Analog Devices, Inc.
ADI 7Price and target zones价格与目标区间
Near the buy zone接近买入区间
What the company does公司做什么
Analog Devices makes the chips that connect the physical world to a computer. A sensor produces a small changing voltage; an ADI chip turns it into numbers a processor can use. These parts are cheap, they last for decades, and a customer rarely changes them.Analog Devices制造把现实世界连接到计算机的芯片。一个传感器产生一个微小变化的电压，ADI的芯片把它变成处理器能用的数字。这些零件很便宜，能用几十年，客户很少更换它们。
Earns from营收来源 sales of many thousands of separate part numbers to tens of thousands of customers. No single customer is large.来自把成千上万种不同型号的零件，卖给数以万计的客户。没有哪一个客户是大客户。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
Analog Devices, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, testing, and marketing of integrated circuits (ICs), software, and subsystems products in the United States, rest of North and South America, Europe, Japan, China, and rest of Asia. It provides data converter products, which translate real-world analog signals into digital data, as well as translates digital data into analog signals; power management and reference products for power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing, and energy management applications in the automotive, communications, industrial, and consumer markets; and power ICs that include performance, integration, and software design simulation tools for accurate power supply designs. The company also offers amplifiers to condition analog signals; and radio frequency and microwave ICs to support cellular infrastructure; and micro-electro-mechanical systems technology solutions, including accelerometers used to sense acceleration, gyroscopes for sense rotation, inertial measurement units to sense multiple degrees of freedom, and broadband switches for radio and instrument systems, as well as isolators. In addition, it provides digital signal processing and system products for numeric calculations. The company serves clients in the industrial, automotive, consumer, instrumentation, aerospace, defense and healthcare, and communications markets through a direct sales force, third-party distributors, and independent sales representatives, as well as online. The company was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
What the company sells公司卖什么
The largest market. Factory automation, instruments, test equipment and aerospace. Design cycles are long and product lifetimes run for ten years or more.最大的市场。工厂自动化、仪器、测试设备和航空航天。设计周期很长，产品寿命长达十年以上。
- Data converters数据转换器
- Turn a voltage into a number, and a number back into a voltage. ADI leads this market.把电压变成数字，再把数字变回电压。ADI 在这个市场上领先。
- Power management电源管理
- Supplies clean, steady power to sensitive circuits.为敏感电路提供干净、稳定的电力。
Plus:此外： Automotive汽车 — Battery management for electric cars, and audio and sensor networks inside the cabin电动汽车的电池管理，以及车厢内的音频和传感器网络; Communications and Consumer通信和消费电子 — Radio and signal chips for network equipment, and audio parts for consumer devices网络设备用的射频和信号芯片，以及消费设备用的音频部件.
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1965
- Headquarters总部
- Wilmington, Massachusetts
- Employees员工人数
- 24,500
- Industry行业
- Semiconductors
- Country国家
- United States
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
What's working
- The moat survived adversarial stress-testing and two bear claims broke on primary sources. "GM never recovered post-M&A" is a purchase-accounting artifact — FY2018 GAAP GM was 68.3% with Linear amortization running, 320bps above standalone FY2016; like-for-like adjusted GM went ~65% → 69.3% → 73.0%. And "ADI's moat is weakest in gluts" was falsified by the 2023-25 downcycle that already ran: ADI GM −250bps and FCF +13.3%, vs TI GM −1,180bps and FCF −56.1%. ADI now runs 450bps above TI on GAAP GM
- The income case is the real differentiator: 22-year streak, raises every February without a miss, latest +11.1% (above the 9.5% 10yr avg — re-accelerating), 44% FCF payout, covered 2.1x.** Survived the FY2024 trough at 58% FCF payout
- Fortress: 18.05% D/A, 1.25x ND/EBITDA, 9.2x coverage, laddered to 2054, notes trade $700M below par
- No hidden capacity commitments — 10-K verified, capex/dep 1.31x (vs NXPI's 0.65x). Zero platform M&A FY22-24; R&D raised through the trough to a record 16.0% of revenue
Red flags
- But reported ROIC 6.14% is below WACC; ex-goodwill 18.9% was 36-39% pre-Maxim — the deal halved return on capital. Goodwill 56% of assets / 80% of equity; tangible book −$2.35/sh
- Organic revenue CAGR ~4.4%/9yr; revenue/share only +5.39%/8yr.
- 2022 Investor Day scorecard: missed 4 of 5 — revenue CAGR promised 7-10%, delivered −2.84%; no investor day since, and management still quotes the fragments it hit. "$20B by 2030" is a capacity statement, not guidance
- Growth is ~66% industrial bounce off a 3-yr trough, ~20% datacenter; automotive +2% yoy = flat; ~2pts of 2026 growth is price not volume
- ~$104M insider selling, $0 open-market buying in 24 months; CEO's $24.4M block was discretionary (10b5-1 box unchecked), 6x his normal cadence, 6 days after the record print
- Buyback per-share tailwind is −0.92%/yr, not 1.7pp (headline includes $118M tax withholding)
- New $3.0B 364-day revolver with term-out option (8-K 7/2) — classic M&A-bridge structure nobody needed. FV $255-305 (mid $280); downside ~$230 (52wk low $218.37 corroborates). Add <$290, strong <$255, trim >$320
Watch
- Analyzed 7/29 — quality confirmed, price not. Business 8/10, entry 3/10.
- Gate: 8/19 Q3 print — >$1.0B program buyback sub-$360 = upgrade; flat ~$650M = buys mechanically regardless of price
🔴 比 $280 的合理价值中值高约 35%。等 8/19 财报（原本需要在 $360 以下看到 >$1.0B 的计划内回购 —— 在 $377 这个条件已无意义）。低于 $290 加仓，低于 $255 重仓。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 10%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +37%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 1.20%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
An engineer designs an ADI part into a product that then sells for ten years. Changing the part means testing the whole design again for a saving of a few cents. Almost nobody does it, so revenue per design is very durable.一名工程师把某个ADI零件设计进一款产品，这款产品接下来会卖上十年。换掉这个零件就意味着要把整个设计重新测试一遍，而省下来的只有几分钱。几乎没人会这么做，所以每一次设计带来的收入都非常持久。