Discovery › screen
Screen nuclear uranium pipeline
Date: 2026-09-10 | Companion to analyze-2026-09-10 (LEU) | Prior sweep: 2026-06-10
Mandate: re-sweep the full fuel cycle (mine → mill/convert → enrich → fabricate → generate, plus equipment/services), differential against the June-10 baseline, apply the layer heuristic from
Knowledge/Themes/nuclear-uranium.md, and measure every name against its own historical band — never its 52-week high. Fanned out across three parallel layer passes.
The one correction that reframes the whole field
The "nuclear crash" headlines (UEC −50%, CCJ −30% "off highs") measure from an interim summer-2026 mania peak that formed after the June-10 baseline and then round-tripped. Against the correct differential anchor (June-10 prices), the complex is flat-to-up:
| Name | June 10 | Sep 10 | Δ vs June | Δ off interim 52wk high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCJ | ~$100 | $97.42 | −2.6% | −27.9% |
| NXE | $10.45 | $10.21 | −2.3% | −26.9% |
| UUUU | $13.84 | $13.63 | −1.5% | −51.1% |
| UEC | $9.42 | $11.02 | +17.0% | −45.8% |
| DNN | ~$2.75 | $3.23 | +17.5% | −27.1% |
| CEG | ~$253 | $285.97 | +12.9% | — |
| VST | ~$148 | $147.05 | −0.5% | — |
Meanwhile uranium spot rose ~4% ($86 → ~$89.4/lb) and the term price hit a record
~$96/lb (Kazatomprom cut 2026 output ~10%). The equities amplified a round-trip spot never
made — a sentiment/positioning cycle on a genuinely tight physical market, not a
commodity re-rating. On their own bands, the group is not cheap: principle-down-a-lot-is-not-cheap.
Live confirmation of the layer heuristic: the 2026-09-08 Piper Sandler split (Buy OKLO / Sell X-energy) hit the SMR/pre-revenue layer −5–6% while the generation layer (CEG/VST/TLN) was flat-to-up the same day. Two layers, one headline, opposite reactions — the risk types trade independently under stress.
Layer 1 — Generation (contracted cash flow; lowest-risk layer)
| Ticker | Price | vs own band | Conviction | In-zone? | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | $147.05 | fwd P/E ~14x — fair-to-cheap vs pre-mania avg | [7.5] scout — NEW | ~mid | 2 signed 20yr PPAs (Meta 2,609MW + AWS 1,200MW), Cogentrix ~44GW, sell-side raising targets. /analyze pending. |
| CEG | $285.97 | top of / above own band — rich | [6.0] WATCH | No (entry $225-250) | NRC EA due Sept; full licence slipped to May 2027. Premium to VST/TLN (~51%) did not compress. |
| TLN | $311.54 | EV/EBITDA ~42x — rich absolute | [6.0-6.5] first look | No | Guidance raised twice, AWS anchor, 70%+ capital-return; but thin coverage, tiny float — speculative-tier within a low-risk layer. |
| ETR | $105.73 | regulated multiples | [5.5] | — | No AI catalyst. Skip. |
Verdict: best risk/reward in the layer = VST — the only name fair vs its own history.
Layer 2 — Mining (producing = spot-price risk · pre-production = execution/permit risk)
Producing:
| Ticker | Price | vs own band | Conviction | In-zone? | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEC | $11.02 | ~5% above $8.50-10.50 top | [6.5] reaffirm | nearly | Best pure-play producer; Burke Hollow ramping, clean balance sheet. Moved toward zone (was +29%, now +5%). |
| CCJ | $97.42 | 39-70% above $45-70 SOTP FV | [4.0] reaffirm | No | Westinghouse S-1 still confidential (trigger not fired). At price it's a Westinghouse-option bet, not a uranium bet; now above the legacy $95 trim. |
| UUUU | $13.63 | ~flat vs June | [6.0] reaffirm | No | New leverage: debt ~$2M → $676M (D/E 85%) funding rare-earth capex. |
| Boss Energy (BOE.AX) | — | ~10.7x EV/EBITDA — cheapest | comp — NEW | — | Only FCF-positive miner in the set (+$19.4M). Worth a /health. |
Pre-production: | Ticker | Price | Conviction | Note | |---|---|---|---| | NXE | $10.21 | [6.0] reaffirm — risk type changed | CNSC construction licence granted 2026-03-05; FID taken; 4-yr build. Binary permit risk resolved → now execution/financing risk. | | DNN | $3.23 | [5.0] reaffirm | Freshly funded ($466M cash via ~$459M debt, D/E 238% mostly non-recourse). Earlier-stage than Rook I. |
CAD/USD mixing trap (pitfall-yahoo-mixes-cad-usd-on-cross-listed-issuers) applies to CCJ, NXE and DNN — treat vendor multiples as directional.
