Discovery › screen
Screen 52wk low fresh
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Read this as a funnel, not a buy list. "Near a 52wk low" is a starting point; the
bucket and thesis are the judgment. Only the quality-on-sale names with an attractive
entry are candidates for a real /analyze — the rest need a catalyst, a currency check,
or a cycle to turn first.
🟢 Quality-on-sale — good business, cheap for a non-structural reason
| Ticker | Q | Entry | Thesis (one line) |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMUS | 8 | attractive | FCF tripled since 2022, margins expanding; down on wireless price-war sentiment, not a broken model. |
| XYL | 8 | attractive | Water infra; FCF CAGR 33%, rev CAGR 18% (Evoqua), low debt — drop reads as industrial-capex cycle. |
| OLED | 8 | attractive | Near-monopoly OLED IP licensor, 74% gross margin, near-zero debt; near Graham IV, cyclical panel softness. |
| STZ | 7.5 | attractive | 20% net margin, 24% ROE, steady FCF; down on wine drag + Modelo tariff fear, core beer intact. fwd PE 10.6. |
| CNM | 7.5 | attractive | Water/wastewater distributor still growing FCF 17% CAGR, ROE 24%, shrinking share count; construction-cycle sentiment. |
| ACM | 7.5 | attractive | Infra engineering, steady FCF, NetInc CAGR 22%, buybacks+div, 26% D/A; generic industrials/rate de-rate. fwd PE 10.4. |
| TME | 7.5 | attractive | China music streaming, 26% net margin, big net-cash (EV 2.6B vs 14B cap), growing FCF; priced like melting ice. fwd PE 8.6. ⚠️China ADR/VIE. |
| CALX | 7.5 | attractive* | Broadband-access vendor, FCF CAGR 106%, gross margin 57%, rev +21%; BEAD tailwind. *confirm pullback is funding-timing, not orders. |
| DECK | ~8 | attractive | Elite margins (58% gross, 43% ROE), FCF +34% CAGR, net cash; down on Hoka/Ugg decel + tariff fear. fwd PE 10.3 — quality/price mismatch. |
| PNR | 7 | attractive | Water/pool industrial, FCF CAGR 39%, ROE 17%, margins improving; cyclical demand air-pocket (rev -17% yoy). fwd PE 12. |
| INGR | 7 | attractive | Ingredion — flat revenue but margins/NI expanding, FCF covers 3.1% yield at 36% payout. fwd PE 9, P/B 1.4. |
| MZTI | 7 | attractive | Marzetti — recent packaged-foods spinoff, FCF CAGR 15%, low leverage, 3.5% yield; spinoff/index-flow overhang. |
| BKE | 7 | attractive | Buckle — high-margin retailer (17% NM, 46% ROE), covered 3%+ div; broad retail sentiment, mild top-line decline to watch. |
| MNSO | 6 | fair | MINISO core retail + 5.8% yield cheap, but debt tripled to $10.8B on Yonghui stake — underwrite leverage first. ⚠️China ADR. |
| ROL | 9 | wait | Rollins — best business here (pest control, ROE 37%), but 27.6x fwd even at the low. Quality priced for perfection. |
🟡 Cyclical-value — fine business, down on the cycle (opportunistic, needs a turn)
| Ticker | Q | Entry | Thesis (one line) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HDB | 8 | attractive | HDFC Bank compounding mid-teens, 14% ROE, clean book; India/rupee sentiment. ⚠️re-derive per-ADS share math. |
| LII | 8 | attractive | Lennox — HVAC compounder, 72% ROE, growing FCF; housing/HVAC cyclical dip. Trades far above Graham IV — pay for quality. |
| WSO | 7 | fair | Watsco — HVAC distribution normalizing after R-410A pull-forward, not competitive loss; payout >100% on TTM, wait for stabilization. |
| STWD | 6.5 | attractive | Starwood — CRE mortgage REIT at 0.89 P/B, 12% yield covered by FCF (708M vs 668M div); rate/CRE fear, not a cut signal. |
| FNF | ~6 | attractive | Fidelity National — title insurer, FCF $5.7B, 4.4% yield at 72% payout; rate/housing cycle trough. fwd PE 8.2. |
| APTV | 6.5 | attractive | Aptiv — FCF tripled 3yr, down on auto/EV/tariff fear; EV slowdown is a real multi-year risk though. fwd PE <7. |
| CCL | 6.5 | attractive | Carnival — cruise recovery real (rev +30% CAGR, ROE 27%); but current ratio 0.33, D/E 202% — risk-tolerant only. fwd PE 9.5. |
