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Focused pass on the ~20 names that reported 7/28 AMC through 7/29. Full 91-ticker sweep was run yesterday: watchlist-scan-2026-07-28.md.
Market Context — The Rotation Accelerated and Volatility Broke
| Index | Level | 1 day | 1 week |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,316.15 | −1.52% | −2.44% |
| Nasdaq | 24,442.94 | −1.74% | −4.86% |
| VIX | 20.66 | +13.5% | +24.2% |
| QQQ | $661.73 | −2.04% | −6.18% |
| SCHD | $33.83 | −0.18% | +2.83% |
The QQQ/SCHD spread widened to 9 points in one week (was 10.5 points over a month). VIX crossing 20 with a +24% weekly move is a regime change, not a wobble — this is the first pass where the rotation is being priced with fear rather than just reallocation.
🟢 THE HEADLINE: KLAC Is Now the Best Setup on the List
$190.80 → $170.19 (−10.8%) — and the fundamentals went the other way.
| FQ4 result | vs consensus |
|---|---|
| EPS $1.05 | vs $1.00 est — beat |
| Revenue $3.66B | vs $3.60B est — beat |
| Next-quarter guide $4.0B midpoint | +1.2% ABOVE consensus |
| GAAP net income | $1.36B |
And the multiple collapsed while earnings power rose:
| 7/15 | 7/28 | 7/29 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 44x | 37.5x | 25.9x |
| Price | ~$226 | $190.80 | $170.19 |
A −10.8% price move alongside a 31% drop in the forward multiple means forward EPS estimates were revised up roughly 28% on that above-consensus guide. The stock fell on cautious FY2027 commentary and high expectations, not on results — plus the sector-wide memory nerve (SK Hynix slowing its HBM4 transition).
Why this matters against the 7/28 analysis:
- ✅ Inside the accumulate zone ($165-190) — and in the lower half now, not the top edge
- ✅ 25.9x forward is now BELOW the 29.6x sector median flagged in the 7/28 write-up, versus 53x trailing / 30.5x 5yr-average
- ✅ No thesis break. The documented triggers were process-control growth <10% 2Q, memory customers cutting 2027 capex, or FY27 EPS consensus <$4.50. At $170.19 and 25.9x, implied forward EPS is ~$6.57 — nowhere near the break line.
- ✅ The gate was "do not buy before the print." The print happened, it beat, and the price is 11% lower.
Best business in the semi-cap group: 61% GM, 41% op margin, 31% FCF margin, ROE 95%, majority share of process control — the toll booth every fab pays, with intensity rising each node. Shares shrinking 4.1%/yr. Consensus target $234 (+37%).
Recommendation: BUY, in the accumulate range. Strong buy below $160 (200d ≈ $156). Per the original analysis, fund it from INTC as a quality upgrade inside the semi sleeve — which pairs directly with the tax work below. Trim $260+.
⚠️ Honest counterweight: memory is 15-25% of revenue and Korea 15-20% of geography, so the FY27 estimate carries real risk. The reason to buy is that you're now paying a below-median multiple for the best asset in the group — not that the risk went away.
