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Screen todays movers catalysts and analyze targets
⚠️ POST-CLOSE CORRECTION — APP printed and cratered
This report was written before the 4pm close. The APP section below said "no catalyst today," which was true at 4:00pm and is now wrong. APP reported Q2 after the bell and the stock fell −16% to ~$351, printing $324.93 (−22%) in the 16:00 bar — an early equity-value loss of roughly $40B, with some quotes showing −28.7% at the extreme.
$351 is BELOW the 52-week low of $359.00.
Reported Consensus Gap Q2 revenue $1.924B (+52.8% YoY) ~$1.935B −0.6% Q2 adj EPS $3.76 $3.67 BEAT Q3 revenue guide $2.055-2.085B ~$2.068B −0.6% at midpoint The reaction is an order of magnitude larger than the miss. A 0.6% revenue shortfall on 52.8% growth, alongside an EPS beat, does not mechanically justify −22%. What broke is the expectation, not the business — the same shape as GDDY on 7/31 (−21.1% on a guide the market misread), which this repo analyzed and put in zone at [6.5].
This does not weaken the /analyze case — it is the reason to run it. The pre-print argument was "held, never analyzed, 19.4x forward." At $351 the forward multiple is ~16.3x and ~30x FCF/share of $11.53, on a company that just grew revenue 52.8% and beat on earnings. That is either the market correctly calling the end of the Axon run, or a repeat of the GDDY setup. Nothing in this file resolves which — the
/analyzedoes.⚠️ Expect target cuts. The $656.20 mean target predates the print and will move; do not use it as an anchor. ⚠️ The 1.24-share position size means this costs the user almost nothing — roughly $82 — which is exactly why the sizing question below is the real one.
2026-08-05 · Requested: "lots of big movements today especially, wondering if there was any catalyst for any of the companies in my list (for example AppLovin), and also if there's new opportunities" → refined mid-run to "mostly looking for /analyze targets."
Executive Answer
Today was an earnings day, not a macro day. Every large move in a tracked name has a name-specific, same-day cause — a Q2 print, a guide, or an executive departure. There is no sector rotation, no rate move, and no common factor to trade. The index closed at records (Dow fresh high) while the Nasdaq was held back by two single names, AMD and SpaceX.
On AppLovin: no catalyst during the session — and then the print detonated it after the bell. APP closed $417.80, −0.45%, one of the quietest names on the list, then fell −16% to ~$351 on Q2 results (low of $324.93, −22%). The move is post-close, which is why an intraday scan showed nothing. See the correction block above: the miss was 0.6% on revenue with an EPS beat, and the stock is now below its 52-week low at ~16.3x forward.
The most valuable thing this screen found is not a new stock — it is a coverage hole. Three names the user actually owns have never been analyzed once: APP, DT, and AMD. All three moved today or report today. APP has a conviction score of none and a watchlist instruction ("let it run, trim $650+") written for a position that is $518.
New opportunity: one name survived, and it came from ring 2 — ZTS (Zoetis), animal health, 10.1x forward, −53.6% off its high, zero AI-narrative exposure, and it fills the only genuine sector hole in the portfolio. Ring 1 came up empty and is reported as falsified.
Part 1 — Every Mover, With Its Catalyst
Sorted by absolute move. All prices are 8/05 close.
