SAP SE
SAP 7Price and target zones价格与目标区间
Above fair value高于合理价值
What the company does公司做什么
SAP is a German company that makes the software a large business uses to run itself. Its main product is an ERP system — one central program that records a company's finance, supply chain, purchasing, and staff on a single database. Most large companies in the world run on it.SAP是一家德国公司，生产大企业用来运营自身的软件。它的主打产品是ERP系统——一个把公司的财务、供应链、采购和员工都记录在同一个数据库上的中央程序。世界上大多数大公司都靠它运转。
Earns from营收来源 cloud subscriptions, which are now most of the revenue, plus support fees on older software the customer installed on its own computers.云订阅费，如今已是收入的大头，加上客户装在自己电脑上的老软件的支持服务费。
Read the full description查看完整介绍
SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR, time, payroll, talent and employee experience management, and analytics and planning; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand business process operations; industry solutions that provide customers and partners with industry-specific solutions; and SAP LeanIX to visualize enterprise architecture, assess interdependencies and the potential impact of IT modernization, and manage the transition toward the target landscape. Further, the company provides WalkMe to execute workflows; SAP Enable Now, which offers e-learning content embedded in SAP workflows; Taulia solutions for working capital management; and sustainability solutions and services. Additionally, it provides services and support solutions. The company has a strategic collaboration with Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA and Avelios Medical GmbH for the development of a cloud-native, hospital information system that enables digitalization of clinical and administrative processes with AI integration. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.
Revenue breakdown营收构成 share of revenue营收占比
This is SAP's subscription business. Customers pay a recurring fee to run SAP's software over the internet, instead of installing it on their own machines. It covers the core ERP engine plus add-on tools for human resources, purchasing, and travel expenses. Growth here funds SAP's shift away from one-time software sales toward steady, repeat income.这是SAP的订阅业务。客户按经常性费用通过互联网使用SAP软件，而不是安装在自己的电脑上。它包括核心ERP引擎，以及人力资源、采购和差旅报销等附加工具。这部分的增长，支撑了SAP从一次性软件销售转向稳定、可重复的收入。
- S/4HANA — The core ERP system. It records finance, manufacturing, and inventory in real time, and is the master copy of a company's records.核心ERP系统。它实时记录财务、生产和库存，是一家公司记录的主副本。
- SuccessFactors — Human-resources software for hiring, pay records, and staff management.用于招聘、薪酬记录和员工管理的人力资源软件。
- Ariba — A purchasing network. A company uses it to find suppliers and manage orders and invoices.一个采购网络。公司用它来寻找供应商、管理订单和发票。
- Concur — Travel booking and expense claims.差旅预订和费用报销。
This covers upkeep fees on SAP's older software still installed on a customer's own computers, plus the consulting work needed to set SAP systems up and run them. A customer pays this simply to keep an existing system running and secure, not to gain new features. The group of customers still on this older setup gets smaller each year as they move to the cloud version.这部分包括客户自有电脑上仍在运行的SAP旧版软件的维护费用，以及部署和运行SAP系统所需的咨询服务。客户支付这笔费用只是为了让现有系统继续运行并保持安全，而不是为了获得新功能。仍使用这种旧模式的客户群体，每年都在减少，因为他们正逐步转向云版本。
Company facts公司资料
- Founded成立时间
- 1972
- Headquarters总部
- Walldorf, Germany
- Employees员工人数
- 112,019
- Industry行业
- Software - Application
- Country国家
- Germany
Investment thesis投资逻辑 from the watchlist来自关注列表
✂️ Re-analyzed 8/27 — →TRIM, conviction 7.0 held (quality unchanged, valuation moved).
Watch
- Price ran +48% in 35 days ($149→$221) on NO earnings upgrade — consensus FY26 non-IFRS EPS was actually cut €7.4→€6.84 — so this is pure multiple expansion (~18x→~27x current-year). Every thesis-break gate still holds and the EU antitrust probe (the March #1 risk) closed 7/9 with no fine; Q2 CCB confirmed €22.9B +27%
- But AI-monetization doubt got specific (UBS: 17 of 200 agents live; cloud GM-before-SBC fell for the first time since 2021). ADR vendor fields unusable (EV/P/B/Graham all corrupted — [[pitfall-currency-mixed-ev-is-invertible-on-adrs]]); vendor "22.98x fwd" was FY2027, true current-year ~27x ([[pitfall-vendor-forward-eps-is-the-wrong-fiscal-year]]). FV $159-207 (base ~$183). Entry $145-165 (strong <$145). Trim 25x ttm (~$195 — spot is above it)
8/27 重新分析——持有→减持，信念维持 7.0（质量不变，估值移动）。 ⚠️ 35 天 +48%（$149→$221）却无盈利上调——共识 FY26 non-IFRS EPS 反被下调 €7.4→€6.84——纯属倍数扩张（约 18x→约 27x 当年）。 所有止损门槛仍守住，EU 反垄断调查（三月头号风险）7/9 无罚款结案；Q2 CCB 确认 €22.9B +27%。 ⚠️ 但 AI 变现疑虑具体化（UBS：200 个 agent 仅 17 个上线；云 SBC 前毛利率自 2021 年来首降）。 ADR 供应商字段不可用（EV/市净率/Graham 均损坏）。 FV $159-207。 入场 $145-165（强力 <$145），减持 25x ttm。
Historical results历史业绩 past fiscal years — these values do not change过去财年——这些数值不会变动
Profit margins利润率 the share of revenue that stays as profit营收中留存为利润的比例
of every $1 of revenue每 $1 营收中的占比
- Return on equity净资产收益率
- 18%
- Revenue growth营收增长
- +9%
- Dividend yield股息率
- 1.39%
Competitors竞争对手
Why customers stay客户为什么留下
The ERP system runs the whole company end to end, with years of custom process and staff training built on top. To remove it is a multi-year, high-risk project, so customers stay and move onto SAP's newer cloud version instead. The total cloud order book was 77.3 billion euro at year end.ERP系统从头到尾运行整个公司，上面还叠着多年的定制流程和员工培训。要把它拆掉是一个耗时数年、风险很高的工程，所以客户选择留下来，转而升级到SAP更新的云版本。到年末，云端订单总额为773亿欧元。
Recent news近期新闻 last 7 days近7天
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