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Leidos Holdings, Inc.

LDOS 7.5

Information Technology Services · 15.3B market cap · site

Price and target zones价格与目标区间

In the buy zone在买入区间内

$122.28
$111–131 entry买入$166.72+ full value估值上限 · 13.5× fwd × $12.3552wk52周 $99–$206-41% off the high距高点

What the company does公司做什么

Leidos is a US company that builds and runs computer systems for the government. Its main customers are the US military, US spy agencies, and health agencies. It does not sell off-the-shelf products. Instead, it wins long contracts, often for many years, to build, run, and guard large computer systems for these customers.Leidos是一家为政府建设和运行计算机系统的美国公司。它的主要客户是美国军方、美国情报机构和卫生机构。它不卖现成的产品,而是靠赢得长期合同——往往一签就是很多年——来为这些客户建设、运行和守卫大型计算机系统。

Earns from营收来源 the government signs a multi-year contract, then pays Leidos on a regular schedule as it builds, runs, or protects a computer system.政府签一份多年合同,然后在Leidos建设、运行或保护一套计算机系统的过程中按固定时间表付款。

Read the full description查看完整介绍

Leidos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions for government and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The National Security & Digital segment provides national security software; services by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to coordinate sea, ground, air, and space to help warfighters; offensive, defensive, and physical cyber operation solutions; intelligence analysis, operational support, logistics operations, security, linguistics, force production, biometrics, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives, energetics, training, and other services; and Digital Modernization and transformation services. The Health & Civil segment offers air traffic control systems; health mission software; managed health services; infrastructure management and operation; logistical operations and information technology support; and life science research and development support services. The Commercial & International segment provides power grid engineering and design, grid modernization, utility planning and consulting, energy management and efficiency, technology-driven innovation, and software and application development; people scanners, computed tomography carry-on baggage scanners, checked baggage scanners, and explosive trace detectors; mobile, non-intrusive ports and borders inspection systems; and open-architecture platform that transforms airport security by integrating disparate devices and technologies into a unified management system. The Defense Systems segment offers air and missile defense, maritime, aerospace, and cyber and threat systems; offers airborne training, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions; and provides space-based electro-optic infrared systems, multi/hyperspectral, electronic warfare and signals intelligence, and communications payloads. Leidos Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比

44%National Security & Digital国家安全与数字
30%Health & Civil健康与民政
13%Commercial & International商业与国际
13%Defense Systems国防系统
Pick a slice for detail点击某一部分查看详情
National Security & Digital国家安全与数字44% · $7.6B

Leidos' largest segment. It builds and guards the computer systems and networks that US intelligence agencies and the military use every day, and it moves old government systems onto the cloud. Demand tracks government spending on cyber defense and modern IT. Long, multi-year contracts and required security clearances make it hard for a rival to take this work away.利多斯最大的部门。它为美国情报机构和军方建造并保护每天使用的计算机系统和网络,并把旧的政府系统迁移到云端。需求跟随政府在网络防御和现代化信息技术方面的支出而变化。多年期的长期合同和所需的安全许可,使竞争对手很难抢走这部分业务。

  • Cybersecurity and secure networks网络安全与安全网络 — Leidos builds digital locks and alarms for government computers, so outside attackers cannot steal secret data.Leidos 为政府计算机打造数字锁和警报,让外部攻击者无法窃取机密数据。
  • Cloud computing services云计算服务 — Leidos moves old government computer systems onto shared, internet-based systems (called "the cloud"), so agencies work faster and pay less to store data.Leidos 把老旧的政府计算机系统迁移到共享的、基于互联网的系统(称为“云”)上,让各机构工作更快、存储数据花费更少。
Health & Civil健康与民政30% · $5.1B

This segment runs computer systems for health agencies and everyday civilian government bodies. It manages patient and veteran health records, guides air traffic, and operates the scanners that check travelers and cargo at US borders. This work is steady and does not depend on defense budget cycles, so it gives Leidos a stable base of revenue.该部门为卫生机构和日常民用政府机构运行计算机系统。它管理病人和退伍军人的健康记录,引导空中交通,并运营检查旅客和货物的美国边境扫描设备。这部分业务稳定,不依赖国防预算周期,因此为利多斯提供了稳定的收入基础。

