed/$15.99 state) and Cash App Taxes ($0) — neither AI-native, both years old — in the very season IRS Direct File was killed, i.e. Intuit got the policy win it lobbied for and still lost the low end. Meanwhile TurboTax Live grew +36% rev, +38% customers, +11% ARPU (now ~53% of TurboTax revenue) — the exact segment an LLM should have gutted. Goldman's $0.12-vs-$162 math breaks twice: the numerator is a blended figure loaded with human-assisted revenue (DIY list is $69-129), and the denominator ignores 41 state engines, annual IRS ATS re-certification, a 45-day EFIN suitability check, and the reserve behind a 7-year accuracy guarantee. Perplexity's tax agent cannot legally e-file at all.
- DYT is VOID here — the 2.27x yield-vs-history is entirely price-caused (price alone predicts 2.86x); see
pitfall-dyt-inverts-when-price-caused-the-yield. Trailing PE 21.09 / EPS $16.46 are verified against the company's own FY26 GAAP EPS. [[pitfall-multiple-trim-inherits-the-broken-vendor-field]]. ⏳ 8/25 PRINT = FY26 results + first FY27 guidance + the annual dividend raise, all in one release. 21 days. Hold all, optional ≤⅓ add, reserve the bulk.*
✅ A2026-09-22 —— 加仓，信心 [7.5]→[7.0]。 合理价值 $385-475 → $350-440 买入区间 $305-350 → $280-320 <$262 强烈买入 减持 29x ttm（约 $477）。 $295.83 是一个加仓点 —— 处于区间内的第 40 百分位，还有约 $16 的空间。 分批买，不要一次建满。 ** ⭐ 「QuickBooks 免费版」的惊吓其实是一个漏斗，而且证据很确凿：在 8/01，也就是财报前三周，Intuit 把 QBO Plus 从 $115 涨到 $140（+22%），Advanced 从 $275 涨到 $340（+24%），只有 Free/Lite/Ledger/Simple Start 保持不变。 「免费」是一个计量式的 $0 层级（每月 2 张发票、1 个银行账户、不能给会计师访问权限、没有 AI），只有开通 QuickBooks Payments 才变成无限 —— 它是先变现，再升销；第一个月就有 2 万客户。 毛利率 80.2%，已经连续第 4 年上升；QBO 会计业务收入在更高的实际价格上还 +20%。 ** 🔻 降价发生在 TurboTax，不是 QuickBooks —— 管理层那句「客户离开我们的第一大原因是价格」说的是 DIY 报税的低端市场，那个分部早就已经被减值了。 ✅ 触发的破位条件：七条里一条都没有（GBS +13-14%，QBO 会计 +23%，股息 +15%，毛利率 80.2%，没有任何 AI 原生报税商报出 >200 万份报税）。 🚩 两个发现压低了信心：FY26 那个 +41.7% 的自由现金流标题数字，约 65% 来自递延所得税的摆动（OBBBA 第 174 条）—— 干净的自由现金流增长是 +13%，不是 42%；另外 TurboTax Live 从 37% 减速到十几点，因为它新增客户的四分之三是 DIY 升级而来 —— 损害已经逃出了那个被减值的分部。 ** ⚠️ 新的三年 GBS 增长目标（15-20% → 10-15%）的下限低于这份文件自己的 12% 破位触发条件 —— 要么重新设定它，要么它永远不可能触发。 **
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 24%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +14%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 2.00%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
QuickBooks is the record of a small business's finances, and the outside accountant is trained on it. Once the data and the bank feeds live there, moving off is disruptive and rarely done.QuickBooks是一家小企业财务的记录本，而外部会计师也是在它上面受训的。数据和银行对接一旦落在里面，搬走既费事又很少有人去做。
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