Earnings Results — What Actually Happened
Beats that ran away
| Ticker | 7/28 | 7/29 | Δ | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANH | $168.17 | $204.02 | +21.3% | Adj EPS $1.39 (beat 6.1%), revenue $297.8M +9.3%, cloud subscription +26.2% to $126.7M, RPO $2.47B +23% YoY. FY26 EPS guide raised to $5.44-5.50 and revenue to $1.160-1.170B — both above Street. | ✅ Thesis fully validated ([8.0]) — and now unbuyable. 33.4x fwd, and consensus target $185.45 is 9% BELOW spot. The $148-155 stage-1 entry is a distant memory. Move to Honorable Mentions and wait. |
| CTSH | $50.31 | $55.97 | +11.2% | Adj EPS $1.37, revenue $5.48B +4.5%, op margin 15.9% (+30bps YoY), net income $636M. Launched Project Leap, closed $1.39B of AI-focused acquisitions, expanded buybacks. | ⚠️ The entry thesis is dead. It was "ran out of zone on sector reassessment, not a company fix — a miss re-opens it." It didn't miss; margins expanded. 9.0x fwd, target $60.38. Fair, not cheap. The AI-disruption discount is gone. |
| INTU | $312.99 | $333.13 | +6.4% | No earnings (Aug 20) — software-group sympathy. | Still 12.2x fwd, −59.1% off high, target $456. Remains #2 /analyze priority — the move makes it more urgent, not less. |
| ADBE | $249.18 | $263.43 | +5.7% | No earnings (Sept 10). | ⚠️ Now at the top edge of the $230-265 full-buy zone. 9.6x fwd. Two more good days and it's out. If you want ADBE, this is close to the last of it. |
Beats the market punished
| Ticker | 7/28 | 7/29 | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | $190.80 | $170.19 | −10.8% | Beat + guided above. See above. The opportunity. |
| QCOM | $162.88 | $155.68 | −4.4% | EPS $2.21 in line, revenue $9.9B vs $9.6B est — beat. Punished on smartphone-market slowdown. Now −40.1% off high, 14.2x fwd, 2.26% yield, target $220.57 (+42%). Add zone $120-132 still below, but this is drifting into interesting. |
| HUBB | $483.66 | $460.96 | −4.7% | Reported; 20.5x fwd, target $556. Stays 💤 Dormant but closer to a real level. |
| ITRI | $107.02 | $102.33 | −4.4% | Reported. 15.2x fwd, target $128. Still above the $72-82 entry; stays Dormant. |
Reported tonight (7/29 AMC) — reaction pending
| Ticker | Close | Result |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $390.54 | ✅ Strong. Beat top and bottom; Azure crossed $100B revenue for the first time; guided 39-40% constant-currency Azure growth. Still inside the $380-400 add zone at the close. The AI-capex-fear discount looks increasingly unearned — this is the print the [8.0] thesis needed. |
| META | $585.61 | ⚠️ Mixed. EPS missed, revenue beat, Q3 revenue guide came in below the midpoint; narrowed 2026 capex range. Add zone $560-590 — a negative reaction puts it in range, but on softer numbers than the setup assumed. |
In line / no change
V $368.73 (+0.6%, −1.4% off high — near trim $380) · SPGI $419.64 (−1.1%) · VICI $27.13 (still in the $26.50-28 zone, 6.64% yield) · ARCC $18.71 (−1.7%, 10.08% yield) · PYPL $58.35 (flat — still vs the $60.50 Stripe/Advent bid) · GLW $124.05 (−1.6%) · CVLT $120.31 (flat) · PTC $132.46 (+3.9%, 15.3x fwd, target $174 — moved further from the $115 add) · ADP $273.37 (+3.5%; target $256.87 still below spot) · LFUS $410.47 (+4.7%)
Confirmed removal
FTNT $153.22 (+2.2% post-earnings) — consensus target $135.57 remains 12% below spot, 44.7x forward, and the cyber sleeve is 4-deep. Three passes with the same conclusion. Retire it to the Graveyard as 💤 Dormant.
🔴 The Tax Story Moved — In Both Directions
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build. A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build. A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Watchlist Changes
⭐ Shortlist (in zone): KLAC $170.19 🆕 (top pick) · AVGO $370.32 (−2.8%, lower in the $360-420 zone — better entry) · MSFT $390.54 (strong print, still in zone) · ADBE $263.43 (top edge — nearly out) · BR $159.20 (still $150-162) · VICI $27.13 · UEC $9.04 (−4.2%, cheaper in zone)
Out of the Shortlist / demoted: - MANH → Honorable Mentions (+21.3%, target below spot) - CTSH → Honorable Mentions (beat; the "miss re-opens it" path is closed) - PTC → further from the $115 add after +3.9%
Graveyard additions: FTNT 💤 Dormant (target below spot, 3 passes, sleeve full)
Unchanged priorities: SNPS $373.69 still above its revised $310-335 zone · INTU now the most urgent /analyze · PLAB $29.15 held and still unanalyzed
Bottom Line
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Earnings pass 2026-07-29. Prices at 7/29 close; MSFT/META reported after the bell — reactions not yet reflected.
Sources: KLAC Q4 beat, stock −10.1% · KLA guidance reaction · MANH Q2 · MANH guidance raise · CTSH Q2 · MSFT/META/QCOM earnings day