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Watchlist scan

Mode: light. Price sweep, zone diff, catalyst calendar, and targeted news on the movers only. The Sleeve Vacancy Scout did not run — the five sleeve screens are the expensive part of this command and were skipped by the mode flag. This scan therefore says nothing about whether the market threw up a new candidate for a sleeve. Run a full /watchlist-scan for that.

Baseline: Layer 1 prices as of 2026-08-11 → watchlist-scan-2026-08-11.md. Sleeve-level prices in Watchlist.md are older than that and were not used as baselines — see the stale-baseline warning below.

Market context

Level 1wk 1mo
SPY 767.36 −0.4% +3.4%
QQQ 717.51 −0.1% +3.1%
VIX 15.72 +2.9% −15.7%
10yr (^TNX) 4.71% +0.5% +2.3%

The index did nothing this week. The watchlist did. SPY −0.4% while META fell −9.3% and AVGO −8.7%. Both moves are idiosyncratic, not market beta — which is the useful kind, because it means the entries they opened are name-specific and not a falling tide.

⚡ ACT NOW

Ticker Conv Price 1wk Zone Catalyst Recommendation
META [6.5] ⚠️ stale $543.67 −9.3% 🔻 BELOW $560-590 — fell through the floor Child-safety trial began today 8/18 🔴 RE-ANALYZE BEFORE BUYING. The price came to you on bad news, not on nothing.
AVGO [8.5] $379.83 −8.7% ✅ IN $360-420 — mid-band, off the top edge Print 9/2 🟢 The three-scan stalemate resolved. Highest-conviction in-zone name — but the only file is 6/12.
BR [8.5] $169.88 −0.5% ✅ IN $150-180 — 🟢 Third scan in zone, file is fresh (8/04). The cleanest actionable name on the list.
DOX [7.0] $57.88 +0.7% ✅ IN $50-62 — 🟢 Held its zone. Analyzed 8/12, ACCUMULATE. 7.2x fwd, 3.98% yield.
G [6.5] $34.66 +2.1% ✅ IN $30-36 — 🟢 Held its zone. Analyzed 8/11, ACCUMULATE. 7.7x fwd.
APP [6.0] $307.26 −3.6% ✅ IN $290-330 — bottom edge — 🟡 At its 52-week low ($303.17), −27.6% in a month. In zone but falling; size accordingly.

The three that matter

1. META — the entry is real, the underwriting is not.

The 8/11 scan wrote META off as "ran out of the zone unexecuted… the thesis is unchanged and only the entry is gone. Re-enters below $590." It has re-entered — and kept going, straight through the $560 floor to $543.67, a −15.8% month.

But the price did not fall for nothing. Q2 landed after the last scan:

  • Revenue $60.8B, +28% YoY — a beat ($60.2B est). The ad machine is fine.
  • EPS $6.18 vs $7.14 expected — a hard miss.
  • FY26 capex guided up to $135–145B, the low end raised $10B in a single quarter. Q2 capex alone was $31.1B.
  • The 29-state-AG child-safety trial started in California today (8/18).

The existing file is analyze-2026-07-29.md, written the morning of the print, and it says so itself in a timing flag on page one: "The single biggest unknown in this entire analysis — 2027 capex — is unguided and may land tonight. This report is a framework for reading the print, not a basis for acting before it."

That gate has now resolved, and it resolved against the name. Conviction [6.5] and FV $500–750 are both pre-print numbers. Buying the band on them is acting on an analysis whose own author told you not to.

This is also a textbook instance of pattern-ai-build-inflates-earnings-while-destroying-fcf — revenue and reported growth strong, capex eating the FCF the multiple implies. That note already carries GOOGL and AMZN showing the same shape.

→ Action: /analyze META this week, before the trial produces headlines. Not a buy yet.

2. AVGO — the stalemate broke the right way.

Called out on 8/11 as "the only shortlist name that did not move all week — it has now sat at the top edge for three consecutive scans while being called 'final day(s) in the band' twice. Either half-size it or drop the pretence that it is actionable."

It fell −8.7% and is now at $379.83, mid-band of $360–420 rather than scraping the ceiling. 21.2x → 19.5x fwd, target $527.88 (+39%), strong_buy. The band is genuinely actionable for the first time in a month.