Verdict: best name = UEC — only producer that moved toward its entry zone while production ramps and the balance sheet stays clean.
Layer 3 — SMR / Equipment / Enrichment-competitor (highest-risk + highest-moat, kept separate)
| Ticker | Price | Valuation / runway | Conviction | Investable? | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | $152.49 | 40x ttm; FV $145-195 | [6.5] WATCH | 1.7% above $150 entry top | Army "Janus" microreactor win (Fort Campbell, up to $2.2B program); Investor Day 9/29 = catalyst. Runs defense-only NNSA enrichment (DUECE, $1.5B) — does not compete with LEU. |
| LEU | $165.87 | EV/Backlog 0.57x | [7.6] ACCUMULATE | in-zone | Re-analyzed today — see analyze-2026-09-10. Only licensed+operating HALEU producer. |
| OKLO | $39.88 | pre-rev; $2.465B cash, ~9yr runway | ~[4.5] scout | speculative | Best-funded pure SMR; real DOE milestones. Piper "Buy $55" = business-model call, not a hard catalyst. /analyze pending if exposure wanted. |
| SMR (NuScale) | $10.21 | see 8/27 report | [2.0] | do not add | TVA PPA still non-binding — no re-rate trigger fired. Unchanged. |
| XE (X-energy) | $15.84 | rev $54.6M Q2 (+154%), $1.9B liq, no debt | watch | not yet | IPO'd 4/2026; best pre-rev fundamentals BUT Piper Sell $9 + burn tripling QoQ. Re-examine next print. |
| NNE (Nano Nuclear) | $17.36 | $580M cash, ~16yr runway | ~[3.5-4.0] | lottery-ticket | DOE LEU subcontractor ($3.4B aggregate program), AFWERX Phase II. Beta 5.4. Size for total loss. |
| ASPI | $3.59 | net debt, ~3yr runway | skip (nuclear angle) | no | HALEU is MOU-only sub-plot on an isotopes business. |
| LTBR | $7.34 | $237M cash, ~14yr runway | [3.0] | skip | Odd: huge cash pile vs $17M/yr burn — capital-allocation purpose not yet visible. |
| Holtec | private | — | — | — | Confidential IPO filed Feb 2026 — watch for S-1. |
Verdict: equipment/services = BWXT (moat intact, knocking on entry); speculative SMR = OKLO (best-funded); skip SMR-for-new-capital, ASPI, and XE-at-price.
Re-ranked screen (Sep 2026) — by risk-adjusted attractiveness
| Rank | Ticker | Layer | Why | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEU | Enrichment | ACCUMULATE [7.6]; in-zone after −15%, funding secured | Held — add small |
| 2 | VST | Generation | Only name fair vs own band; 2 signed 20yr PPAs | /analyze → watchlist |
| 3 | UEC | Mining (producing) | Nearest to entry zone; clean balance sheet | Watch $8.50-10.50 |
| 4 | BWXT | Equipment | Best moat; 1.7% above entry; 9/29 catalyst | Watch $135-150 |
| 5 | CEG | Generation | Best asset, but above-band-rich; May-2027 licence | WATCH |
| 6 | NXE | Mining (pre-prod) | Permit de-risked → execution risk; best deposit | Watch $6.50-8 |
| 7 | OKLO | SMR | Best-funded speculative SMR | /analyze if exposure wanted |
| — | CCJ | Mining/multi | [4.0]; Westinghouse-option bet, above FV | Wait sub-$55 + S-1 |
| — | Boss Energy | Mining | Only FCF-positive miner — NEW | /health |
| — | SMR / XE / NNE / ASPI / LTBR / DNN / TLN / UUUU | — | see layer tables | mostly skip/watch |
What this sweep did NOT do
- No full
/analyzeon VST, OKLO, or Boss Energy — those are the follow-up actions this sweep nominates. - Multiples for OTC ADR comps (Kazatomprom, Paladin, Boss) are directional only — thin liquidity + currency mixing.
- Westinghouse & Holtec S-1s not yet public — the two named IPO triggers remain unfired.
Sources: Yahoo Finance MCP + .mcp/fin.py live quotes/statements (all tickers); World Nuclear News (NXE Rook I licence, Urenco HALEUF, General Matter); Piper Sandler sector split coverage (Yahoo/247WallSt, 9/8-9); Talen/Vistra Q2 guidance; carboncredits.com + Sprott (uranium spot/term price); Westinghouse confidential-IPO release; Army.mil (BWXT Janus); company IR/PRNewswire (Oklo DOE milestones, X-energy, Nano Nuclear, ASPI). Distilled into Knowledge/Themes/nuclear-uranium.md.