AZN
AZN 7Price and target zones价格与目标区间
What the company does公司做什么
No company description is on file. Run python .mcp/profiles.py to get one.
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
⏳ ANALYZED 8/05. Large-cap pharma, 2.05% yield, 81.9% GM, ROIC 5.5%→14.0% in 3yrs, zero dilution 4yrs, net debt/EBITDA 1.18x. Q2 beat (core EPS $2.63 +18% CER), FY26 guide + $80B-2030 target reaffirmed while absorbing US Farxiga LOE and China −13%. Oncology +15%, rare disease +8%. R&D $14.23B = 24.2% of revenue, 30 approvals since Q4'25, >20 readouts in 18mo — the pipeline is the moat, because in pharma the patent clock is the only disruption and it is 100% scheduled.
What's working
- ADR pitfall retired: ADS terminated 1/27/26, ordinary shares direct-listed NYSE 2/2/26, reports in USD → P/B, DYT and the yield band are all valid, verified against aggregates
Red flags
- Core-vs-GAAP gap 39% (Q2 reported EPS −2% vs core +18%); GAAP ~22x
- FCF yield 3.46%, capex +130% in 3yrs
- Tagrisso cliff ~2028-32; camizestrant negative adcom + delayed decision; China VBP + Leon Wang probe. Dividend covered 1.7x by FCF but grows only ~3%/yr while capex runs hot — this is a 2% yield with modest growth, not an income asset. FV $150-190 (central $168) vs $213.69 street. Add $140-152. Trim 19x fwd. Beta 0.21.
Watch
- Yahoo
PE(fwd) 13.95is FY2027; true fwd is 15.8x core
🟢 2026-08-05 分析 —— 首份文件。观察；$150 时转为逐步买入。 填补医疗健康缺口的优质答案。三年内 ROIC 由 5.5% 升至 14.0%，毛利率 81.9%，四年零稀释，净负债/EBITDA 1.18x 且持续去杠杆，股息刚刚上调（中期股息 $1.03 → $1.06）。第二季度超预期：核心每股收益 $2.63（按固定汇率 +18%），高于市场预期的 $2.48；收入 $15.38B（+5%）；2026 财年指引与 2030 年 $80B 目标双双重申 —— 而且是在同时消化美国 Farxiga 专利到期与中国 −13% 的情况下。肿瘤 +15%，罕见病 +8%，已经在抵消专利悬崖。研发 $14.23B，占收入 24.2%，自 2025 年第四季度以来获批 30 项，未来 18 个月有 20 项以上高价值数据读出 —— 补充管线的引擎才是真正的护城河。✅ 数据说明：ADR 陷阱不适用。 ADS 计划已于 2026-01-27 终止，普通股于 2026-02-02 在纽交所直接上市；1 股纽交所股票 = 1 股普通股，以美元报表，Yahoo 已按 0.5 拆股 正确重述历史。市净率、股息率理论与 5 年股息率区间全部有效 —— 已与合计数交叉验证。⚠️ Yahoo 的 前瞻市盈率 13.95 用的是 2027 财年 —— 2026 财年真实前瞻为 核心口径 15.8x（每股 $10.20；FY25 核心 $9.16）。🚩 核心与 GAAP 口径的差距扩大到核心的 39% —— 第二季度报告口径每股收益下降 2%，而核心口径上升 18%；按 GAAP 约为 22x。🚩 自由现金流收益率仅 3.46%，资本开支三年 +130%（$2.57B → $5.91B）。🚩 Tagrisso（>$6.5B）是真正的悬崖，约在 2028-32 年；中国带量采购是结构性的，且王磊合规调查尚未了结；camizestrant 获得了 FDA 顾问委员会的否定票并被推迟决定。⚖️ 三种方法都指向合理而非便宜：股息率理论 $158（信号干净 —— 当前 2.05% vs 5 年均值 2.09%）、现金流口径 $140-161、核心倍数 $163-180。合理价值 $150-190（中枢 $168）—— 我显著低于卖方 $213.69 的均值，原因就是那个加回差距。贝塔 0.21 —— 对于一个偏软件与半导体的组合是真正的分散化。减持 19x 前瞻。
Competitive advantages竞争优势 from the thesis and the reports来自投资逻辑和报告
- R&D $14.23B = 24.2% of revenue , 30 approvals since Q4'25, 20 readouts in 18mo — the pipeline is the moat, because in pharma the patent clock is the only disruption and it is 100% scheduled.
- By the §2 test — rising/stable high ROIC = a real moat throwing off returns — this is the textbook positive case, and it is the exact mirror image of what ZTS is doing.
- Moat sources, named Source Strength Note --- --- --- Intangibles (patents) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ but time-limited by construction The core asset.
- This is the true durable moat: the ability to keep replacing the patents.
- Switching costs / network effects ⭐ Essentially none.
Related companies相关公司 🟠 Pharma patent-cliff (new 8/05)
Not "healthcare" — one failure mode: an expiring monopoly against a pipeline that has to replace it in time.
Own ONE of AZN/BMY, not both — they are the same trade with opposite risk profiles. AZN is the better business, BMY the better price; on the evidence AZN wins.