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Screen undervalued reits

Date: 2026-07-14 | Criteria: REITs at discount to NAV/history with durable AFFO, income + asymmetric upside | Scout + Fundamentals | Live prices via Public.com Prior run: screen-undervalued-reits-us-canada-2026-04-05.md — this refreshes the April names and adds US net-lease/industrial ideas not covered then (WPC, STAG).

⚠️ Data note: Yahoo Finance MCP offline this session. Prices live (Public.com); AFFO/NAV from Q1 2026 filings + web. Sector still trades cheap: average REIT ~13.7x P/FFO and ~15% discount to NAV per the State of REITs data — historically unusual, "cheap and unloved" but showing early signs of life.

What Changed Since April

The April shortlist ranked DIR-UN.TO, REXR, GRT-UN.TO, IIPR. Three months on:

April Pick Then Now (7/14) Status
REXR $33.12 $35.89 Still ~25% below NAV — thesis intact, mild move up
IIPR $50.21 $63.53 +27% — May 2026 note refinancing cleared; re-rating underway
COLD $11.48 $15.88 Up 38% on nothing — fundamentals still weak (AFFO -12% guide). Still avoid
DIR-UN.TO / GRT-UN.TO — (Canadian; not re-quoted this session — Public US-only) Still the top NAV-discount ideas; refresh via /analyze

Prices are live for the US names below.

Universe Screened (US, live 2026-07-14)

Ticker Company Sub-sector Price Yield ~P/AFFO vs NAV 2026 AFFO Verdict
WPC W.P. Carey Net lease (diversified) $72.00 ~5.2% ~13.7x ~disc +11% Q1, guide raised ✅ New Tier 1
REXR Rexford Industrial Infill SoCal industrial $35.89 ~5.0% ~19x ~-25% Flat (pause year) ✅ Still a buy
O Realty Income Net lease (triple-net) $63.99 ~5.6% ~13x modest disc Low-mid single ✅ Quality income anchor
VICI VICI Properties Gaming/experiential $26.39 ~6.6% ~13x ~-20% (DDM ~$33) +4.5%, guide raised ✅ Best-in-class ()
STAG STAG Industrial Industrial net lease $38.80 ~4.1% ~16x modest disc Mid single ⚠️ Cheaper industrial, lower growth
IIPR Innovative Industrial Cannabis net lease $63.53 ~12% ~9x implicit disc Refi cleared ⚠️ Speculative, re-rating
WPC vs peers — — — — — — — —
IRM Iron Mountain Records + data center $122.66 ~2.9% ~20x+ premium Strong grower ⚠️ Great biz, not cheap
EGP EastGroup Properties Sunbelt industrial $211.25 ~3.3% ~20x ~fair Mid-high single ⚠️ Quality compounder, priced
PSA Public Storage Self-storage $318.93 ~4.3% ~18x ~fair Low single ⚠️ Quality, fully valued
ARE Alexandria Life-science office $47.61 ~high ~7x deep disc AFFO contraction risk ❌ Value-trap risk
COLD Americold Cold storage $15.88 ~8% ~9x deep disc -12% guide ❌ Distressed, not cheap

Filtered Shortlist

✅ TIER 1 — Best Risk/Reward

#1 — WPC | W.P. Carey — the strongest new idea this screen. - $72.00, ~5.2% yield, AFFO +11.1% in Q1 2026 ($1.30 vs $1.17), full-year guide raised to $5.16–5.26, and the board hiked the dividend 4.5% to $3.72/yr. ~$1.1B of 2026 investment activity already deployed. - Why it stands out: this is the cleanest combination of value + growing income on the list. Post-office-spinoff WPC is a focused, diversified net-lease compounder trading at ~13.7x AFFO (below quality net-lease norms) with double-digit AFFO growth and a freshly-raised dividend — a rare pairing. The April screen had no US net-lease name; this fills the gap better than O on growth. - Entry: attractive at $72; add on any dip to $65–68. Worth a full /analyze — top candidate to anchor a REIT income sleeve. Trim consideration $90+.

#2 — REXR | Rexford Industrial — April pick, thesis unchanged. - $35.89, ~5.0% yield, still ~25% below NAV. Dominant infill Southern California industrial — a structurally unreplicable land position (no greenfield supply in LA/OC/Inland Empire). 2026 is a deliberate pause year (buybacks + repositioning); 2027 NOI ramps as projects deliver. - Entry: $30–36; current price at the upper-middle of the zone. Still the best pure-industrial NAV-discount name in the US.

#3 — O | Realty Income — the quality income anchor / AHRT replacement. - $63.99, ~5.6% yield, 30-yr dividend-increase streak, monthly payer, ~13x AFFO. Not a re-rating bet — a bond-proxy compounder. Already flagged in the watchlist as the quality upgrade to replace AHRT (dead capital). Above the old $50–55 entry, so a bit rich, but any rate-driven dip toward $58–60 is a clean add for the income sleeve.

⚠️ TIER 2 — Good Businesses, Pay Up / Conditional

  • STAG Industrial ($38.80) — Cheaper industrial (~16x AFFO, 4.1% yield) than REXR/EGP, monthly payer, granular single-tenant book. But lower growth and less of a moat than REXR's infill scarcity. A "value industrial" complement, not a first choice.
  • IIPR ($63.53) — The April speculative pick worked (+27%); the May note refinancing that gated it has cleared. Still a ~12% yield / ~9x AFFO cannabis name with binary regulatory upside and tenant-concentration risk. Small speculative position only; the easy money is partly made.
  • EGP / PSA / IRM — All high-quality (EastGroup Sunbelt industrial, Public Storage, Iron Mountain's data-center pivot) but trading at ~18–20x+ AFFO. No margin of safety; watch for pullbacks, don't initiate here.

❌ TIER 3 — Avoid

  • ARE | Alexandria ($47.61) — Optically cheap (~7x AFFO, deep NAV discount) but life-science office faces declining occupancy and real AFFO-contraction risk. Classic value-trap setup — cheap for a reason.
  • COLD | Americold ($15.88) — Ran +38% off April lows on no fundamental improvement; 2026 AFFO still guided -12%, occupancy weak, $4.2B debt. Avoid.

How This Changes the Watchlist

Current REIT sleeve: VICI , NLCP , AHRT (exit), O [—] watch.

Recommended action: 1. Add WPC to watchlist [—, pending /analyze] — best new REIT idea: value + double-digit AFFO growth + just-raised dividend. Prioritize a full /analyze on it. 2. Add REXR to watchlist [—] — carry the April thesis forward; ~25% NAV discount on irreplaceable SoCal industrial. /analyze recommended before entry. 3. Execute the O-for-AHRT swap — O at $63.99 is the quality replacement for dead-capital AHRT; add on dips to $58–60. 4. VICI — hold/add — DDM fair value ~$33 (+22%) + 6.6% yield, in watchlist add zone $26.50–28 (now $26.39). Core income hold; no change. 5. Fill the gaps: current sleeve has zero diversified net-lease and zero non-cannabis industrial. WPC + REXR fix both.

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