  • Veteran and public health records退伍军人和公共卫生记录 — Leidos manages the systems that store patient health records for agencies that care for former soldiers, so doctors find a patient's history fast.Leidos 为照护退伍军人的机构管理存储病人健康记录的系统,让医生能快速找到病人的病史。
  • Air traffic and border systems空中交通和边境系统 — Leidos runs the computer systems that guide airplanes for the US air-traffic agency, and builds scanners that check travelers and cargo at borders.Leidos 为美国空中交通机构运行引导飞机的计算机系统,并制造在边境检查旅客和货物的扫描仪。
Commercial & International商业与国际13% · $2.3B

This segment sells Leidos' security scanners and engineering skills to friendly foreign governments and some private companies, outside the core US federal market. It lets Leidos use technology it first built for the US government to reach new customers abroad. It is one of Leidos' smaller segments, so revenue here is less steady than the US government work.该部门把利多斯的安全扫描设备和工程技术,出售给友好的外国政府和一些私营公司,业务范围在美国联邦政府核心市场之外。这让利多斯把最初为美国政府开发的技术用于开拓海外新客户。这是利多斯较小的部门之一,因此这部分收入不如美国政府业务稳定。

  • Security scanners for allies面向盟友的安检扫描仪 — Leidos sells airport and border scanners, which use X-rays to see inside bags and containers, to governments such as the UK and Australia.Leidos 把用X射线看清箱包和集装箱内部的机场和边境扫描仪,卖给英国、澳大利亚等国家的政府。
  • Energy and engineering services能源和工程服务 — Leidos gives technical help to energy companies, using skills it first built for government work.Leidos 用最初为政府工作练就的技能,为能源公司提供技术帮助。
Defense Systems国防系统13% · $2.2B

This segment builds physical defense hardware, not software or services. It makes sensors that track missile threats from space, and it builds and repairs spy planes and unmanned sea vehicles for the military. Because it delivers physical equipment, its revenue depends on production schedules and hardware orders rather than long-running service contracts.该部门建造实体防御装备,而不是软件或服务。它制造从太空探测和跟踪导弹威胁的传感器,并为军方建造和维修侦察机以及无人水面和水下航行器。由于交付的是实体装备,其收入取决于生产计划和硬件订单,而不是长期运行的服务合同。

  • Missile-defense sensors导弹防御传感器 — Leidos builds sensors that spot and track missile threats from space, so the military can react faster to an attack.Leidos 制造从太空发现并追踪导弹威胁的传感器,让军方能更快地对攻击做出反应。
  • Surveillance planes and sea drones侦察飞机和海上无人器 — Leidos builds and repairs spy planes, and unmanned boats and submarines, that the military uses to watch and patrol land and sea.Leidos 制造和维修侦察飞机,以及军方用来监视和巡逻陆地与海洋的无人船和无人潜航器。

Company facts公司资料

Founded成立时间
1969
Headquarters总部
Reston, Virginia
Employees员工人数
50,000
Industry行业
Information Technology Services
Country国家
United States

Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表

What's working

  • IN $111-131 — mid-band (54th pctile) | RE-ANALYZED 9/28 — conviction 8.0→7.5. Thesis persistence 85%; ZERO Structural or Trend claims broke — every status change sits in the Price and Judgment layers. ⭐ The $115-135 zone SURVIVED → $111-131, both ends down ~3%. It survived where three of four names failed on 9/22 for a specific, checkable reason: the price came TOWARD the value, not away from it — price −6.7%, fair value −4.3%, discount to central FV 23% → 21%, statistically unchanged. This is the clean counter-case to [[pitfall-stale-entry-zone-suppresses-a-name]] — a zone still approximately correct after a real move, demonstrated rather than assumed. Caveat: the zone survived on arithmetic; the enthusiasm to act at the top of it did not, because of the stacked December binaries.
  • The Oct 1 shutdown risk this run was commissioned to test DID NOT FIRE — the FY27 CR was signed 2026-09-02 (P.L. 119-103) and funds 10-01 → 12-11
  • S1 upgraded from asserted to evidenced — two incumbent retentions in 8 days: Navy NGEN-R SMIT $926M second option year (9/16) and Army ARTEMIS up to $127M (9/23). July's "recompete win-rates run high" assertion finally has data under it
  • Operating margin 7.8% → 12.2%, FCF +23.5% 3yr CAGR, buyback cash-funded, debt flat, backlog 2.66x revenue. 📉 TTM EPS $10.70 vs FY25 $11.14 — earnings −7% y/y; this breaks if FY26 lands below the $12.20 guide floor. 🔬 The sector-de-rating reading FAILS: LDOS is −41% off its 52w high ($205.77) and BAH −35%, but CACI −11% and SAIC −8%. LDOS's fall is not explained by its own numbers (revenue +7%, guide raised twice). It is the cheapest in the peer set (9.87x fwd vs SAIC 11.41x, BAH 10.49x, CACI 16.16x) on the best operating margin (12%)
  • The baseline's "cheap, not free" caution was its best sentence and is vindicated: the stock ran a further +12.4% to $146.85, then gave the whole overshoot back; still +5.4% above the pre-print level. FV $148-173 → $142-167 (c. $161 → c. $154) = 11.5-13.5x the FY26 guide mid — the cut is entirely the required return; every earnings input is unchanged. Entry $111-131. Trim 13.5x fwd($12.35) (FY26 guide mid $12.35 ≈ $167). 75, so the site shows ~$172
  • MDE RESOLVED 9/28 (same-day addendum) — 12/31 is NOT a competition Leidos might lose. It is the expiry of a bridge extension it already holds a seat on: in Jan-2025 the VA extended the four incumbents rather than recompeting (Maximus/VES, Leidos QTC, Optumserve, Loyal Source), and the 2025 Regions 1-4 Recompete — which Leidos won — is already behind us. Leidos is the LARGEST holder on the vehicle: $5.1B obligated vs Maximus $3.7B, Optumserve $3.4B, Loyal Source $500M+. Ceiling raised $6.8B → $13.2B on demand, 9M+ exams — the VA keeps enlarging this program. Realistic downside is task-order share at the next vehicle, not franchise loss.

Watch

  • RETRACTED — the Graham mechanism was backwards in BOTH prior reports. July wrote that Graham is "understated — penalizes goodwill-heavy book." It cannot. Graham = √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS), and BVPS is book, not tangible book. LDOS's $42.11 BVPS rests on $6.34B of goodwill against $4.92B of total equity — tangible book per share is negative (≈ −$11). Goodwill INFLATES the Graham output. Corrected IV $100.69 — an already-flattered number still sitting 17% below spot. Cause: a reasoning error carried July → August, not a vendor trap, so no pitfall note is owed. Graham now carries ZERO weight on this name, not "floor indication" weight. 🔄 The one identifiable thesis-breaking event got a DATE — and the date turned out to be benign. The baseline: the VA MDE recompete "is the one identifiable event that breaks the thesis, and it is not scheduled." It is scheduled — the Regions 1-4 MDE IDIQ carrying QTC's FY26 $392.7M delivery order has a stated completion date of 2026-12-31, ~90 days out
  • Thinnest load-bearing input in the file: the date comes from the Jan-2025 award documentation; no 2026 confirmation of a follow-on or extension was obtained.
  • But two binaries now stack: CR expiry 12-11 and the MDE completion date 12-31, twenty days apart, BOTH AFTER the early-November print. The print resolves neither. A CR also blocks new program starts, throttling the defense-tech ramp, and none of the 12 FY27 appropriations bills is enacted
  • Neither prior report noted that LDOS fell $205 → $98.86 — this is a broken chart in recovery, not a steady compounder.
  • Untested and named, so the next run is honest: mix-shift to munitions/USV/space (no bookings disclosure; the two September awards are services-side) MDE platform replicability — now the highest-stakes untested row, since its event has a date current book-to-bill and backlog (a search result offering "Q3 2026" bookings of $5.9B/1.3x describes an earlier fiscal quarter and was discarded). The September price fall has no confirmed cause, and analyst consensus is unreconciled between $157.27 (used) and $188.31 (not used). Accumulate the lower half of the zone; hold size back for December.
  • New flag instead: no published follow-on solicitation with expiry ~90d out. Another bridge is the base case on precedent, but the procurement path is invisible. Conviction at [7.5] — J3 carried much of the cut and half of it just evaporated, but the other legs (TTM EPS −7%, CR new-start freeze, required return) stand, and re-rating on re-weighted facts is its own failure. Upgrade gate: a follow-on or second bridge naming Leidos QTC → [8.0]. Q3 print early Nov (recheck 11/04).

