AI & Infrastructure CapexAI 与基础设施资本开支
Vistra Corp.
VST 6.8Price and target zones价格与目标区间
In the buy zone在买入区间内
What the company does公司做什么
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure.
The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities.
In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities.
It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1882
- Employees员工人数
- 6,390
- Industry行业
- Utilities - Independent Power Producers
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
⭐ FIRST ANALYSIS 9/10 — ACCUMULATE, in-zone. Largest US merchant IPP (nuclear + gas + solar/storage + ~5M-customer retail); nominated by the 9/10 nuclear re-sweep as the contracted-cash-flow / generation layer the book didn't own (main holds only SMR + LEU). The thesis: irreplaceable nuclear licenses now under 20yr hyperscaler PPAs (Meta 2,609MW + AWS 1,200MW), existing gas worth more than replacement while turbine backlogs run to 2030, and a −14%-since-2022 buyback.
What's working
- Fitch upgraded to Investment Grade; net debt/adj EBITDA ~2.9x; adj-FCF-before-growth yield ~8-9%; CEO bought open-market at the ~$135 Aug low; sell-side mean $217 (+48%), raising targets into the pullback
Watch
- Narrow moat (4.5/10), cyclical (evergreen 3.5) — the AI-power growth is <9% of the fleet by contracted MW, FCF fell 3 straight years into a capex ramp, and ERCOT 2027 softening + the Texas data-center interconnect pause are live headwinds. Cogentrix (~5,500MW gas, $4B, FERC-cleared, closes late-2026) diversifies but adds leverage + 5M shares. Cheaper than CEG for a reason, but genuinely cheap vs its own base case. FV $155-215 (base ~$185). Entry $130-155, strong buy <$130. Trim ~$235 (dollar-form deliberately — GAAP trailing P/E is hedge-distorted, a "NNx fwd" trim would invert on the broken vendor field; ≈11-12x EV/EBITDA on 2027E / ~22x FY27 EPS = where the discount to CEG has closed). Size as a real 2-4% position, not a lottery ticket — this is a $49B IG name, not a spec
首次分析 9/10——增持，处于区间内。 美国最大的商用独立发电商（核电 + 天然气 + 太阳能/储能 + 约 500 万零售客户）；由 9/10 核能重扫提名为投资组合此前缺失的合约现金流/发电层（主账户仅持有 SMR 与 LEU）。 核心逻辑：不可复制的核电许可证如今锁定于 20 年期超大规模数据中心购电协议（Meta 2,609MW + AWS 1,200MW），现有燃气资产在燃机订单排至 2030 年之际价值高于重置成本，且自 2022 年以来回购使股数减少约 14%。 ✅ Fitch 上调至投资级；净债务/调整后 EBITDA 约 2.9x；调整后（增长前）自由现金流收益率约 8-9%；CEO 在 8 月约 $135 的低点公开市场买入；卖方目标均值 $217（+48%），在回调中上调目标价。 ⚠️ 护城河狭窄（4.5/10）、周期性（长青 3.5）——AI 电力增长仅占机队合约兆瓦的不到 9%，自由现金流在资本开支爬坡中连续三年下降，且 ERCOT 2027 价格走软 + 得州数据中心并网暂停是现实的逆风。 Cogentrix（约 5,500MW 燃气，$40 亿，已获 FERC 批准，2026 年底前完成）带来多元化但增加杠杆 + 500 万股。 比 CEG 便宜是有原因的，但相对其自身基准情形确实便宜。 FV $155-215（基准约 $185）。 入场 $130-155，强力买入 <$130。 减持约 $235（刻意用美元形式——GAAP 滚动市盈率被对冲扭曲，“NNx 前瞻”式减持会因供应商字段失真而倒挂；约为 2027 年预测 EBITDA 的 11-12x / FY27 EPS 的约 22x = 相对 CEG 折价收敛的水平）。 作为真实的 2-4% 仓位，而非彩票——这是一家 $490 亿的投资级公司，不是投机股。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 43%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- -6%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 0.66%
Competitive advantages竞争优势 from the thesis and the reports来自投资逻辑和报告
- The thesis: irreplaceable nuclear licenses now under 20yr hyperscaler PPAs (Meta 2,609MW + AWS 1,200MW) , existing gas worth more than replacement while turbine backlogs run to 2030, and a −14%-since-2022 buyback .
- ⚠️ Narrow moat (4.5/10), cyclical (evergreen 3.5) — the AI-power growth is <9% of the fleet by contracted MW, FCF fell 3 straight years into a capex ramp, and ERCOT 2027 softening + the Texas data-center interconnect pause are live headwinds.
- Three things drive the 2026 thesis: (1) irreplaceable nuclear baseload now under 20yr hyperscaler PPAs, (2) existing gas capacity worth more than replacement cost while turbine backlogs run to 2030, and (3) a buyback machine that has cut the share count ~14% since 2022. 1.
- Moat — narrow (4.5/10), evergreen weak (3.5/10) Merchant power is the hardest place in public markets to hold a moat: the product is undifferentiated electrons priced by a regional auction VST doesn't control.
- The integrated retail+generation model is a volatility-reducer, not a moat (the same "long contract book is a beta-reducer, not a moat" mechanism the KB logged on Cameco — a discount-rate input, not a multiple input).
Related companies相关公司 🟡 Nuclear / uranium
Uranium spot + DOE/regulatory policy. LEU and CCJ share the same DOE/Russian-sanctions axis — CCJ would concentrate, not diversify.
Combined speculative sizing; VST sized separately as a non-spec IG name.