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Watchlist scan
Market context: S&P 500 7,515.47 (−0.8%), VIX 17.16 (+14%). Cooler-than-expected CPI print; index near all-time highs, low-vol regime. Discounts are scarce in this tape — which makes the handful of watchlist names that fell into buy zones stand out, and makes the names that ran away worth trimming, not chasing.
Scan scope: All ~90 watchlist tickers, real-time quotes (Public.com), catalyst sweep (WebSearch), valuation cross-check (roic.ai). Yahoo Finance MCP was not connected this session — quotes/ratios sourced from Public.com + roic.ai instead.
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
🟢 ACT NOW
Multiple signals converging: in/below buy zone + intact thesis + (often) a near-term catalyst. Sorted by conviction, then discount.
| Ticker | Conv | Now | Buy Zone | Status | Catalyst | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BR | [8.5] | $146.29 | $150–162 | BELOW zone | — | Financial-infra backbone (42% FCF CAGR), now cheaper than its own add zone. Initiate. Trim $240+. |
| AVGO | [8.5] | $391.81 | $360–420 | IN zone | — | Highest-conviction name on list. AI XPU 70% share, $56B FY26 AI guide intact. Initiate 2–4 shares. Strong buy $340–360. |
| ADBE | [7.5] | $220.94 | $200–230 (strong-buy) | IN strong-buy | Next earn ~Sept | Q2 (Jun 11) beat: rev $6.62B +13%, Firefly ARR ~$300M +50% QoQ — thesis (>20% growth) intact; sell-off is AI-fear repricing, not a miss. 11x fwd P/E, 89% gross margin, ROIC 41%. Best clean risk/reward on the list. |
| LEU | [7.5] | $158.08 | $145–170 | IN zone | — | Only U.S.-licensed HALEU producer, $3.9B backlog to 2040. Messy EPS through the Piketon build = the toll-bridge entry window. Add. Strong buy $130–145. |
| CTSH | [6.5] | $42.93 | ~$43 | IN zone | Earnings Jul 29 | Cheapest IT-services value play (7x fwd, 3.1% yield, $2B buyback). Real moat erosion (margin −220bps/3yr) so stage in, don't overweight — correlates with ACN/EPAM. Add $35–38 on weakness. |
| BAH | [6.5] | $63.87 | $60–65 (strong-buy) | IN strong-buy | Earnings Jul 24 | Clearance moat (72% cleared, wins 92% recompetes), $38B backlog, 2.9% growing yield. But FY27 is a revenue-decline "transition year" → see ▶ LDOS below, a cleaner expression of the same thesis. |
▶ Better-alternative picks (the "find me something superior" ask)
Two names outside the current watchlist that offer a better moat-relative-to-valuation than weaker watchlist entries in the same field. Both recommended as new watchlist adds and Beta-portfolio candidates.
| Ticker | Now | Valuation | Why it beats the watchlist name it replaces |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDOS (Leidos) | $106.49 | 14x TTM P/E (~12x fwd), 9.5x P/FCF, 11x EV/EBITDA, 1.5x EV/S | Upgrade to BAH. Same govt-IT/defense clearance moat, but LDOS is the scale leader ($17.2B rev vs BAH $12B), has the highest op margin (12.2%) and FCF margin (9.5%) in the peer group, 31% ROE, and is growing (+35% stock TTM) while BAH shrinks (−23%, FY27 revenue decline). Cheaper on P/E and not staring at a transition year. Only caveat: acquisitive balance sheet (negative tangible book — goodwill). |
| FDS (FactSet) | $251.93 | ~11.5x fwd P/E (12.1x trough), 9.3x P/FCF, 11x EV/EBITDA | Better moat-for-price than IT/Gartner and cheaper than every quality peer. 95% client retention, proprietary recurring-revenue data moat, 5.9% ASV growth — repriced from a $457 high to ~$250 on the same AI-disruption fear hitting the whole data complex. Compare peers: MCO 27x, MSCI 31x, FICO $1,224/sh. FDS is the cheapest wide-moat financial-data franchise on the board, and its moat is intact (retention 95%) vs Gartner's collapsing contract-value growth (+1% YoY, −$56M net Q). |
(Both warrant a full /analyze before sizing, but the moat-to-valuation case is already strong enough to add to the watchlist and start a starter position.)
