Intuit Inc.
INTU 7Price and target zones价格与目标区间
Near the buy zone接近买入区间
What the company does公司做什么
Intuit makes money software for people and small businesses — TurboTax for filing taxes, QuickBooks for small-business bookkeeping, and Credit Karma for personal credit. These are the products most Americans reach for at tax time and when they start a business.Intuit生产面向个人和小企业的理财软件——用于报税的TurboTax、用于小企业记账的QuickBooks、以及用于个人信用的Credit Karma。这些是大多数美国人在报税季和创业时最先想到的产品。
Earns from营收来源 subscriptions and per-use fees from consumers and small businesses.来自消费者和小企业的订阅费和按次使用费。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Intuit Inc. provides financial management, payments and capital, compliance, and marketing products and services in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Global Business Solutions, Consumer, Credit Karma, and ProTax. The Global Business Solutions segment provides QuickBooks services, which include financial and business management online services, desktop software, payroll solutions, time tracking, merchant payment processing and bill pay solutions, checking accounts, and financing services for small and mid-market businesses; and Mailchimp, a marketing automation and customer relationship management. This segment also offers QuickBooks online services and desktop software solutions comprising QuickBooks Online, QuickBooks Live, QuickBooks Online Advanced, QuickBooks Self-Employed, QuickBooks Solopreneur financial and business management offerings, QuickBooks Online Payroll, QuickBooks Checking, QuickBooks Desktop software subscriptions, and QuickBooks Assisted Payroll. The Consumer segment provides do-it-yourself and assisted TurboTax income tax preparation products and services. The Credit Karma segment offers consumers with a personal finance platform that provides recommendations for credit card, home, auto, and personal loan, and insurance products; online savings and checking accounts; and access to its credit scores and reports, credit and identity monitoring, credit report dispute, credit building tools, and tools. The ProTax segment provides Lacerte, ProSeries, and ProFile desktop tax-preparation software products; and ProConnect Tax Online bill pay tax products, electronic tax filing service, and bank products and related services. It sells products and services through direct sales channels, multichannel shop-and-buy experiences, mobile application stores, and partner and other channels. Intuit Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
What the company sells公司卖什么
QuickBooks and Mailchimp. FY2025 revenue was $11.1 billion.QuickBooks 和 Mailchimp。2025财年收入为$11.1 billion。
- QuickBooks
- Accounting software for a small business, plus payroll, payments, and bank feeds. It is the business's book of record.面向小企业的会计软件，外加薪资、收款和银行对账。它是企业的账簿记录。
- Mailchimp
- Email marketing for small businesses.面向小企业的邮件营销工具。
Plus:此外： Consumer消费者 (26%) — TurboTax — do-it-yourself and expert-assisted tax filing. FY2025 revenue was $4.9 billionTurboTax——自助式和专家协助式报税。2025财年收入为$4.9 billion; Credit Karma (12%) — A free app to check your credit score and get matched to cards and loans. FY2025 revenue was $2.3 billion一个免费应用，用来查看你的信用评分，并匹配到合适的信用卡和贷款。2025财年收入为$2.3 billion; ProTax (3%) — Professional tax software for accountants面向会计师的专业报税软件.
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1983
- Headquarters总部
- Mountain View, California
- Employees员工人数
- 18,200
- Industry行业
- Software - Application
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
👀 On Deck — IN ZONE, gated on the 8/25 print. Entry $300-345 strong buy <$280.
What's working
- The moat is QuickBooks, not TurboTax: 200,000+ ProAdvisors vs Xero's ~30,000; ~80% of the US online SMB market; Xero paid up to $3B for Melio and still gets ~7% of revenue from North America. QBO Accounting +22%, Intuit Enterprise Suite +38%, GBS guide raised to ~16%
- 14.0% rev CAGR, 23.3% net income CAGR, 18.5% FCF CAGR, op margin +610bps/3yr, D/A 18%, positive tangible book, non-GAAP flatters only +15.4% (vs ADBE's +35.9%)
- Dividend: 1.52%, 15 straight raises, 15.3% 5yr CAGR, ~25% FCF payout — covered 4x.
- 10b5-1 plans terminated 3/16 + buyback doubled (~6% of shares in FY26).
Red flags
- ROIC only ~15% vs ADBE's ~39% — $13.98B goodwill (71% of equity); the moat was bought, not built. This caps the multiple at 18-21x FCF, not 25x+
- Mailchimp is a 2-3pt drag on GBS and the worst asset in the file
- Low-end price umbrella permanently gone; Stifel models TurboTax 4-6% vs mgmt's 6-10%
- Founder Cook sold ~$276M in Dec 2025, the month before the collapse (10b5-1, not foreknowledge, but it sits behind the class actions); only genuine open-market buy is one director, $541k
- Shorts 5.78% of shares, +28.6% MoM; Fundsmith exited; buy-share 82% → 69% in 3mo; Truist cut 8/3
Watch
- The previously recorded band sat ABOVE spot and was wrong — set against a stale fair value, it made three consecutive scans log this as "still below its add zone" while the stock sat inside buy range; see [[pitfall-stale-entry-zone-suppresses-a-name]]. FV $380-470 (mid $425, +19-47%). The −68% peak-to-trough was a narrative de-rate, not an earnings one: FY26 total guidance was raised three times during the fall (rev +13-14%, non-GAAP EPS +18%); Q1/Q2/Q3 all beat; the only cut was the TurboTax line, ~$40M — which cost ~$21B of market cap. 🔍 The key finding: the 2026 share loss was a PRICE attack, not an AI attack. Units went to FreeTaxUSA ($0 fed/$15.99 state) and Cash App Taxes ($0) — neither AI-native, both years old — in the very season IRS Direct File was killed, i.e. Intuit got the policy win it lobbied for and still lost the low end. Meanwhile TurboTax Live grew +36% rev, +38% customers, +11% ARPU (now ~53% of TurboTax revenue) — the exact segment an LLM should have gutted. Goldman's $0.12-vs-$162 math breaks twice: the numerator is a blended figure loaded with human-assisted revenue (DIY list is $69-129), and the denominator ignores 41 state engines, annual IRS ATS re-certification, a 45-day EFIN suitability check, and the reserve behind a 7-year accuracy guarantee. Perplexity's tax agent cannot legally e-file at all.