| THO | 6 | attractive | Thor — RV maker off COVID peak but FCF-positive throughout, D/A only 13%, PEG 0.76; trough not yet confirmed. |
| EEFT | ~6 | attractive | Euronet — payments/ATM, 22% ROE, fwd PE 5.7, PEG 0.51; travel/FX sentiment. Verify FCF -12% CAGR + float-debt. |
| SRAD | 6.5 | fair | Sportradar — sports-data, FCF growing fast; drop on fear DraftKings/FanDuel insource data. Customer concentration is the tell. |
| INTR | 6 | attractive | Inter&Co — Brazil neobank, loss→1.3B NI, 33% rev CAGR, 16% ROE; BRL/Brazil-macro. fwd PE 5.5. ⚠️BRL ADR. |
| BLDR | 6.5 | fair | Builders FirstSource — housing-starts distributor in the trough; fwd PE 15 is the real read, wait for starts inflection. |
| RBA | 7 | wait | RB Global — auction marketplace, 38% rev CAGR post-IAA; still 17.6x fwd, rich even after drop. |
| LEN | 6 | fair | Lennar — homebuilder, FCF collapsed to ~zero on margin compression but strong balance sheet; rate-cycle, not structural. |
| POOL | 7 | wait | Pool Corp — dominant distributor (31% ROE) but 17.3x on still-falling FCF; wait for demand trough. |
| SITE | 6 | attractive | SiteOne — landscape distributor, rev still +5% but NI CAGR -15% on margin; buybacks through downturn. |
| CALM | 7 | fair | Cal-Maine — egg producer mean-reverting off avian-flu spike; pristine balance sheet, variable div swings hard. |
| STZ→see above | |||
| LVS | 6 | fair | Las Vegas Sands — Macau/Singapore recovery, solid FCF, but near-zero equity — levered Asia-gaming bet. |
| WYNN | 6 | fair | Wynn — leverage (D/A 93%, neg equity); levered bet on Macau + 2027 UAE catalyst. |
| NRG | 5 | fair | NRG — AI-power-demand name off 40%, cheap multiple but thin equity ($1.7B vs $16.6B debt), volatile FCF. |
| LAZ | 6 | fair | Lazard — M&A-cyclical advisory, 4.7% yield but ~100% payout leaves no cushion until deal volume returns. |
| ASO | 6 | fair | Academy Sports — profitable (19% ROE) but rev+FCF shrinking 3yr; FCF CAGR -21% could tip to trap. |
| ESAB | ~5 | fair | ESAB — welding roll-up, one-year earnings dip; leverage (D/E 98%) leaves no room for a second miss. |
| TLK | 5.5 | fair | Telkom Indonesia — 8.3% yield, improving FCF but declining NI; payout 123% of EPS, IDR/state risk. |
| WIT | 6 | wait | Wipro — IT services, 4.7% yield but ~0.8% rev CAGR + AI-deflation call; payout 88%, let growth inflect. ⚠️INR unit trap. |
🟠 Turnaround-watch — inflecting or mid-integration, needs one more clean quarter
SNN (7, attractive — medical device FCF inflection, but long disappointment history) · BILI (6, first GAAP profit, China ADR) · POST (5, packaged-food, egg/protein cost normalization) · DKS (Foot Locker integration/leverage) · SGI (Tempur/Mattress Firm, D/E 198%) · JBTM (JBT/Marel merger, GAAP loss) · AMTM (govt-services roll-up, ROE 4%) · MIR (nuclear instrumentation, 165x TTM, deal-funded) · CCI (tower REIT, negative equity, fiber sale + Elliott) · VIPS (China discount retail losing share to PDD/Douyin) · BXMT (CRE mortgage REIT, payout not covered) · STNE (Brazil fintech, earnings-quality noise).
🔴 Value-trap / Too-hard — skip
Value-trap: LFTO (negative equity, debt-funded distributions) · PATK (RV/marine cycle rolling over, multi-year decay). Too-hard: GME (now a cash/crypto holding-co bet, not retail) · AADX, FRVO, INIO (thin post-spin/IPO history) · RLX (China vaping regulation wildcard).
Recommended next actions
Top 5 for a real /analyze (quality-on-sale + attractive + no blocking caveat):
TMUS · XYL · DECK · STZ · CNM. Runners-up: OLED, ACM, PNR, INGR.
Data caveats surfaced by the agents (don't skip before deep work): - Foreign-currency ADRs report FCF/statements in local currency — do NOT read raw magnitude: TME, TLK, WIT, INTR, STNE, BILI, HDB, MNSO. - HDB per-ADS share math looked distorted in the feed — re-derive before valuing. - Financials/REITs (STWD, BXMT, PFSI, FNF) need an FCF-agnostic lens; generic FCF gate misreads them.