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FDS · Analyze
Date: 2026-07-14 | Price: $251.93 | Sector: Financial Services (data/analytics) | Verdict conviction: [7.5] — BUY Triggered by /watchlist-scan as the "better moat-for-price" alternative to IT/Gartner.
Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $251.93 |
| FY2026 adj EPS guide | $17.25–$17.75 |
| Fwd P/E | ~14.4x (touched ~12x at the $185 low) |
| TTM P/E | 16.1x |
| P/FCF | 9.3x |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2x |
| Div yield | ~1.7% ($4.22) |
| ROE (2025) | 28.3% |
| ROIC | 17.1% |
| Gross / op / net margin | 52.7% / 32.2% / 25.7% |
1. Fundamentals — 🟢 elite quality
- Revenue $2.31B (rev/sh $61) → guided $2.45–2.47B FY2026. Recurring, subscription-based.
- FCF/sh $16.28, P/FCF 9.3x — high cash conversion.
- Margins best-in-class: gross 52.7%, op 32.2%, net 25.7%. (Gross ticked down 54→52.7% on AI-content investment; op margin held — worth monitoring but not alarming.)
- ROIC 17%, ROE 28% — durable high returns.
- Shares roughly flat (modest buyback); dividend payout ~27% (24yr dividend-grower). Negative tangible book (−$26.75/sh) = goodwill from data-asset acquisitions, typical for the category.
2. Moat — 🟢 wide & strengthening (vs Gartner's eroding)
FactSet is embedded workflow infrastructure for buy-side/sell-side/wealth — proprietary + aggregated data, analytics, and terminals with deep switching costs. The moat metrics are going the right way: - >95% ASV retention (client dollars stick). - Organic ASV +7.1% in Q3 2026, accelerating — 4th consecutive quarter of growth. - AI is a tailwind, not the feared disruptor: >10% of ASV growth now comes directly from AI SKUs; >90% of top-50 clients use 4+ AI products; AI-client ASV growing 50%+ faster than the rest.
This is the crux of the alternative-to-Gartner call. Both got repriced on the same "AI eats data/research" fear. But Gartner's contract-value growth collapsed to +1% with negative net quarterly adds, while FactSet's ASV is accelerating with 95% retention and AI actively monetizing. Same narrative discount, opposite fundamental reality.
Adversarial test: Bloomberg (bigger, pricier) and S&P/Capital IQ are the real competitors, not a startup — the three-way oligopoly and workflow lock-in keep a well-funded new entrant out. Risk is share-shift among incumbents, not disintermediation.
3. Valuation — cheap vs its own history and its peers
| Model | Output |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | ~14.4x (12x at the low) vs 10-yr history 25–35x |
| Peer comp | MCO 27x, MSCI 31x, FICO ~40x+ — FDS is the cheapest quality data name by a wide margin |
| FCF-based | FCF/sh $16.28 growing ~6–8%; 16–18x → $290–330 |
| Bogle | 1.7% yield + ~8–10% EPS growth + re-rating optionality |
Fair value range: $290–340 (base ~$310). Current $251.93 = ~20–35% upside, buying a compounder at a rare discount to its own decade-long multiple.
4. Sentiment — 🟢 improving
Q3 2026 beat, guiding to the high end of FY2026 ranges while cutting tech headcount ~10% (margin-supportive). AI monetization is the emerging positive narrative replacing the AI-disruption fear.
Verdict — BUY [7.5]
Great business at a rare discount. The cheapest wide-moat financial-data franchise available, with a moat that is accelerating (ASV +7.1%, 95% retention, AI monetizing) precisely while the market prices it for disruption. Strictly superior to holding Gartner/IT here — same sector discount, but FactSet's fundamentals are going up and to the right while Gartner's contract value is going the other way.
- Entry: attractive at $252; strong buy <$220 (near the $185 cycle low), add to $265. Trim $340+.
- Size: core-quality holding for Beta. Higher-quality/lower-risk than most of the watchlist — can anchor the "financial-data moat" sleeve alongside (or instead of) a fresh Gartner position.
- Key risks: (1) not dirt-cheap at 14x — a renewed AI-disruption narrative could re-compress the multiple near-term; (2) gross-margin drift from AI-content spend; (3) mid-single-digit ASV growth means it's a compounder, not a rocket — returns come from durability + modest re-rating, not hypergrowth.
- Thesis break: ASV growth decelerates below ~4% for 2 quarters, retention drops below 93%, or op margin breaks below 30%.
Sources: roic.ai (profitability, per-share, valuation), FactSet Q3 2026 call, FDS AI/guidance, moat/valuation. Public.com quote.