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Watchlist scan
Coverage: 91 tickers (all Watchlist.md entries, held + watch). Prices live 2026-07-28 via yfinance. Prior scan: 2026-07-14 (14 days). All deltas below are measured against that scan's prices.
Market Context
| Index | Level | 1wk | 1mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,413.18 | −0.6% | −0.4% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,932.08 | −2.3% | −3.4% |
| VIX | 18.67 | −0.5% | +5.8% |
| QQQ | $682.12 | −2.0% | −5.8% |
| SCHD | $33.43 | +2.1% | +4.7% |
| BTC | $64,327 | +0.4% | +7.0% |
The entire scan reduces to one fact: QQQ −5.8% and SCHD +4.7% in the same month. A 10.5-point spread in 30 days is not noise — it is a violent rotation out of growth/AI into value and dividends. Everything below is a consequence of it.
Two corroborating data points: - The AI-capex complex broke. SOX is −24% from its late-June high; global semiconductor market cap has shed $3.3 trillion since June 22. Named causes: profit-taking after a ~200% YTD run, Michael Burry's disclosed short in AMAT, Meta selling AI compute capacity, SK Hynix slowing HBM expansion, and Moonshot's Kimi K3 launch + reported Gemini 3.5 Pro setbacks reviving AI-ROI doubts. - The AI-disruption-to-services trade unwound. Every name this watchlist owned or watched because it had been repriced for AI disruption ripped: ACN +22%, PYPL +24%, TRI +20%, SAP +20%, EPAM +19%, CTSH +17%, ITRI +28%, BAH +15%, IT +16%.
Consequence for this watchlist: the 7/14 ACT NOW list was almost perfectly positioned for exactly this move — and almost none of it was executed. Most of those names have now run out of their buy zones. This scan is therefore shorter on opportunity and longer on zone-resets than the last one.
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
🟢 ACT NOW
Multiple signals converging: in or below buy zone, thesis intact, conviction ≥6.5.
| Ticker | Conv | Price | 7/14 | Δ | Zone | Fair Value | Catalyst | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | [8.5] | $380.91 | $391.81 | −2.8% | IN $360-420 | $520+ trim | Earnings 9/3 | BUY — the highest-conviction name still in its zone. Held up (−2.8%) while AMD −17% and AMAT −20%. 19.5x fwd, target $527. $56B FY26 AI guide intact. Strong buy $340-360 if the semi rout has another leg. |
| MSFT | [8.0] | $393.35 | $385.08 | +2.1% | IN $380-400 | $420-500 | ⚠️ Earnings 7/29 | BUY — but one-day timing decision. 20.3x fwd, −29% off high, target $557. Either take a starter today or wait one session for the print. Do not take a full position into the binary. |
| ADBE | [7.5] | $249.18 | $220.94 | +12.8% | IN $230-265 (full-buy) | $420+ trim | Earnings 9/10 | BUY — still the cleanest quality-at-a-discount. Ran out of strong-buy ($200-230) into full-buy. fwd P/E 9.07x, −33.8% off high, 89% gross margin. Even after +13% the multiple is absurd for the asset. |
| BR | [8.5] | $158.18 | $146.29 | +8.1% | IN $150-162 (top edge) | $206.50 tgt | Earnings 8/4 | BUY half now — the zone is nearly gone. 15.2x fwd, 2.55% yield, consensus buy. Ran +8% through the zone in two weeks; another 3% and it's out. |
| VICI | income | $27.10 | $26.35 | +2.8% | IN $26.50-28 | $33+ trim | Earnings 7/29 | BUY — income sleeve. 6.73% yield, 9.2x, target $33.12. Cheapest income add on the list and the rotation into dividends is a tailwind, not a headwind. |
| UEC | [6.5] | $9.44 | $10.29 | −8.3% | IN $8.50-10.50 | $15+ trim | Earnings 9/24 | BUY small / speculative sizing. Pulled back into the zone. Pairs with held LEU. Strong buy $7-8.50. Keep it small — pre-revenue-scale. |
Sizing note: AVGO + MSFT + ADBE are all large-cap tech. If the rotation has further to run, staging over 2-3 weeks beats a single entry. VICI and UEC are the only non-tech names in this bucket — that imbalance is itself a signal about where the list's opportunity sits.
