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Watchlist scan
Scope note: this is a light scan — a price-vs-zone sweep off the price cache refreshed
minutes ago (during today's airline /analyze), not a full re-derivation. The Sentiment news
sweep and the five sleeve-vacancy screens were skipped by design; run a full /watchlist-scan
for those. Prior full-ish scan: watchlist-scan-2026-08-27.md.
Market context
SPY $769.35 (−0.4% since the 8/27 scan), QQQ $716.43, VIX 14.43 (still calm), 10yr 4.72% (+5bp). Regime essentially unchanged from the 8/27 "Act III / SaaSpocalypse unwound" note — no rewrite. Rates still have not resolved lower; anything underwritten on a 2026 cut still needs the caveat.
⭐ IN ZONE / BELOW ENTRY — conviction-sorted (19)
Thesis intact, price at or below the written entry band. The act-now shortlist.
| Ticker | Conv | Price | Entry | Off 52wk high | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 8.0 | $368.79 | $360-420 | −25% | Low-band; ⏳ Q3 prints ~Sep 2 — buy is into an event. |
| LEU | 7.8 | $175.78 | $170-195 | −62%* | Nuclear-fuel; high beta, check the −62% is a split/again artifact before acting. |
| KLAC | 7.5 | $175.54 | $165-190 | −43% | AI-capex; same bucket as AVGO — own one at size. |
| ACM | 6.5 | $69.17 | $60-72 | −49% | 8/28 add — bounded legal charge, record backlog. |
| CRUS | 6.5 | $108.48 | $100-120 | −40% | 8/30 add — net-cash FCF compounder, Apple concentration. |
| DECK | 6.5 | $87.76 | $80-95 | −30% | 8/28 add — 11.5x for 34% ROIC, tariff/HOKA watch. |
| TMUS | 6.5 | $181.37 | $165-185 | −30% | 8/28 add — below own EV/EBITDA floor, guidance rising. |
| XYL | 6.5 | $111.31 | $100-115 | −28% | 8/28 add — water infra, CFO-exit selloff. |
| STZ | 6.5 | $130.69 | $125-140 | −22% | 8/28 add — Corona/Modelo moat, tariff fear. |
| OLED | 6.5 | $82.98 | $76-88 | −46% | 8/28 add — PHOLED monopoly, CEO bought at $92-94. |
| MZTI | 6.5 | $114.84 | $100-120 | −39% | 8/28 add — 63yr Dividend King, GLP-1 headwind. |
| BKE | 6.5 | $43.43 | $40-44 | −30% | 8/28 add — debt-free, ~10% cash yield. |
| INGR | 6.0 | $104.62 | $95-108 | −20% | 8/28 add — ingredients, Tate & Lyle leverage. |
| ROL | 6.0 | $36.38 | $34-40 | −45% | 8/28 add — quality but still ~28x fwd. |
| CNM | 6.0 | $43.02 | $40-46 | −36% | 8/28 add — water distributor, margin-decay watch. |
| TME | 6.0 | $8.56 | $7.50-9.50 | −68% | 8/28 add — net-cash China audio ⚠️ADR. |
| VICI | 5.5 | $25.87 | $24-26.5 | −24% | held REIT; rate-duration factor. |
| FIS | 5.0 | $41.44 | $36-42 | −41% | conviction 5.0 is why it's cheap — pass unless re-earned. |
| MNSO | 5.0 | $10.33 | $9-11 | −60% | WATCH, not a buy — dividend uncovered ⚠️ADR. |
* LEU's −62%-off-high looks extreme — verify against a split/volatility artifact before sizing.
👀 WITHIN 5% ABOVE ENTRY — closing in (15)
One bad session from the zone; conviction-sorted.
| Ticker | Conv | Price | Entry | Above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDOS | 8.0 | $140.66 | $115-135 | +4.2% |
| INTU | 7.5 | $358.06 | $305-350 | +2.3% |
| EMR | 7.5 | $155.18 | $135-148 | +4.9% |
| DPZ | 7.0 | $350.00 | $305-335 | +4.5% |
| MAIN | 7.0 | $58.55 | $51-56 | +4.6% |
| DOX | 7.0 | $62.91 | $50-62 | +1.5% |
| RBRK | 6.5 | $93.05 | $75-90 | +3.4% |
| TSM | 6.5 | $417.52 | $340-400 | +4.4% |
| BWXT | 6.5 | $152.85 | $135-150 | +1.9% |
| NVDA | 6.5 | $217.55 | $195-215 | +1.2% |
| GDDY | 6.5 | $97.70 | ≤$95 | +2.8% |
| GPN | 6.5 | $91.82 | $78-88 | +4.3% |
| HON | 6.0 | $217.43 | $190-210 | +3.5% |
| CALX | 6.0 | $37.49 | $32-37 | +1.3% |
| DKS | 6.0 | $135.09 | $115-130 | +3.9% |
✂️ Trim zone — quiet
Only TSLX ($18.74) and ARCC ($19.95) sit near their BDC trims, both ~1.5% below — no action. No urgent sells: the 8/27 fixed-dollar trim breaches (VEEV, TGT, PCTY, RBRK, SAP…) were converted to valuation multiples, which now recompute above spot as intended.
Recommendations
Top 3 act-now (converging conviction + in-zone + off-high): 1. AVGO [8.0] — in-zone but gated on the ~Sep 2 Q3 print. Act deliberately before it or wait deliberately for it; don't drift a third month. Size the AI-capex bucket once (AVGO or KLAC/NVDA). 2. ACM [6.5] — cleanest of the 8/28 cohort still in-zone: a bounded, dateable legal charge with record backlog and insider buying, −49% off high. 3. DECK [6.5] — quality/price mismatch (11.5x for 34% ROIC); the tariff/HOKA risk is the reason, watch the ~late-Oct print.
Removals: none this scan. FIS [5.0] and MNSO [5.0] remain the two weakest in-zone names — cheap because nothing bids for them; keep as passes, not buys, until the [5.0] is re-earned.
Unscored / stale needing a full pass: none — the shortlist is freshly analyzed (most 8/28–8/30). The only staleness is LEU's −62%-off-high, which is a data-integrity check (split/volatility), not a conviction question.
New names / sleeve vacancies: not assessed — light scan skipped the screen phase. Run a full
/watchlist-scan to sweep the five sleeve screens for candidates.