Two things attached to the fall, both new since the last scan:

  • VMware vCenter CVE-2026-59310 is being actively exploited — disclosed 7/29, emergency patch issued, exploitation observed from ~8/3. A software-security event inside the acquisition that carries the non-AI half of the story.
  • BofA flagged Broadcom's chip-financing vehicle reaching ~$370B of senior debt by mid-2029 at 20GW scale, with ~$150B of new issuance in 2027 alone.

Neither is fatal; both belong in an updated file. The only AVGO analysis on record is analyze-2026-06-12.md — over two months old, with a print on 9/2.

→ Action: this is the in-zone name with the best conviction-to-price ratio. Either open a half position now, or /analyze AVGO before 9/2. Do not carry it into a fourth scan undecided.

3. BR — the boring one that keeps working.

$169.88, −0.5% on a week that moved everything else. Third consecutive scan inside $150–180, 14.7x fwd, target $213.25 (+25.5%), analyzed 8/04. No catalyst, no drama, no reason to wait. It is the only name here where zone, conviction, and file freshness all agree.

👀 WATCH CLOSELY

Ticker Conv Price 1wk Zone status Catalyst Note
INTU [7.0] $350.41 +4.2% ❌ EXITED $300-345 ⏳ 8/25 — 7 days 🔻 Ran out of the band one week before the biggest scheduled event on this watchlist. FY26 results + first FY27 guide + annual dividend raise, all in one release. −51% off high, tgt $449.20 (+28%).
GDDY [6.5] $95.81 +4.7% ⚠️ EXITED ≤$95 — by $0.81 — Marginal exit after two scans in zone. 8.7x fwd, tgt $104.80. Treat ≤$95 as still live; this is noise, not a re-rating.
FIS [5.0] $40.97 −4.2% ✅ ENTERED $36-42 (first time) — 🆕 Now inside the entry band the 8/06 file set. ⚠️ But conviction is only 5.0 and the file's headline finding stands: screeners show 6.6x, the real figure is 19.3x — the +$2,214M Worldpay-stake gain. Zone entry does not upgrade the name.
TCEHY [7.5] $56.34 −5.3% 👀 Low-$50s add ~6% away — Highest-conviction name in the Structural-Risk sleeve, moving toward its add. ⚠️ Execute via 0700.HK, not the thin ADR.
LULU [5.0] $119.01 −5.3% 👀 Entry $100-110, ~8% away ⏳ 9/3 print + new CEO 🔴 The 8/11 file's warning is now closer: do NOT front-run the September print. Heidi O'Neill arrives on the print with every incentive to kitchen-sink guidance. Let it come to you.
ADI [7.0] $376.63 −2.3% 🔴 ~35% above FV mid ⏳ PRINTS TOMORROW 8/19 Nearest catalyst on the list. Add <$290 — nowhere near it. Watch only.
SNPS [6.0] $404.41 −1.6% 🔴 Add $310-335, ~21% above ⏳ 8/26 Gated on Design IP margin >28% + sequential growth.
AMAT [6.5] $514.33 −2.1% 🔴 Entry $300-350, 47% below ✅ 8/13 print passed Post-print drift only. The entry remains fantasy at this price.
HLNE [5.5] $101.10 −2.1% 🔴 Entry $80-92, ~10% above — Analyzed 8/12. Drifting the right way, not there.
KT [5.5] $18.77 +1.2% 🔴 Entry $16.50-18.00 — Moved away from the entry the 8/11 file put ~3% off.
AZN [7.0] $160.06 −0.9% 🔴 ACCUMULATE at $150, ~6% away — The quality answer to the healthcare hole. Patient.

✂️ TRIM ZONE — the unharvested keep running

Ticker Held Price 1wk Trim at Status
MU $940.76 +8.3% ✂️ NOW 🔴 Ran +8.3% further from a TRIM NOW / EXIT call [4.0]. FV $280-560 (mid ~$400) — spot is ~2.35x the midpoint, up from ~2.2x last week. The cumulative-FY21-25-FCF-of-$1.22B finding is unchanged.
INTC $96.69 −1.0% 20x fwd 🔴 Still above FV $55-85, at 47.4x fwd. The trim-30-40%-of-Beta call from 8/04 stands.
TWLO $232.10 −9.3% ❌ $175+ dead Came in hard but still 33% above the retired trim level. The Q2 beat that caused the run is real; the trim number is the thing that is wrong.
SNOW · CRWD · PANW · OKTA 325.32 · 212.92 · 374.14 · 143.92 — — All four still at or above consensus targets. The tax hold-rule continues to govern. CRWD and OKTA print 8/26, PANW 9/1, SNOW 9/2 — four cyber / high-multiple prints in seven days.