| Ticker | Price | Today | Held? | Catalyst — verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDC | $26.23 | −23.7% | — | Q2 beat, Q3 guide gutted it. Adj EPS $0.69 vs $0.55 est, revenue $410M vs $396M — then guided Q3 recurring revenue −2 to −4% YoY and total revenue −4 to −6%, with Q3 EPS $0.55-0.59 vs $0.62 consensus. FY26 EPS raised to $2.65-2.73. A beat on the quarter, a shrinking subscription base in the guide. |
| SHOP | $144.24 | +17.0% | — | Q2 blowout. Revenue $3.58B +34%, GMV $115.6B +32%, EPS $0.42 vs $0.39, FCF $654M (18% margin). Q3 guided to low-30s% growth vs 26.3% expected. Management flagged AI-driven orders tripling. |
| QLYS | $183.25 | +13.8% | 6sh | Q2 beat + raise, new 12-month high. EPS $1.98 vs $1.78, revenue $182.2M vs $178.6M. FY26 guide raised to $732-738M (from $721-727M) and EPS to $7.74-7.88 vs $7.16 consensus. New AI "InstaScan" scanless-scanning capability. ⚠️ The watchlist had this earnings date wrong — it said 8/10. |
| DT | $50.86 | +11.3% | 14sh | Q1 FY27 beat + raise + CFO exit. Adj EPS $0.48 vs $0.44, revenue $554.5M +16% vs $549.3M. FY27 EPS guided $1.97-1.99 vs $1.95. Annualized logs consumption nearly doubled in two quarters to $200M — AI workloads pulling enterprises onto observability. ⚠️ CFO Jim Benson is stepping down. |
| TRI | $98.61 | −9.7% | 22sh | Q2 print. C$1.41 EPS on C$2.78B revenue. Fell as low as −9.4% intraday. This is the name whose written break trigger just got tested — see queue below. |
| CDW | $140.10 | −9.0% | — | Beat the headline, lost on margin. Adj EPS $2.91 vs $2.79, revenue $6.57B vs $6.2B, +10% YoY — then fell as much as −22.5% pre-open on a profitability squeeze plus an executive departure. |
| AMD | $482.05 | −7.0% | ~15sh | Record Q2, soft Q3 guide. Beat on the quarter; Q3 revenue guidance disappointed a market positioned for more. NVIDIA rose ~4% the same session on a SpaceX design nod — a share-of-wallet read, not a sector move. |
| GOOGL | $362.43 | −4.0% | 5.4sh | Two things at once. (1) Jeff Dean is leaving Alphabet to found Discovery Loop — one of the earliest employees and the architect of 15 years of AI strategy. (2) SpaceX fell 7.3% and its post-IPO lock-up expires tomorrow, 8/06, with >900M shares unlockable. ⭐ The 8/04 GOOGL file predicted this exact scare and called it "the likeliest entry." |
| ANET | $197.31 | +3.6% | 1.5sh | Sector strength, no company news found. |
| APP | $417.80 → ~$351 AH | −0.45% → −16% AFTER HOURS | 1.24sh | ⭐ QUIET ALL SESSION, THEN CRATERED ON THE PRINT. Q2 revenue $1.924B, +52.8% YoY vs ~$1.935B est (−0.6% miss); adj EPS $3.76 BEAT $3.67; Q3 guide $2.055-2.085B vs ~$2.068B (−0.6% at midpoint). Low of $324.93 (−22%) in the 16:00 bar, ~$40B of equity value at the lows. Now below the $359.00 52-week low. ⚠️ The reaction is an order of magnitude larger than the miss — see the correction block at the top. |
Market backdrop: S&P 500 and Dow set fresh record highs on Middle East deal hopes; the Nasdaq lagged, dragged by AMD and SpaceX alone. No macro catalyst — the rate risk flagged on 8/04 did not move today either way.
Part 2 — The /analyze Queue, Ranked
Ranked by decision value per token, not by how interesting the company is.
| # | Ticker | Ring | Price | Fwd P/E | Off High | Tgt vs spot | Why it's the queue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APP | 0 | ~$351 AH | ~16.3x | −52.9% | stale — cuts coming | Held, never analyzed, −16% post-print on a 0.6% miss, now below its 52wk low |
| 2 | ZTS 🆕 | 2 | $74.39 | 10.1x | −53.6% | +48.9% | New. Fills the healthcare hole. Zero AI exposure |
| 3 | DT | 0 | $50.86 | 22.4x | −4.5% | −5.8% | Held, never analyzed, sitting on a stale trim line |
| 4 | TRI | 0 | $98.61 | ~26x | −43.5% | — | Held, break trigger just tested by today's print |
| 5 | AMD | 0 | $482.05 | 32.2x | −17.6% | +20.1% | Held ~$7.2K, never analyzed, stale trim zone |
| — | CDW | 0 | $140.10 | ~13x | −10.8% | — | Wait. Still 12% above the $115-125 zone |
| — | TDC | 0 | $26.23 | ~9.9x | — | — | Trap — see below. Do not spend the tokens |
1 · APP — AppLovin ⭐ the highest-value analysis on this list
Run /analyze APP tomorrow (8/6), with the print in hand. ✅ The print has now landed and
the stock is −16% at ~$351 — see the correction block at the top of this file. The analysis is
now more urgent, not less: a 0.6% revenue miss on 52.8% growth, with an EPS beat, produced a
−22% low and pushed the stock below its 52-week low. The forward multiple compressed
19.4x → ~16.3x in one session.