🟡 WATCH CLOSELY
Approaching zones, awaiting a catalyst, or a meaningful sentiment shift since 7/14.
| Ticker | Conv | Price | 7/14 | Δ | Status | Catalyst | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | [7.5] | $190.80 | $192.12 | −0.7% | Top of $165-190 accumulate | 🔴 Reports TONIGHT 7/28 AMC | The 7/28 analysis said explicitly: do not buy before the print. Act tomorrow, not today. Risk is the FY27 estimate (memory = 15-25% of revenue), not the multiple. |
| SNPS | [—] | $383.82 | $427.55 | −10.2% | BELOW its $440-480 add zone | Earnings 8/26 | 🆕 New dislocation. EDA duopoly now trading under the add zone, −41% off high, 22.2x fwd, target $564. Held position, never formally analyzed. Top /analyze candidate. |
| META | — | $593.41 | $659.10 | −10.0% | Approaching $560-590 add | ⚠️ Earnings 7/29 | 16.0x fwd, target $825. A weak print puts it in the zone. Tiny position — room to build. |
| ORCL | [7] | $119.96 | $126.29 | −5.0% | Approaching $110-115 stage | Earnings 9/9 | −65% off high. Zone is close, but the 7/23 thesis (FCF −$23.7B → ~−$50B FY27, $156B debt, $20B dilutive ATM) means this only gets staged, hard-capped. |
| LDOS | [7.5] | $118.36 | $106.49 | +11.1% | Just above $115 add | Earnings 8/4 | 9.0x fwd, target $150.67. FV $140-170 = still 18-44% upside. A post-earnings dip to $115 re-arms it. |
| PTC | [7.0] | $127.51 | $123.52 | +3.2% | Just above $115 add | ⚠️ Earnings 7/29 | 14.8x fwd, target $174. FV $145-165. AI-insulated industrial software. Print could re-open the entry. |
| TCEHY | [7.5] | $57.75 | $61.92 | −6.7% | Below "fair at $62" | Earnings 8/12 | 11.2x fwd, target $97.44. Moving toward the low-$50s add. ⚠️ Execute via 0700.HK — the OTC ADR is thin. |
| RBRK | — | $71.45 | $87.86 | −18.7% | Fell back INTO $70-80 add | Earnings 9/8 | Technically actionable — but 109.8x fwd and the cyber sleeve is already 4-deep (PANW/CRWD/QLYS/RBRK). Add only if trimming another cyber name. |
| CTSH | [6.5] | $50.31 | $42.93 | +17.2% | Ran OUT of $45-60 zone | ⚠️ Earnings 7/29 | 8.1x fwd, target $60.38. The rally was sector reassessment, not a company fix — GM −220bps and ROIC −340bps are still true. A miss re-opens the entry. |
| CHKP | [5.0] | $137.64 | $135.60 | +1.5% | Above $105-115 buy | ⚠️ Earnings 7/30 | The scan's most information-dense print. Ignore EPS — watch product revenue, billings, and churn commentary. Raymond James' "churn is a NEW development" is the whole downgrade. |
| FISV | [5.5] | $54.21 | $49.87 | +8.7% | HOLD pending print | ⚠️ Earnings 8/6 (moved from 7/29) | Binary. 6.1x fwd, −62% off high. Do not add until Q2 confirms organic ≥0%. |
| QCOM | — | $162.88 | $178.21 | −8.6% | Fell below the $165 trim | ⚠️ Earnings 7/29 | No longer a trim candidate. 14.8x fwd, 2.16% yield, target $220.57. Add zone $120-132 still far below. Neither buy nor trim — just hold. |
| MAIN | [7.5] | $55.32 | $53.11 | +4.2% | Just above $50-54 | Earnings 8/6 | 8.14% yield. Premium BDC ran out of the zone. Wait for the pullback. |