📅 Catalyst calendar — next 32 days

Date Tickers Why it matters here
8/19 ADI, TGT ADI gated; TGT [5.5]
8/20 BABA Structural-Risk sleeve
8/25 INTU 🔴 The big one. FY26 results + first FY27 guide + dividend raise. Zone exited 7 days prior.
8/26 CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PLAB, SNPS, VEEV SNPS gate; two held cyber names
8/27 RBRK, WDAY RBRK is unscored [—] and at 154x fwd
9/1 PANW Held
9/2 AVGO, SNOW 🟢 AVGO decision point — in zone and printing
9/3 DOCU, GWRE, LULU, PATH, ZS LULU new-CEO print
9/10 ADBE, ORCL Both held / on-deck
9/17 FDS

🔬 Unscored [—] — priority for /analyze

Unchanged from 8/11; none moved enough to reorder.

Rank Ticker Price Why
1 CEG $266.83 Largest US nuclear fleet, Meta + Microsoft PPAs. The AI-power theme has no scored name. Carried unrun for four scans.
2 BWXT $164.97 Sole-source US Navy nuclear propulsion + BWRX-300. Near its 52w low ($157.10).
3 RBRK $100.56 Held with no conviction score, at 154.5x fwd, above its consensus target, printing 8/27. The most uncomfortable [—] on the list.
4 O $62.24 5.21% yield, 30yr streak — the quality income anchor with no file.
5 VRRM $4.45 Distressed, 3 gates none met. Analyze to confirm the graveyard, or retire it.

Additions / removals

Additions: none proposed. The Sleeve Vacancy Scout did not run in light mode, so this scan has no basis for nominating new names. Any addition here would be fabricated rather than screened.

Removals: none. FTNT and BDC (Belden) were already retired on 8/11.

One flag: RBRK is held, unscored, at 154x forward earnings, above its consensus target, with a print on 8/27. That is the profile the 8/11 scan used to retire FTNT. Either score it or schedule the same decision.

Conviction scores that look stale

Ticker Score Why it is questionable
META [6.5] Set 7/29, before the Q2 print whose gate the file itself named as decisive. EPS missed, capex guide raised $10B at the low end, trial underway. The number cannot survive un-rechecked.
AVGO [8.5] Set 6/12 — over two months and one actively-exploited CVE ago, with a print in two weeks.
RBRK [—] Held, no score, 154x fwd.

⚠️ Data-quality note — stale sleeve baselines

Layer 2 sleeve prices in Watchlist.md are not all from 2026-08-11, despite the header saying prices are live to that date. Names not touched by the 8/11 pass carry prices from earlier scans. Diffing against them manufactures moves that did not happen:

Ticker Sleeve price Actual Apparent Δ Real 1wk
GLW $126.01 $159.90 +26.9% +0.4%
U $31.83 $46.74 +46.8% +6.5%
QLYS $135.75 $187.98 +38.5% +1.2%
VEEV $201.20 $242.78 +20.7% +2.6%
CTSH $50.31 $57.78 +14.8% −1.4%
ZS $151.63 $185.70 +22.5% +4.0%

GLW is also duplicated with LULU at $126.01 in the sleeve table — a copy error, not a coincidence. Every delta in this report was computed against 1-week price history, not against the sleeve column.

This is worth a note if it recurs: the scan updates Layer 1 prices but leaves Layer 2 prices frozen, so the sleeves silently accumulate stale marks between full sweeps.

What this scan did NOT do

  • No sleeve vacancy screens (evergreen, yield-today, yield-tomorrow, rerating, smallcap) — skipped by light.
  • No full news sweep — targeted searches on META and AVGO only, the two names whose moves needed explaining.
  • Watchlist.md was not rewritten. Five zone states changed and are listed below for the next full pass; the Chinese sidecar and the site build were therefore left alone.

Zone-state changes pending a Watchlist.md edit

Ticker Was Now
META ❌ EXITED $560-590 🔻 BELOW the band — $543.67
AVGO ⚠️ IN, top edge, 3rd scan ✅ IN, mid-band
INTU ✅ IN $300-345 ❌ EXITED
GDDY ✅ IN ≤$95 ⚠️ EXITED by $0.81
FIS 🔴 Above entry ✅ ENTERED $36-42

Sources