🟡 WATCH CLOSELY
Approaching zones, pivotal earnings imminent, or unscored names now sitting at/below entry that deserve a fresh /analyze.
| Ticker | Conv | Now | Zone | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ | [7.5] | $309.62 | $310–345 | At entry | ⏸ Earnings Jul 20. UBS models US SSS −1.5% vs consensus +0.3%; Q1 was +0.9%. Thesis-break = SSS <0% for 2 straight Q. Wait for the print before initiating — 6 days out with real downside risk. |
| FI | [5.5] | $49.87 | bear floor $52–65 | Below bear floor | ⏸ Earnings Jul 29 (binary). Q1 organic −4%; FY guide needs +6–8% H2 to hit +1–3% (aggressive). Leadership still unsettled. Do not add until Jul 29 confirms organic ≥0%. Insiders bought $48–51 in Jun (golden flag). |
| ACN | [7.0] | $134.90 | add $155–175, stop $145 | ⚠ Broke $145 stop | AI-services repricing (same theme as CTSH/EPAM) pushed it through the hard stop. Not a fresh buy — review the held position; confirm bookings/guidance intact at Q3. |
| VEEV | [8.0] | $193.65 | $155–168 | Above entry | Life-sciences vertical-cloud monopoly ran up. Wait for $155–168 pullback. |
| MANH | [8.0] | $158.13 | $148–155 (stage 1) | Just above | Supply-chain SaaS leader. Sits just over stage-1; a small dip re-arms the ladder. |
| WDAY | [8.0] | $139.64 | $110–130 | Above zone | Moved up +10% off the watchlist mark; no longer in zone. |
| GPN | [7.5] | $75.78 | $62–70 | Just above | Recovered off the June overreaction; wait for $62–70 or re-confirm at earnings. |
| SHOP | [7.5] | $125.32 | $96–108 | Above entry | Ran +19%. Watch Q2 (Aug). |
| CHKP | [7.5] | $135.82 | $110–125 | Above zone | Bounced out of the active buy zone. |
| ZS | [6.5] | $151.86 | $120–140 | Above entry | Analyzed today (2026-07-14). Fairly valued, not cheap; don't chase. Cyber sleeve already deep. |
| UEC | [6.5] | $10.29 | $8.50–10.50 | IN zone | Pairs with LEU (mine→enrichment). In entry; size small/speculative. |
| IT | [6.0] | $134.73 | $130–145 | IN zone but GATED | Gate: contract-value must post positive net Q additions 2 straight Q first. FDS is the better data-moat expression (above). |
| EFX | [—] | $167.97 | $165–175 | IN zone | Credit-bureau oligopoly, FCF inflected. Run /analyze. |
| CDW | [—] | $140.34 | $155–170 | BELOW zone | Picks-and-shovels enterprise IT, now cheaper than entry. Run /analyze. |
| PTC | [—] | $123.52 | $130–140 | BELOW zone | Industrial IoT/PLM, insulated from AI-SaaS disruption, 28% FCF CAGR. Run /analyze. |
| OBDC | [—] | $11.03 | $14.50–15.50 | BELOW zone | Below entry → higher yield now. Verify NAV/coverage vs MAIN before adding BDC exposure. |
| BMY | [—] | $58.09 | — | Cheap (9.5x fwd, 4.2% yield) | Cheapest quality pharma; pipeline-vs-patent-cliff. Run /analyze. |
| ITRI | [—] | $83.45 | $72–82 | Just above | Smart-grid turnaround; a dip re-enters. |
⚪ HOLD ON LIST / FULLY VALUED — ran past their zones (no action / trim)
These moved well beyond entry and are not buys here. Several are now trim candidates. Entry prices on the watchlist are stale and need a refresh.
