NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI 5Price and target zones价格与目标区间
Near the buy zone接近买入区间
What the company does公司做什么
NXP designs chips for cars and for industrial and embedded systems — the processors, sensors, and connectivity that run a car's electronics or a factory machine. It is one of the leaders in automotive chips.NXP 为汽车以及工业和嵌入式系统设计芯片——那些运行汽车电子或工厂机器的处理器、传感器和联网芯片。它是汽车芯片领域的领头羊之一。
Earns from营收来源 chip sales, organised by the market the chip goes into.芯片销售，按芯片最终用于哪个市场来划分。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, Thread, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface products; radio frequency devices, and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to direct sales offices and independent distributors. NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
What the company sells公司卖什么
Plus:此外： Automotive汽车 (58%) — Processors, radar, in-car networking, and secure car-access chips. FY2025 revenue was $7.1 billion处理器、雷达、车内网络和安全车辆门禁芯片。FY2025 收入为 $7.1 billion; Industrial and IoT工业与物联网 (19%) — Edge processors and connectivity chips that add local intelligence to machines and appliances让机器和电器具备本地智能的边缘处理器和连接芯片; Mobile移动设备 (13%) — Secure payment and location chips for phones and wearables用于手机和可穿戴设备的安全支付和定位芯片; Communication Infrastructure and other通信基础设施及其他 (11%) — Radio chips for 5G base stations, and secure identity chips for passports and bank cards用于 5G 基站的无线电芯片，以及用于护照和银行卡的安全身份芯片.
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 2006
- Headquarters总部
- Eindhoven, the Netherlands
- Employees员工人数
- 32,169
- Industry行业
- Semiconductors
- Country国家
- Netherlands
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
What's working
- Genuinely different: pricing inflected to neutral-positive (2 hikes in 2026), RF Power/MEMS drags amputated, data-center control plane ~$200M→>$500M, GM band raised 55-58%→57-63%, ~200bp structural gain due 2028
- China is 17% of revenue and grew +25.5% yoy — the design-out thesis is not visible in the numbers (real on a 2027 policy calendar; ~5-8% of revenue contestable over 5-7yrs)
Red flags
- 8yr FCF CAGR +2.8% (SEC XBRL FY2017-25), cycle-neutral +4.0% — FCF range-bound $1.7-2.7B for a decade. Reverse-DCF: $241 requires 7.6% at r=9% — 2-3x demonstrated
- The per-share engine has stopped: share count rose 253.5M→254.0M q/q; $104M/qtr buyback ≈ $105M/qtr SBC. Historical FCF/share grew 6.8%/yr vs 2.8% corporate — that entire 4pp gap was retirement. Dividend frozen ~10 quarters at a 38.6% FCF payout — a choice, not a coverage limit. Both per-share levers off in the same year.
- Incremental ROIC −7.0% on the $4.2B added since FY2022 (+6.4% even annualizing the best quarter ever) — below WACC
- Q2'26's "record" is only +1.8% above the Q3'23 peak set 11 quarters earlier; +5.7%/yr on a 2yr stack; ~62% of growth is cyclical volume
- FCF margin has NOT recovered — ~$583M/yr of fab-JV equity is economically capex; adjusted margin ~16%, not 20.1%. Plus a $14.1B / 37-year take-or-pay at 80-90% minimum loading that converts variable cost to fixed
- The channel cushion is gone: 2021-22 ran a full month below target; now at 11 weeks with DIO 156 vs a 95-day target
- Management denied restocking in 2021 categorically ("not a single piece of inventory anywhere") and was wrong within 15 months, with no retrospective — the same denial is the load-bearing bull claim today
Watch
- Analyzed 7/29. Downgraded [7]→[5] — the same-day compare note called this the best risk-adjusted name of ADI/NXPI/MCHP at a 10-12% expected return. That was wrong, and the error was mechanical: it annualized a cyclical recovery and inherited a buyback subsidy that has switched off. Real Bogle ER ≈6.5%
- But XPeng's Turing chip won a Volkswagen contract — a Chinese compute vendor at a Western OEM attacks S32 directly. FV $200-235; price $240.98 = ~5-15% above. Add <$200, strong <$175, trim >$265
- Gate: Q1'27 revenue — >$3,900M = 3yr stacked CAGR breaks 5%, inflection real; $3,600-3,700M = cyclical peak rolling over, same movie
Would upgrade on
- Upgrade: buyback resuming >$300M/qtr.
🔴 合理价值 $200-235；现价处于上沿。等 Q1'27 营收（>$3,900M = 真正的拐点；$3,600-3,700M = 同一部老电影）。低于 $200 加仓。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 28%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +20%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 1.81%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
Car chips are designed into a vehicle years ahead and must pass long safety checks, so a customer rarely changes supplier — a real switching cost. But the moat protects share, not growth: revenue actually fell about 3% in FY2025, and rivals such as Infineon are gaining automotive share.汽车芯片会在整车上市前好几年就被设计进去，还必须通过漫长的安全检验，所以客户很少更换供应商——这是一道实实在在的转换成本。但这道护城河守得住份额，守不住增长：2025财年收入其实还下滑了约3%，而像 Infineon 这样的对手正在抢占汽车芯片份额。
Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天
- NXP in talks to buy chip developer Ambarella, FT reportsReuters
- Ambarella reportedly in talks to be acquired by NXP Semiconductors, shares spikeInvesting.com
- AMBA Stock Rockets 18% On NXP Buyout Talks For Self-Driving Chip MakerStocktwits
- NXPI Q2 Deep Dive: Broad-Based Revenue Growth and Strong Guidance Across All End MarketsStockStory
- NXPI Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Physical AI GrowthZacks
- NXP Semiconductors Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/YZacks