| SANM | — | $172.43 | $206.01 | −16.3% | "Trim into strength" — strength faded | Reported 7/27 | Q3 FY26 beat (EPS $3.31 vs $2.83, revenue $3.46B at the high end) yet the stock is −16%. Revenue stepped down sequentially from Q2's $4.01B. Trim window is closing; 12.9x fwd, target $260. |
| DPZ | [7.5] | $350.47 | $309.62 | +13.2% | Ran OUT of $310-345 entry | Reported 7/20 | Revenue beat, EPS missed ($4.07 vs $4.17), US SSS +0.1% — weakest in over a year. Thesis break is SSS <0% for 2 straight Q; this was +0.1%. One more flat quarter breaks it. Downgrade watch. |
| GLW | [6.5] | $126.01 | $120.27 | +4.8% | Above $95-110 entry | Reported 7/28 | Analyzed today. Real optical transformation, but at fair value. Wait for the zone. |
| AMAT | [—] | $476.46 | $595.78 | −20.0% | Entry badly stale | Earnings 8/13 | −35.6% off high, 28.2x fwd, target $628. The semi-equipment drawdown may be creating the entry the 7/15 ASML/KLAC/LRCX compare was waiting for. Refresh via /analyze. |
| TSLX / OBDC | [6.5]/[6.0] | $17.68 / $11.02 | $17.15 / $11.03 | +3.1% / −0.1% | Both above add zones | Earnings 8/4 / 8/5 | TSLX add $15.00-15.75; OBDC add $9.50-10.50. Neither compelling. Income rotation is pushing BDC prices up, away from entries. |
🔴 SPECIAL SITUATION — PYPL
PYPL $58.32 (was $47.14 on 7/14, +23.7%).
Stripe and Advent International made a joint offer to acquire PayPal for over $53 billion — $60.50/share, ~28% premium to the prior close.
This is no longer a fundamentals position. The [5.5] conviction score, the suspended add zone, the branded-checkout erosion thesis — none of it governs the price now. The stock trades at $58.32 against a $60.50 bid, a ~3.7% spread, which is the market pricing meaningful deal risk (antitrust on a Stripe/PayPal combination is not a formality).
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
⚪ HOLD ON LIST — Ran Out of Range
These were actionable on 7/14 and are not now. Listed because the reason matters: this is what the rotation did to the list in 14 days.
| Ticker | Conv | 7/14 | Now | Δ | Was | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | [6.5] | $134.90 | $164.66 | +22.1% | Broke $145 stop | Well above $130-145 add. $2.5B Microsoft AI pact, NATO contract, $7.5B FY26 buyback (+62% YoY). 4.23% yield, 11.2x fwd. Thesis improving, price gone. |
| EPAM | [6.0] | $84.10 | $100.40 | +19.4% | Hold stub, sub-$75 add | Add zone unreachable. 7.1x fwd, target $135. Sector re-rating, not a company fix. |
| SAP | [7] | $149.23 | $179.17 | +20.1% | In accumulate <$155 | Out. ✅ Q2 (7/24) resolved the deceleration worry the wrong way for buyers: cloud revenue +24% to $7.1B, record cloud backlog, guidance held. The thesis-break watch item is cleared — and the discount with it. |
| TRI | [7.5] | $85.77 | $103.29 | +20.4% | In $82-98 add | Out. Catalyst: sold 51% of Global Print to KKR (~$500M), sharpening the software/AI mix. The "buy in tranches around Aug 5" plan is now a much worse entry. FV $95-120 — at $103 it's mid-range. |