- DYT is VOID here — the 2.27x yield-vs-history is entirely price-caused (price alone predicts 2.86x); see
pitfall-dyt-inverts-when-price-caused-the-yield. Hold all, optional ≤⅓ add, reserve the bulk.**
🆕 8/04 首次完整分析 —— 有史以来第一份文件，也是第一次给出信心评分 [7.0]，评级「累积买入」。 ⚠️ 原先记录的「买入 $370-390」高于现价，是错的 —— 它是按一个已经过时的合理价值设定的，导致连续三次扫描都把这只股票记录为「仍然低于其买入区间」，而实际上它就在买入区间之内。已更正：买入区间 $300-345，强烈买入 <$280。 合理价值 $380-470（中值 $425，+19-47%）。从高点回撤 68% 是叙事层面的重新估值，不是盈利层面的： 在股价下跌期间，2026 财年整体指引被上调了三次（营收 +13-14%，非公认会计准则每股收益 +18%）；第一、二、三季度全部超预期；唯一被下调的是 TurboTax 那一行，约 $40M —— 却让市值蒸发了约 $21B。 🔍 关键发现：2026 年的份额流失是价格战，不是 AI 冲击。 流失的用户去了 FreeTaxUSA（联邦 $0／州 $15.99）和 Cash App Taxes（$0） —— 两家都不是 AI 原生，都已存在多年 —— 而且恰恰发生在美国国税局 Direct File 被取消的那个报税季，也就是说 Intuit 拿到了自己游说争取的政策结果，却仍然丢掉了低端市场。与此同时 TurboTax Live 收入 +36%，客户 +38%，客单价 +11%（现已占 TurboTax 收入约 53%）—— 而这恰恰是大语言模型理论上最该摧毁的那一块。高盛的 $0.12 对 $162 这个算法两头都站不住：分子是一个混合数字，里面掺了大量人工辅助服务收入（纯自助报税标价是 $69-129），分母则忽略了41 套州级申报引擎、每年一次的国税局 ATS 重新认证、长达 45 天的 EFIN 资格审查，以及支撑 7 年准确性保证的准备金。 Perplexity 的报税智能体根本无法合法电子申报。 ✅ 护城河在 QuickBooks，不在 TurboTax：200,000+ ProAdvisor 认证顾问对比 Xero 的约 30,000；占美国在线小微企业市场约 80%；Xero 花了最高 $3B 收购 Melio，北美收入占比仍只有约 7%。 QBO 会计业务 +22%，Intuit Enterprise Suite +38%，GBS 指引上调至约 16%。✅ 营收 3 年复合增速 14.0%，净利润复合增速 23.3%，自由现金流复合增速 18.5%，营业利润率 3 年 +610 个基点，负债/资产 18%，有形账面价值为正，非公认会计准则只高出 15.4%（对比 ADBE 的 +35.9%）。✅ 股息：1.52% 收益率，连续 15 年上调，5 年复合增速 15.3%，自由现金流派息率约 25% —— 覆盖倍数 4 倍。 ✅ 3/16 终止全部 10b5-1 计划 + 回购翻倍（2026 财年约回购 6% 的股本）。 🚩 ROIC 仅约 15%，而 ADBE 约为 39% —— 商誉 $13.98B（占股东权益 71%）；护城河是买来的，不是自己建的。 这把合理倍数封在 18-21x 自由现金流，而不是 25x 以上。🚩 Mailchimp 拖累 GBS 增速 2-3 个百分点，是整份文件里最差的资产。🚩 低端市场的定价保护伞已永久消失；Stifel 预测 TurboTax 增速 4-6%，而管理层目标是 6-10%。🚩 创始人 Cook 在 2025 年 12 月卖出约 $276M，正好是崩盘前一个月（属于 10b5-1 计划，并非事先知情，但这件事就摆在集体诉讼背后）；唯一真正的公开市场买入只有一位董事，$541k。🚩 空头占股本 5.78%，环比 +28.6%；Fundsmith 已清仓；买入评级占比 3 个月内从 82% 降到 69%；Truist 在 8/3 下调评级。⚠️ 股息收益率理论（DYT）在这里无效 —— 收益率相对自身历史 2.27 倍完全是价格造成的（单靠价格下跌就应推导出 2.86 倍）。两个账户均持有：合计 5.356 股，混合成本 $334.75 —— 基本处于盈亏平衡，完全不是「下跌 60%」这个标题所暗示的灾难。 减持 17x 前瞻市盈率。 ⏳ 8/25 财报 = 2026 财年业绩 + 首次 2027 财年指引 + 年度股息上调，全部在同一份公告里。还有 21 天。全部持有，可选择性加仓不超过三分之一，主力弹药留到财报之后。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 22%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +10%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 1.51%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
QuickBooks is the record of a small business's finances, and the outside accountant is trained on it. Once the data and the bank feeds live there, moving off is disruptive and rarely done.QuickBooks是一家小企业财务的记录本，而外部会计师也是在它上面受训的。数据和银行对接一旦落在里面，搬走既费事又很少有人去做。
Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天
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