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NXP Semiconductors N.V.

NXPI 5

Semiconductors · 59.5B market cap · site

Price and target zones价格与目标区间

Near the buy zone接近买入区间

$236.00
below低于 $170–200 entry买入52wk52周 $183–$340-31% off the high距高点

What the company does公司做什么

NXP designs chips for cars and for industrial and embedded systems — the processors, sensors, and connectivity that run a car's electronics or a factory machine. It is one of the leaders in automotive chips.NXP 为汽车以及工业和嵌入式系统设计芯片——那些运行汽车电子或工厂机器的处理器、传感器和联网芯片。它是汽车芯片领域的领头羊之一。

Earns from营收来源 chip sales, organised by the market the chip goes into.芯片销售,按芯片最终用于哪个市场来划分。

Read the full description查看完整介绍

NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, Thread, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface products; radio frequency devices, and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to direct sales offices and independent distributors. NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.

Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比

58%Automotive汽车
19%Industrial and IoT工业与物联网
13%Mobile移动设备
11%Communication Infrastructure and other通信基础设施及其他
Pick a slice for detail点击某一部分查看详情
Automotive汽车58% · $7.1B

NXP's automotive business supplies the processors, radar sensors, in-car networking chips, and secure keyless-entry chips that run a modern vehicle's electronics. It is by far NXP's largest business, and because automakers design a chip into a car years before production and must re-certify any change, a win tends to lock in years of steady revenue.恩智浦的汽车业务提供处理器、雷达传感器、车内网络芯片和安全无钥匙进入芯片,用于运行现代汽车的电子系统。这是恩智浦迄今为止最大的业务,由于汽车制造商在量产前数年就将芯片设计进车型,且更换供应商需要重新认证,一旦中标往往能锁定多年的稳定收入。

Industrial and IoT工业与物联网19% · $2.3B

This business supplies edge processors and wireless connectivity chips that let factory machines, appliances, and smart-building equipment sense and process data locally instead of relying on the cloud. It is NXP's fastest-growing end market, riding the broader push to automate factories and add intelligence to everyday equipment.该业务提供边缘处理器和无线连接芯片,使工厂机器、家电和智能楼宇设备能够就地感知和处理数据,而无需依赖云端。这是恩智浦增长最快的终端市场,受益于工厂自动化和为日常设备添加智能这一更广泛的趋势。

Mobile移动设备13% · $1.6B

NXP supplies the secure chips inside phones and wearables that handle contactless payments, digital car keys, and precise short-range location tracking. Demand here tracks how widely device makers roll out tap-to-pay and ultra-wideband location features in new models.恩智浦为手机和可穿戴设备提供安全芯片,用于处理非接触式支付、数字车钥匙和精确的近距离位置追踪。该业务的需求取决于设备制造商在新机型中普及触碰支付和超宽带定位功能的程度。

Communication Infrastructure and other通信基础设施及其他11% · $1.3B

This segment sells radio-frequency chips used inside 5G cellular base stations, along with secure identity chips embedded in passports, ID cards, and bank cards. It is NXP's smallest end market, and its revenue rises and falls with telecom carriers' network-buildout spending.该分部销售用于5G蜂窝基站内部的射频芯片,以及嵌入护照、身份证和银行卡中的安全身份芯片。这是恩智浦最小的终端市场,其收入随电信运营商的网络建设支出而波动。

Company facts公司资料

Founded成立时间
2006
Headquarters总部
Eindhoven, the Netherlands
Employees员工人数
32,169
Industry行业
Semiconductors
Country国家
Netherlands

Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表

What's working

  • Genuinely different: pricing inflected to neutral-positive (2 hikes in 2026), RF Power/MEMS drags amputated, data-center control plane ~$200M→>$500M, GM band raised 55-58%→57-63%, ~200bp structural gain due 2028
  • China is 17% of revenue and grew +25.5% yoy — the design-out thesis is not visible in the numbers (real on a 2027 policy calendar; ~5-8% of revenue contestable over 5-7yrs)

Red flags

  • 8yr FCF CAGR +2.8% (SEC XBRL FY2017-25), cycle-neutral +4.0% — FCF range-bound $1.7-2.7B for a decade. Reverse-DCF: $241 requires 7.6% at r=9% — 2-3x demonstrated
  • The per-share engine has stopped: share count rose 253.5M→254.0M q/q; $104M/qtr buyback ≈ $105M/qtr SBC. Historical FCF/share grew 6.8%/yr vs 2.8% corporate — that entire 4pp gap was retirement. Dividend frozen ~10 quarters at a 38.6% FCF payout — a choice, not a coverage limit. Both per-share levers off in the same year.
  • Incremental ROIC −7.0% on the $4.2B added since FY2022 (+6.4% even annualizing the best quarter ever) — below WACC
  • Q2'26's "record" is only +1.8% above the Q3'23 peak set 11 quarters earlier; +5.7%/yr on a 2yr stack; ~62% of growth is cyclical volume
  • FCF margin has NOT recovered — ~$583M/yr of fab-JV equity is economically capex; adjusted margin ~16%, not 20.1%. Plus a $14.1B / 37-year take-or-pay at 80-90% minimum loading that converts variable cost to fixed
  • The channel cushion is gone: 2021-22 ran a full month below target; now at 11 weeks with DIO 156 vs a 95-day target
  • Management denied restocking in 2021 categorically ("not a single piece of inventory anywhere") and was wrong within 15 months, with no retrospective — the same denial is the load-bearing bull claim today

Watch

  • Analyzed 7/29. Downgraded [7]→[5] — the same-day compare note called this the best risk-adjusted name of ADI/NXPI/MCHP at a 10-12% expected return. That was wrong, and the error was mechanical: it annualized a cyclical recovery and inherited a buyback subsidy that has switched off. Real Bogle ER ≈6.5%
  • But XPeng's Turing chip won a Volkswagen contract — a Chinese compute vendor at a Western OEM attacks S32 directly. FV $200-235; price $240.98 = ~5-15% above. Add <$200, strong <$175, trim >$265
  • Gate: Q1'27 revenue — >$3,900M = 3yr stacked CAGR breaks 5%, inflection real; $3,600-3,700M = cyclical peak rolling over, same movie

Would upgrade on

  • Upgrade: buyback resuming >$300M/qtr.

🔴 合理价值 $200-235;现价处于上沿。 等 Q1'27 营收(>$3,900M = 真正的拐点;$3,600-3,700M = 同一部老电影)。 低于 $200 加仓。

Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动

Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例

Gross profit毛利润
56%
Operating profit营业利润
30%
Net profit净利润
23%

of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比

Return on equity净资产收益率
28%
Revenue growth营收增长
+20%
Dividend yield股息率
1.70%

Competitors竞争对手

InfineonRenesasSTMicroelectronicsTexas InstrumentsMicrochip

Why customers stay客户为什么留下

Car chips are designed into a vehicle years ahead and must pass long safety checks, so a customer rarely changes supplier — a real switching cost. But the moat protects share, not growth: revenue actually fell about 3% in FY2025, and rivals such as Infineon are gaining automotive share.汽车芯片会在整车上市前好几年就被设计进去,还必须通过漫长的安全检验,所以客户很少更换供应商——这是一道实实在在的转换成本。但这道护城河守得住份额,守不住增长:2025财年收入其实还下滑了约3%,而像 Infineon 这样的对手正在抢占汽车芯片份额。

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