🔵 2026-09-28 重新分析——信心 8.0→7.5。 论点存活率 85%;没有任何一条结构性或趋势性主张被打破——所有状态变化都发生在价格层和judgment层。 ⭐ $115-135 的买入区间存活了 → $111-131,两端各下移约 3%。 它之所以在 9/22 有四分之三的名字失效的情况下存活下来,理由具体且可核查:是价格向价值靠拢,而不是价值离开价格——价格 −6.7%,合理价值 −4.3%,相对中枢的折价从 23% → 21%,统计上没有变化。 ** 这是 [[pitfall-stale-entry-zone-suppresses-a-name]] 的干净反例——一个在真实波动之后依然大致正确的区间,是被证明的,而不是被假定的。 ** 注意:区间是靠算术存活下来的;但在区间上沿动手的热情没有存活,因为 12 月堆叠着两个二元事件。 * ❌ 已撤回——格雷厄姆模型的机制在前两份报告里都搞反了。 ** 7 月写的是格雷厄姆「被低估了——它惩罚商誉占比高的账面价值」。 它不可能这样。 ** 格雷厄姆 = √(22.5 × 每股收益 × 每股账面价值),而每股账面价值是账面价值,不是有形账面价值。 LDOS 的 $42.11 每股账面价值建立在 $4.92B 总权益中的 $6.34B 商誉之上——每股有形账面价值是负的(约 −$11)。 商誉是抬高格雷厄姆输出值的。 修正后的内在价值 $100.69——一个本来就被美化过的数字,却仍然比现价低 17%。 原因是从 7 月带到 8 月的推理错误,不是供应商数据陷阱,所以不欠一条 pitfall 笔记。 * 格雷厄姆模型在这个名字上现在权重为零,而不是「下限参考」的权重。 ** 🔄 那个唯一可识别的、会打破论点的事件有了日期——然后这个日期被证明是良性的。 ** ✅ MDE 已查证(9/28 当日附录)——12/31 并不是一场 Leidos 可能输掉的竞标。 它是一份 Leidos 早已占有席位的过渡延期合同的到期日:2025 年 1 月,VA 选择延长四家在位承包商的合同,而不是重新招标(Maximus/VES、Leidos QTC、Optumserve、Loyal Source),而 2025 年 Regions 1-4 的重新招标——Leidos 赢了——早已尘埃落定。 Leidos 是这个合同工具上最大的持有方:已下达合同额 $5.1B,对比 Maximus $3.7B、Optumserve $3.4B、Loyal Source $500M+。 合同上限因需求超出而从 $6.8B 上调到 $13.2B,覆盖 900 万次以上体检——VA 在不断扩大这个项目。 现实的下行风险是下一个合同工具上的任务单份额,而不是丢掉整个业务。 ** ⚠️ 取而代之的新风险点:距到期约 90 天,仍未看到任何已公布的后续招标。 按先例,再来一次过渡延期是基准情形,但采购路径目前是不可见的。 信心维持 [7.5]——J3 承担了这次下调的很大一部分,而其中一半刚刚消失了;但下调的其他支柱(滚动每股收益 −7%、CR 对新项目启动的冻结、要求回报率上升)依然成立,而仅凭对同一批事实的重新加权就上调评级,本身就是一种失误。 上调条件:出现点名 Leidos QTC 的后续合同或第二次过渡延期 → [8.0]。 ** 原先的表述是: 基准报告说:VA MDE 重新竞标「是唯一一个能打破论点的可识别事件,而且它没有排期」。 它有排期——承载 QTC 的 FY26 $392.7M 交付订单的 Regions 1-4 MDE IDIQ,载明的完成日期是 2026-12-31,约 90 天之后。 ⚠️ 这是全文中最薄弱的承重输入: 日期来自 2025 年 1 月的授标文件;没有拿到任何 2026 年关于后续合同或延期的确认。 ** ✅ 这次分析被委派去检验的 10 月 1 日停摆风险,没有发生——FY27 的临时拨款决议(CR)已于 2026-09-02 签署(P.L. 119-103),资金覆盖到 12-11。 🔴 但两个二元事件现在叠在一起了:CR 到期 12-11 和 MDE 完成日 12-31,相隔二十天,而且都在 11 月初的财报之后。 财报一个都解决不了。 ** CR 同时冻结新项目启动,抑制国防科技的爬坡,而且 FY27 的 12 项拨款法案一项都没有通过。 ✅ S1 从「断言」升级为「有证据」——8 天内两次成功续约: 海军 NGEN-R SMIT $926M 第二个选择权年度(9/16),以及陆军 ARTEMIS 最高 $127M(9/23)。 