| BAH | [6.5] | $63.87 | $73.19 | +14.6% | In $60-65 strong-buy | Out. Q1 FY27 (7/24): revenue −4.2% to $2.8B (miss), adj EPS $1.81 vs $1.48 (big beat) → +14.9% day. Transition year confirmed but more profitable than feared. |
| IT | [6.0] | $134.73 | $155.84 | +15.7% | In $130-145, gated | Out, and the CV gate was never satisfied. |
| FDS | [7.5] | $251.93 | $283.87 | +12.7% | Attractive, add to $265 | Out. 14.4x fwd. FV $290-340 — now only ~2-20% upside. Consensus target $255 is below spot. |
| EFX | [6.5] | $167.97 | $187.02 | +11.3% | In zone, stage | Out of the $150-160 stage. FV $155-185 — now at the top. |
| BMY | [6.0] | $58.09 | $63.60 | +9.5% | Fair at $58 | Near FV top ($58-68). 4.03% yield. Earnings 7/30. |
| ADP | [8.5] | $245.82 | $264.17 | +7.5% | Out of $195-210 | Further out. 21.6x fwd; consensus target $256.87 is below spot. |
| WDAY | [8.0] | $139.64 | $159.69 | +14.4% | Above $110-130 | Well above. 12.6x fwd. |
| GPN | [7.5] | $75.78 | $87.46 | +15.4% | Just above $62-70 | Far above. 5.4x fwd is the cheapest number on this entire list — worth noting even though the zone is blown. |
| CRM | — | $168.96 | $181.50 | +7.4% | In $155-170 add | Out. 11.7x fwd, target $242. |
| MANH | [8.0] | $158.13 | $168.17 | +6.3% | Just above stage-1 | Further above $148-155. |
| INTU | — | $282.83 | $312.99 | +10.7% | Well below $370-390 | Still below add zone — but "below the add zone" here means the stock is cheap, and a fresh /health was already flagged on 7/14 and never run. |
| ITRI | [—] | $83.45 | $107.02 | +28.2% | Just above $72-82 | Blown out. Biggest single move on the list. |
| LEU | [7.5] | $158.08 | $169.65 | +7.3% | In $145-170 | Top edge — effectively out. |
Everything else (GOOGL, APP, GWRE, DOCU, SNOW, TEAM, PATH, PCTY, DT, U, DOCN, FSLY, TTD, NOW, ANET, SPGI, ARCC, NLCP, O, NVO, VEEV, UNH, TGT, TDC, BABA, CCJ, CEG, BWXT, SHOP, CDW, NTAP, TEL, BDC, FFIV, HUBB, AME, ALL, PLAB, FTNT, ZS, QLYS, VRRM, QBTS, NVTS) — no zone change worth acting on this scan.
✂️ TRIM CANDIDATES — and a Cost Worth Naming
Seven names were flagged as trim candidates on 7/14. None were acted on. Here is what two weeks cost:
| Ticker | 7/14 | Now | Δ | Trim At | Still above? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $550.25 | $454.62 | −17.4% | $360+ | Yes — still trim |
| CRWD | $208.49 | $181.80 | −12.8% | $140+ (split-adj) | Yes — still trim |
| PANW | $350.42 | $319.00 | −9.0% | $230+ | Yes — still trim |
| TWLO | $217.89 | $194.33 | −10.8% | $175+ | Yes — barely |
| OKTA | $152.83 | $136.21 | −10.9% | $110+ | Yes — still trim |
| SNOW | $277.49 | $270.36 | −2.6% | $220-230 | Yes — still trim |
| SANM | $206.01 | $172.43 | −16.3% | into strength | Strength gone |
| INTC | $108.09 | $86.30 | −20.2% | 30-50% on strength | Strength gone |
Every single one fell. Average ≈ −12.5%. These are still above their trim zones, so the recommendation stands unchanged — but it is now a materially worse execution price, and the AI-capex complex that carried them is in a −24% drawdown. If the plan is to trim, the case for doing it in this window rather than the next one is stronger than it was two weeks ago, not weaker.