The two questions the analysis must separate: (1) is 52.8% growth decelerating in a way the guide is admitting and the market front-ran, or (2) is this an expectations reset on a business that still compounds? A 0.6% miss cannot distinguish them — the segment detail and the Axon / e-commerce split can.
The position problem, stated plainly. The watchlist carries APP under 🔒 Held — No Action with the note "+1010%. Let it run. Trim $650+." That instruction is written as though a real position exists. The position is 1.240761 shares — about $518. For scale, the Beta account alone holds 76 QQQ shares worth roughly $54,500. APP is not a holding, it is a souvenir, and "let it run" has been doing the work of a decision for a long time. The honest question is not whether to trim at $650 — it is whether this deserves to be a position at all.
What the numbers say before any analysis is run:
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FY25) | $5.48B | +70% YoY; 3yr CAGR 24.8% (2023's $1.84B reflects the games divestiture — don't read it as a decline) |
| FCF (FY22→FY25) | $412M → $998M → $2.07B → $3.94B | 3yr FCF CAGR 112.3% |
| Operating margin | 78% | Gross margin 88% |
| FCF/share | $11.53 | → 36.2x P/FCF at spot |
| Forward P/E | 19.35x | vs 36.3x trailing — the market expects earnings to nearly double |
| Shares (diluted) | 371.6M → 342.0M | −2.7%/yr; $2.19B of FY25 buybacks = 56% of FCF |
| Employees | 876 | $6.25M of revenue per employee |
| Consensus | strong_buy, mean target $656.20 | +57.1% to target |
The knock, and it is real. Beta 2.53 — this is the most volatile thing on the list. P/S 22.8x and P/B 59.5x. Debt/assets 48.8% with $3.54B of debt against $2.49B cash. The entire margin structure rests on Axon, a model whose workings are not externally auditable, and the growth story now depends on e-commerce advertising rather than the mobile gaming base that built it. Graham IV computes to $42.64 against a $417.80 price — treat it as void, not as a signal; the same buyback-hollowed-book artifact that voided it on GDDY applies here (BVPS $7.03).
What the analysis has to answer: whether 19.4x forward is a market that has stopped believing the e-commerce ramp, or a market that is correctly pricing the end of a one-model run.
2 · ZTS — Zoetis 🆕 the only genuinely new name that survived
Ring 2 — same sector classification as nothing else owned, and no shared demand driver with anything on the watchlist. This is the ring the method says is historically richest, and it is the only ring that produced a name today.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price / market cap | $74.39 / $31.19B |
| Forward P/E | 10.07x (12.2x trailing) |
| Off 52-week high | −53.6% ($160.48) — and $71.47 is the 52-week low, i.e. spot is 4% off the bottom |
| Dividend yield | 2.74%, payout 33% |
| Gross / operating margin | 72% / 37% |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.73x |
| Beta | 0.73 |
| Consensus | buy, target $110.81 (+48.9%) |
Why it earns the slot: the portfolio's only healthcare exposure is NVO, whose thesis the watchlist declares dead (three failed Phase 3s in nine months, do-not-add). Animal health is a genuinely different business — 72% gross margins, companion-animal spending that historically does not track enterprise IT or datacenter capex, and a 0.73 beta against a book that is otherwise loaded with 1.0-2.5 beta software and semis. Revenue growth is only +3% YoY — this is a compounder that stopped compounding, which is exactly why it is at 10x.
⚠️ Apply pitfall-dyt-inverts-when-price-caused-the-yield before crediting the yield. The
2.74% against a 0.95% five-year average is a 2.9x ratio, and the price fell 54% — nearly
all of that yield expansion is the denominator, not the dividend. The DYT signal here is a
question, not a buy case. The /analyze must decompose it.
3 · DT — Dynatrace
Held across two brokerages (4 sh Schwab + 10 sh Fidelity), never analyzed, no conviction score ever issued. It jumped +11.3% today on a clean beat-and-raise and now trades at $50.86 — which trips the watchlist's "Trim $50+" instruction.
