Financebotresearch desk研究台

Evergreen Compounders长期复利公司

Shopify Inc.

SHOP 7

Software - Application · 184.6B market cap · site

Price and target zones价格与目标区间

$142.24
$115–140 entry买入$185+ full value估值上限 · 125× ttm52wk52周 $94–$182-22% off the high距高点

What the company does公司做什么

Shopify makes the software that lets a person or a business build and run its own online store. A shop owner uses Shopify to list products, take orders, and manage shipping. Shopify does not sell products itself — it rents the store's engine to millions of merchants around the world. It earns money in two ways: a monthly fee, and a small cut of what merchants sell.Shopify制作让个人或企业能搭建和经营自己网上商店的软件。一个店主用Shopify来上架商品、接收订单和管理发货。Shopify自己不卖商品——它把店铺的引擎租给全世界数以百万计的商家。它靠两种方式赚钱:一笔月费,加上商家销售额的一小份抽成。

Earns from营收来源 merchants pay a recurring monthly fee to use the platform, and Shopify also takes a small fee on the payments, shipping, and loans it handles for each sale a merchant makes.商家支付反复收取的月费来使用这个平台,同时Shopify还会在它为商家每一笔销售处理的付款、发货和贷款上收取一小笔费用。

Read the full description查看完整介绍

Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It also provides Shopify Payments, a fully integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept and process payment cards online and offline. In addition, the company engages in the sale of themes and apps; shipping labels through Shopify Shipping; point-of-sale hardware; advertising on the Shopify App Store; and Shop Campaigns for buyer acquisitions, as well as registration of domain names. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.

Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比

76%Merchant Solutions商家解决方案
24%Subscription Solutions订阅解决方案
Pick a slice for detail点击某一部分查看详情
Merchant Solutions商家解决方案76% · ~$8.8B

Shopify earns this revenue every time a merchant makes a sale, mainly through a small cut of payment processing plus fees on merchant cash advances and shipping labels. Unlike the subscription fee, this revenue rises and falls with the total value of goods sold through Shopify's merchants. It has grown faster than subscriptions and now makes up most of Shopify's revenue, so Shopify's results track the health of its merchants' sales. This ties Shopify's own growth directly to overall e-commerce spending trends.Shopify在商家每完成一笔销售时赚取这部分收入,主要来自支付处理的小额抽成,以及商家现金贷款和运费标签产生的费用。与订阅费不同,这部分收入会随着通过Shopify商家售出商品的总值起伏。其增长速度快于订阅业务,目前已占Shopify收入的大部分,因此Shopify的业绩与商家的销售状况紧密相连。这也使Shopify自身的增长直接与整体电商消费趋势挂钩。

  • Shopify Payments — the built-in way for a store to accept credit cards, so the merchant needs no separate payment company.店铺接受信用卡的内置方式,这样商家就不需要另找一家支付公司。
  • Shopify Capital — cash advances and loans Shopify gives to merchants, repaid automatically out of future sales.Shopify 向商家提供的现金预支和贷款,从未来的销售中自动扣还。
  • Shopify Shipping — cheaper shipping labels a merchant buys through Shopify instead of shopping around for a carrier.商家通过 Shopify 购买的更便宜的快递面单,而不用自己四处比较承运商。
Subscription Solutions订阅解决方案24% · ~$2.8B

Shopify charges each merchant a recurring monthly fee to keep their online store running. The fee also covers point-of-sale hardware for in-person sales and a share of purchases made through the app and theme marketplace. This revenue does not depend on how much a merchant actually sells, so it gives Shopify a predictable, recurring base of cash flow. It grows mainly through new merchant sign-ups and upgrades to higher-priced plans.Shopify向每位商家收取经常性月费,以维持其在线商店的运营。这笔费用还包括用于线下销售的销售点(POS)硬件,以及应用和主题市场中购买产生的分成。这部分收入不取决于商家实际卖出多少商品,因此为Shopify提供了可预测的经常性现金流基础。其增长主要来自新商家注册以及现有商家升级到更高价套餐。

  • Shopify plansShopify 套餐 — monthly plans (Basic, Shopify, Advanced, Plus) that unlock more tools and lower payment fees as a store grows.按月付费的套餐(Basic、Shopify、Advanced、Plus),随着店铺成长解锁更多工具、降低支付费率。
  • Shopify POS — software and hardware that lets a merchant sell in a physical shop and keep online and in-store stock in step.让商家在实体店销售、并保持线上和店内库存同步的软件和硬件。
  • App Store and themes应用商店与主题 — a marketplace of add-on tools and store designs; Shopify keeps a share of each sale made through it.一个附加工具和店铺设计的市场;每一笔通过它成交的销售,Shopify 都会抽取一部分。

Company facts公司资料

Founded成立时间
2004
Employees员工人数
7,600
Industry行业
Software - Application
Country国家
Canada

Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表

📋 Re-analyzed 8/27 — WATCH, conviction 7.5→7.0 (business held, price ran past it). Q2 resolved the baseline's decel fear bullishly — revenue +34%, GMV +32% (guided "high 20s"), Q3 guided "low-thirties"; buybacks escalated (H1 $1.91B > all of FY25). Moat strengthened (payments penetration 68%, Shop Pay GMV +53%).

Watch

  • But the multiple re-rated ~45% (EV/fwd-rev 8.8x→12.8x) — spot now above the re-derived base case. The baseline's own May forward-P/E was built on a non-reconciling EPS figure. FV $100-197 (base ~$135-145). Entry $115-140 (strong buy <$115). Trim 125x ttm (~$189)

8/27 重新分析——WATCH,信念 7.5→7.0(基本面稳,价格跑过头)。 Q2 以看多方式化解了减速担忧——营收 +34%、GMV +32%(原指引"高 20 多"),Q3 指引"低 30 多";回购加码(上半年 $1.91B 超全 FY25)。 护城河增强(支付渗透 68%,Shop Pay GMV +53%)。 🔴 但估值重估约 45%(EV/前瞻营收 8.8x→12.8x)——现价已高于重算的基准情形。 基线五月的前瞻 P/E 建立在对不上的 EPS 上。 FV $100-197。 入场 $115-140(强力 <$115),减持 125x ttm。

Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动

Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例

Gross profit毛利润
48%
Operating profit营业利润
18%
Net profit净利润
15%

of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比

Return on equity净资产收益率
16%
Revenue growth营收增长
+34%

Competitors竞争对手

AmazonWooCommerceSquarespaceAdobe Commerce (Magento)BigCommerce

Why customers stay客户为什么留下

as a merchant's sales grow, its payment and lending fees to Shopify grow with it, and a large library of outside apps keeps merchants tied to the platform, so switching to a rival is costly and slow.随着一个商家销售额的增长,它付给Shopify的付款和贷款费用也跟着增长;而且庞大的外部应用库把商家牢牢拴在平台上,所以换到对手那里既费钱又慢。

Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天

Sources来源