🔬 Unscored Entries — /analyze Priority
Ranked by (a) apparent cheapness vs. history, (b) catalyst proximity, (c) portfolio gap filled.
| # | Ticker | Price | %off High | fwd P/E | Target | Why it earns the slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNPS | $383.82 | −41.1% | 22.2x | $564 (+47%) | Held position, no conviction score, never analyzed, and it just fell BELOW its own add zone. EDA is a genuine duopoly with the semi-design moat intact regardless of what capex does. The one name where a dislocation and an unknown overlap. |
| 2 | PLAB | $29.15 | −47.9% | 14.4x | $42.33 (+45%) | Photomasks — one of only 3 merchant players globally. EV/EBITDA ~3.5x, net cash, 18.5% net margin, 11.0x trailing. The catch is flat revenue (−0.5% YoY): classic value-vs-trap, unresolved since 7/13. Cheapest unresolved name on the list. |
| 3 | CEG | $259.82 | −37.0% | 19.4x | $352.91 (+36%) | Largest US nuclear fleet (21 reactors), Meta + Microsoft PPAs, FCF-positive. Flagged "Priority" on 7/14 and still not run. Fills a real gap: the AI-power theme without owning an AI-capex semiconductor. Down 37% off the high while the AI trade unwound — that is the setup. |
| 4 | BWXT | $169.67 | −29.8% | 32.7x | $238.16 (+40%) | Sole-source Navy nuclear propulsion + BWRX-300 SMR. Also flagged Priority 7/14. The natural SMR replacement — same theme, real revenue. |
| 5 | BDC (Belden) | $104.93 | −34.4% | 10.8x | $153.00 (+46%) | Dismissed on 7/14 as "stale — refresh or drop." At 10.8x fwd with a strong_buy consensus and +46% implied, dropping it looks like the wrong call. Cheap enough to check before discarding. |
| 6 | FTNT | $149.98 | −12.0% | 43.8x | $135.57 (−10%) | Earnings 7/29. Consensus target is below spot and the cyber sleeve is 4-deep. Low priority — arguably should be removed instead. |
➖ Recommended REMOVALS
| Ticker | Price | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AHRT | $7.11 | ⚠️ Third consecutive scan flagged for exit. Dead capital, revenue declining. Exit and remove. Replacement (O, $65.73) is above its entry — but the removal shouldn't wait on the replacement. |
| SMR | $8.22 | ⚠️ Also third consecutive scan. −85.7% off high, fwd P/E −11.5, revenue 2033. Exit → redeploy into LEU/UEC. |
| EVGO | $1.63 | 🆕 −68.5% off high, fwd P/E −4.9. Thesis was "pre-profit, FCF positive 2028-2031, size for total loss." The equity is now pricing that the dilution and DOE-loan math broke before it got there. At [4.5] with no catalyst, this is watchlist clutter. Remove. |
| SNDK | $1,096.10 | [3.5] AVOID, honest FV range $250-$2,200 (9x spread). It fails §0 of the framework — you cannot say whether it's priced in. Remove from active watch; re-add at 2-3x book (~$190-280) after a cycle turn. |
| AMKR | $45.69 | [4.0] AVOID / value trap. Graham IV $27.10, stock 70% above it, FCF guided −$1.0 to −$1.6B. Remove or park in a dormant list. |
| LFUS | $392.05 | [—], entry ($155-175) stale by 2.2x, −21.7% off high but 22.7x fwd with no thesis on file. Refresh or remove — recommend remove. |
| AME | $241.43 | [—], −1.3% off its 52wk high, entry ($170-185) stale, 27.4x fwd. Nothing to watch for. Remove. |
| ALL | $272.42 | [—], −0.1% off its 52wk high. Fully valued, entry ($175-190) stale. Remove unless a P&C thesis is wanted. |
Keep despite flags: VRRM ($4.18, distressed — the 3 gating conditions are still the right frame), QBTS ($16.21 — closer to the $12-15 entry than it was), NVTS ($10.01 — reported 7/27, re-check before any action).