That trim line should not be acted on. It sits next to an add zone of "$31-35" on a stock
whose 52-week low is $31.64 — the zones were set against a much smaller company and were never
refreshed. This is pitfall-stale-entry-zone-suppresses-a-name running in the opposite
direction: a stale zone about to trigger a sale into a raised guide. The /analyze exists to
replace both numbers with something underwritten.
The two things it must resolve: (1) the CFO transition — Jim Benson stepping down the same day as a beat is a fact that needs a read, benign or not; (2) whether logs consumption doubling to a $200M annualized run-rate in two quarters is durable AI-driven expansion or a one-time migration. At 22.4x forward with a consensus target of $47.91 — 5.8% below spot — the sell-side already thinks this is done.
4 · TRI — Thomson Reuters
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Recommendation: run /earnings TRI, not /analyze TRI. The full analysis is 13 days old
(7/23) and the moat work does not need redoing — what is needed is one number checked against
one written condition. A full pipeline here is spending an analysis to answer a yes/no question.
5 · AMD
~14.9 shares across Beta taxable and the Roth (≈$7,180) — a real position with zero analysis coverage and no conviction score. Fell −7.0% on a record quarter because the Q3 guide missed an aggressive bar. 32.2x forward, EV/EBITDA 105x, mean target $579 (+20.1%), consensus strong_buy.
The watchlist entry says "Above trim $360+" — the stock is at $482 and has been above that line for months without action. Same stale-zone problem as DT. Lower priority than APP only because AMD is a well-understood business; the gap here is a number, not knowledge.
Traps, Named
TDC — cheap multiple on a shrinking recurring base. After −23.7% it is $26.23 against a
$20-22 entry zone, and the temptation is to call it close. The guide is the problem, not the
price: Q3 recurring revenue guided −2 to −4% and total revenue −4 to −6%. The 🔧
Re-Rating sleeve requires "a specific fixable problem and a date or metric that closes the
gap." A recurring-revenue base in decline is neither specific nor dated. Rated [5] and it
should stay there. Do not spend an /analyze on it.
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
SHOP after +17%. Genuinely excellent print. Watchlist FV is $82-138 with an entry of $96-108; spot is $144.24 at 141x trailing earnings. Right business, wrong price, and the gap got wider today, not narrower.
CDW is not yet a buy. The −9% (−22.5% pre-open) is the most violent move in a tracked name, but $140.10 is still 12% above the $115-125 zone. It beat on both lines — the sell-off is about margin plus an executive departure, which is a quality question, not a price question. Watch, don't analyze.
Falsified Hypotheses
Ring 1 — "CDW's collapse signals a channel-wide enterprise-IT reseller squeeze; buy the collateral damage." FAILED, and the falsification is clean.
The mechanism was plausible: CDW's stated problem is a profitability squeeze, and component cost inflation (the memory shock already documented on MU, IBM and AMZN in this repo) would hit every value-added reseller through the same channel. So the ring-1 candidates were checked.
| Ticker | Price | 52wk High | Off high | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSIT (Insight) | $140.28 | $141.91 | −1.1% | Not dislocated — within 1.1% of its 52-week high on the same session |
| SNX (TD SYNNEX) | $263.07 | — | — | 19.0x trailing / 12.3x forward — not repriced |
Conclusion: CDW's fall is idiosyncratic, not a channel repricing. If the market believed the reseller model was broken, NSIT would not be sitting 1.1% off its high on the day CDW dropped 22% pre-open. The executive departure is doing more of the work than the margin line. Ring 1 yielded nothing, so per discipline rule §3 the spiral stopped at ring 2.
Spiral Summary
| Ring | Membership test applied | Searched | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 · Epicentre | Names that moved hard today, held or watched | APP, TDC, SHOP, QLYS, DT, TRI, CDW, AMD, GOOGL, ANET | 4 queue entries — but all are coverage gaps in names already owned, not new ideas. Exactly the "epicentre is often trap" pattern: the moves are informative, the stocks mostly aren't buyable |
| 1 · Adjacent function | Sells to/through the epicentre — the IT reseller channel behind CDW | NSIT, SNX, CNXN, ARW | EMPTY — falsified above. No collateral damage exists to buy |
| 2 · Same sector, different cycle | Shares a classification but not a demand driver | ZTS, PSN, TYL, PEGA, HLNE, OLED, CSGP, NKE | ⭐ 1 survivor: ZTS. The payoff ring again |
| 3-6 | — | Not searched | Stopped per §3 — ring 1 was empty and the user's request is scoped to /analyze targets, not breadth |
Ring 2 rejects, recorded so they aren't re-derived: PSN (Parsons, 13.9x fwd, −46.6% off high) — operating margin 2.0% and revenue −1% YoY; LDOS already occupies this exact slot at 10.6x with an [8.0] and an 86% three-year operating-income gain, so PSN is the worse expression of a position already held. TYL / PEGA / HLNE / OLED / CSGP / NKE — screened but not carried forward; none clears the §1 health bar on a first pass and none fills a portfolio gap.