7 月那句「重新竞标的胜率很高」的断言,终于有数据支撑了。 ✅ 营业利润率 7.8% → 12.2%,自由现金流 3 年复合增长率 +23.5%,回购由现金支付,债务持平,订单储备是收入的 2.66 倍。 📉 滚动每股收益 $10.70,对比 FY25 的 $11.14——盈利同比 −7%;如果 FY26 落在 $12.20 的指引下限之下,这条就破了。 🔬 「整个板块被杀估值」这个读法站不住: LDOS 距 52 周高点($205.77)−41%,BAH −35%,但 CACI 只有 −11%,SAIC 只有 −8%。 LDOS 的下跌无法用它自己的数字解释(收入 +7%,指引上调了两次)。 它是同业中最便宜的(9.87x 前瞻,对比 SAIC 11.41x、BAH 10.49x、CACI 16.16x),同时营业利润率最高(12%)。 ⚠️ 前两份报告都没有注意到 LDOS 从 $205 跌到过 $98.86——这是一张正在修复的破图,不是一个稳定的复利机器。 ** ✅ 基准报告那句「便宜,但不是白送」是它最好的一句话,而且被验证了:股价又涨了 +12.4% 到 $146.85,然后把整段超涨全部吐回去;目前仍比财报前水平高 5.4%。 合理价值 $148-173 → $142-167(中枢 $161 → $154)= FY26 指引中值的 11.5-13.5 倍——这次下调完全来自要求回报率;每一项盈利输入都没有变。 ** 买入区间 $111-131。 减持 13.5x 前瞻(FY26 指引中值 $12.35,约 $167)。 ⚠️ 网站会渲染得高约 3.1%——雅虎前瞻市盈率 9.54 隐含每股收益 $12.75,所以网站显示约 $172。 ⚠️ 未经检验并已具名,好让下一轮保持诚实: 向弹药/USV/太空的业务结构转移(没有订单披露;9 月那两个订单都在服务侧)· MDE 平台的可复制性——现在是风险最高的未检验项,因为它的事件已经有日期了 当前的订单出货比和订单储备(一条声称「2026 年第三季度」订单为 $5.9B/1.3x 的搜索结果,描述的是更早的财季,已被丢弃)。 9 月的下跌没有确认原因,分析师一致目标价在 $157.27(采用)和 $188.31(未采用)之间无法调和。 **

Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动

Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例

Gross profit毛利润
18%
Operating profit营业利润
12%
Net profit净利润
8%

of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比

Return on equity净资产收益率
28%
Revenue growth营收增长
+7%
Dividend yield股息率
1.39%

Competitors竞争对手

Booz Allen HamiltonSAICCACI InternationalGeneral Dynamics Information Technology

Why customers stay客户为什么留下

Leidos holds the security clearances (government approval to see secret information) and the long track record needed to run classified programs, so it is hard and costly for the government to switch to a new company mid-contract.Leidos握有运行机密项目所需的安全许可(政府批准其查看机密信息的资格)和长期的业绩记录,所以政府在合同中途换一家新公司既难又费钱。

Related companies相关公司 🟡 Govt / defense services

Federal budget + DOGE-style program risk.

LDOS is the upgrade over BAH — don't hold both.

Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天

Sources来源