📅 Catalyst Calendar — Next 30 Days
Unusually dense. Twelve watchlist names report in the next 72 hours.
| Date | Tickers |
|---|---|
| 7/28 (today, AMC) | 🔴 KLAC · CVLT · SPGI · PYPL · GLW · MANH · V · HUBB · ITRI |
| 7/29 | 🔴 MSFT · 🔴 META · 🔴 CTSH · PTC · QCOM · FTNT · ADP · ARCC · VICI · LFUS |
| 7/30 | 🔴 CHKP (churn test) · BMY · BDC |
| 7/31 | ETN · CCJ |
| 8/3-8/4 | BWXT · AHRT · LDOS · IT · BR · QLYS · PCTY · AMD · ANET · DOCN · TDC · EMR · TSLX · AME |
| 8/5-8/6 | GPN · O · NLCP · NVO · LEU · SMR · EVGO · CEG · ALL · VRRM · OBDC · CDW · SHOP · TRI · SNDK · EPAM · TTD · TEAM · TWLO · MAIN · FISV · QBTS |
| 8/12-8/26 | TCEHY 8/12 · TGT 8/19 · INTU 8/20 · WDAY 8/20 · OKTA 8/25 · SNPS 8/26 · PLAB 8/26 · SNOW 8/26 |
Ex-dividend / income note: VICI (6.73%), OBDC (13.00%), ARCC (10.16%), NLCP (10.90%), MAIN (8.14%), TSLX (9.81%) all report in the 7/29-8/6 window. The dividend rotation is actively bidding these — expect entries to keep moving away, not toward.
🔄 Conviction Score Notes
Not formal re-scores (those need a full /analyze), but these look stale after this scan:
- PYPL [5.5] — score is now meaningless. A $60.50 takeover bid governs the price, not the branded-checkout thesis. Treat as a special situation.
- SAP [7] → likely [7.5] — Q2 record cloud backlog + 24% cloud growth cleared the thesis-break watch item (the "first sequential CCB decel since 2023" was cyclical, not structural). The business improved and the discount vanished simultaneously.
- ACN [6.5] → upward pressure — $2.5B Microsoft AI pact, NATO contract, buyback raised 62% to $7.5B. The AI-disruption discount is deflating from both ends.
- DPZ [7.5] → downward pressure — US SSS +0.1%, weakest in over a year, EPS missed. One more flat/negative quarter triggers the documented thesis break. The +13% price move and the deteriorating fundamentals are pointing in opposite directions.
- IBM [6.0] — the fork partially resolved. Q2 (7/22): revenue $17.16B +1% (1.8% light), but software +5% to $7.76B with Red Hat +11% and Data +19% — the weakness was Infrastructure −7.4% (mainframe/memory supply), not a structural software collapse. FY26 guide cut from >5% to 4-5% cc. Bear case not confirmed; bull case not clean either. At $227.55 (+3.9%) with a 3.13% yield, the "small first tranche $210-220" window has closed.
Bottom Line
-
The trade the 7/14 scan identified worked, and it was not taken. ADBE, BR, CTSH, BAH, LDOS, FDS, TRI, SAP, ACN, EPAM all rose 8-22% in fourteen days. The recurring pattern across the last three scans is correct identification followed by non-execution — on both the buy side and the trim side.
-
What remains actionable is narrow and tech-heavy: AVGO, MSFT, ADBE, BR, plus VICI and UEC. That is the whole list. If the growth-to-value rotation continues, the tech names get cheaper and the income names get more expensive — which argues for staging the four tech entries and not waiting on the two income ones.
-
The 72-hour earnings cluster (MSFT, META, CTSH, PTC, CHKP, KLAC, QCOM) should gate most decisions. Buying MSFT or KLAC in the next 24 hours is a bet on a print, not on a valuation.
-
The trim list has cost ~12.5% in two weeks and is still above its zones. That is the clearest unresolved action item on this watchlist.
Scan performed 2026-07-28. Prices live via yfinance. Prior scan: watchlist-scan-2026-07-14.md. Related: compare-korea-memory-selloff-CVLT-SNDK-KLAC-AMKR-GLW-2026-07-28.md.
Sources: ACN rally / Microsoft AI pact · PYPL Stripe/Advent bid · SAP Q2 cloud backlog · TRI / KKR Global Print deal · Semiconductor selloff · AMAT drawdown · DPZ Q2 · BAH Q1 FY27 · SANM Q3 FY26 · IBM Q2