Portfolio Fit
APP — already held; this is a sizing decision, not a new exposure. It sits in the same Communication Services / advertising space as TTD (down −79%, do-not-add) and thematically adjacent to META. Increasing APP concentrates adtech; the counter-argument is that at 1.24 shares there is nothing to concentrate.
ZTS — genuinely uncorrelated, and that is the point. It touches none of the Concentration
Map clusters: not AI-capex, not cyber, not financial data, not the ACN/CTSH/EPAM/IBM services
cluster, not China. 0.73 beta against a book that is otherwise 1.0-2.5. Sleeve placement
would be 🏛 Evergreen Compounders if the moat survives, 🔧 Re-Rating if the 10x multiple
is the whole thesis — the /analyze decides which.
DT / AMD / TRI — all held. Zero new exposure; the work is replacing stale zones with underwritten ones.
Next Steps
/analyze APP— tomorrow, 8/6, after tonight's print. Highest value on the list: a held position, never analyzed, no conviction score, at 19.4x forward with a fresh quarter in hand. Size the position question explicitly — $518 is not a position./analyze ZTS— the one new name. Must decompose the yield perpitfall-dyt-inverts-when-price-caused-the-yieldbefore crediting it./earnings TRI— not a full/analyze. One number against one written break trigger./analyze DT— replace the stale $31-35 / $50+ zones before the trim line fires on its own./analyze AMD— lowest urgency of the held gaps, but a ~$7.2K position with no file.- Watchlist corrections to make regardless: QLYS earnings date was recorded as 8/10; it printed 8/5. DT, AMD and APP zones are all stale.
⏳ Inside 24 hours: APP prints tonight · SpaceX lock-up expires 8/06 (>900M shares — the GOOGL entry scare the 8/04 file predicted, now underway at −4%) · NLCP Q2 8/6, 11:00 ET (watch AFFO/sh vs $1.75) · FISV Q2 8/6 (binary; do not add until organic ≥0%).
Sources
- Benzinga — Qualys shares jump after hours on strong Q2 results, raised guidance
- StockStory — Qualys beats Q2 CY2026 sales expectations, stock soars
- Seeking Alpha — Dynatrace pops on Q1 earnings beat, guidance; announces CFO transition
- Investing.com — Dynatrace stock climbs 8% on earnings beat and strong guidance
- StockStory — Teradata's Q2 CY2026 sales beat estimates but stock drops 17%
- Benzinga — Why is Teradata stock falling on Wednesday?
- Seeking Alpha — Shopify skyrockets after posting +30% revenue and GMV growth
- Benzinga — Shopify says AI-driven orders are tripling as new buyers arrive nearly twice as fast
- FinancialContent — CDW delivers impressive Q2 CY2026 but stock drops 12.3%
- Quiver Quantitative — CDW falls as enterprise IT spending worries weigh on the stock
- Thomson Reuters — Q2 2026 earnings announcement, August 5 2026
- Markets Daily — Thomson Reuters shares down 9.4%
- Yahoo Finance — AMD drops 6% despite record quarter as NVIDIA gains 4% on SpaceX nod
- Spokesman — S&P 500, Dow at record highs on Mideast deal hopes; SpaceX, AMD drag
- TradingKey — US pre-market: Nvidia, Circle surge as SpaceX, AMD slump post-earnings
- Benzinga — AppLovin stock is wavering ahead of Q2 earnings report
- StockStory — What to expect from AppLovin's Q2 earnings
- Benzinga — AppLovin likely to report higher Q2 earnings; analysts revise forecasts
- TheStreet — Stock market today, Aug. 5 2026
Price and fundamental data: .mcp/fin.py / Yahoo Finance, 2026-08-05 close.