| Ticker | Now | Old zone | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLYS | $161.48 | "best value" @ $88.71 | 🔺 +82% since watchlist. Above trim ($145+). The "best value in portfolio" note is stale — this is now a TRIM, not a buy. |
| ADP | $245.82 | buy $195–210 | +22%. Out of zone. Hold; trim $280+. |
| V | $356.67 | add $290–305 | Approaching trim $380. Hold. |
| TWLO | $217.89 | trim $175+ | Above trim → trim candidate. |
| ETN | $414.30 | entry $300–320 | Way past. Wait. |
| EMR | $135.88 | entry $105–118 | Past entry. Wait. |
| NTAP | $172.39 | entry $90–100 | Stale entry; ran. |
| TEL | $200.64 | entry $130–145 | Ran. |
| AMAT | $595.78 | entry $170–190 | Ran hard (AI capex). |
| HUBB / AME | $478 / $232.98 | $300–320 / $170–185 | Both ran. |
| UNH / ALL | $424.89 / $251.88 | $220–250 / $175–190 | Recovered/ran past. |
| TGT | $133.30 | $90–105 | Past entry. |
| FFIV / LFUS / BDC | $427 / $415 / $104 | $200–215 / $155–175 / $45–52 | Entries badly stale — all roughly doubled. Refresh or drop. |
| CCJ / CEG / BWXT | $91.49 / $257.33 / $179.30 | — | Nuclear complex re-rated; run /analyze to set fresh entries (priority: CEG, BWXT). |
Other holds unchanged: GOOGL $359.60, META $659.10, MSFT $385.08, APP $447.35 (trim into strength), CRM $168.96, PANW $350.42, CRWD $208.49, RBRK $87.86, AMD $550.25, SNPS $427.55, INTC $108.09 (+83% — big move), QCOM $178.21, SPGI $437.77, TRI $93.02 (add zone $82–98 — still ok), MAIN $53.11 (add $50–54 — still ok), ARCC $18.80, VICI $26.35 (add zone — ok), NVO $49.21 (recovered +26%), NOW $105.02 (buy zone — ok), SAP $155.33 (buy zone — ok), DOCU $49.29, GWRE $140.12, SNOW $277.49 (ran +97%), CVLT $148.33, TEAM $89.61, PATH $11.91, PCTY $122.80 (ran), OKTA $152.83 (ran +94%), ORCL $129.16 (still buy zone $140–150? now below — see flags), DT $44.69, ANET $181.26.
🚩 Flags & Notable Catches
- SANM $206.01 — watchlist says "EXIT, $13 dead capital, tariff headwinds" at a ~$55 mark. It's now $206 (≈+274%) — Sanmina re-rated hard on AI/data-center manufacturing. DO NOT act on the stale exit note — re-analyze before doing anything. Likely the single most out-of-date line on the list.
- ORCL $129.16 — watchlist "still in buy zone $140–150" but price is now below $130, and the OpenAI/Stargate concentration risk is live. It's cheaper than the stated zone but the risk profile worsened — review, don't reflexively add.
- EPAM $84.10 — down further (−44% vs the ~$150 watchlist mark). Ukraine + AI-services overhang compounding. Tiny position; decide hold-vs-exit.
- INTC $108.09 — +83% vs watchlist ($65.27 → wait, that was already +83.5% gain; now $108 is another leg up). Alert-rated; if held, the trim thesis is well in the money.
- AHRT $7.07 / SMR $8.51 — both standing EXIT flags confirmed. AHRT = dead capital; SMR → redeploy into LEU. Recommend removal from active watch after exit.
Recommendations
Top 3 "Act Now" for the fresh Beta portfolio
- ADBE $220.94 — wide moat (89% GM, 41% ROIC), in strong-buy zone, thesis intact (Firefly +50% QoQ), no negative catalyst pending. The cleanest quality-at-a-discount on the board.
- LDOS $106.49 (new) — best risk/reward in govt-IT/defense: cheaper than BAH, higher margins, and growing while BAH contracts. The superior expression of the clearance-moat thesis.
- BR $146.29 — [8.5] conviction financial-infrastructure compounder trading below its own add zone. Plus AVGO (in-zone, highest conviction) as a co-top pick. - Value-moat standout: FDS $251.93 (new) — the cheapest intact wide-moat data franchise available; better than owning Gartner here.
Top 3 unscored → run /analyze
- PTC ($123.52, below entry, AI-disruption-insulated industrial software)
- CDW ($140.34, below entry, picks-and-shovels IT distribution)
- EFX ($167.97, in entry, credit-bureau oligopoly with FCF inflection) — BMY honorable mention (cheapest quality pharma).
Add to watchlist
- LDOS (Infrastructure/Govt-IT) and FDS (Financial Services / data) — the two better-alternative picks above.
Remove / resolve
- AHRT — exit, then remove. SMR — exit → LEU, then remove.
- Refresh stale entries on FFIV, LFUS, BDC, TEL, NTAP, AMAT, HUBB, AME, UNH, ALL, TGT, CCJ (all ran far past their targets).
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Sources: Public.com (real-time quotes), roic.ai (valuation multiples), and: Yahoo Finance — market close 7/14, Booz Allen backlog/guidance, BAH earnings 7/24, Adobe Q2/Firefly, Cognizant earnings 7/29, Domino's earnings 7/20, Fiserv Q2 preview, Leidos peer/valuation, FactSet moat/valuation.