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Watchlist scan
Prior scan: 2026-08-04 · 2026-07-29 · full 91-ticker sweep 2026-07-28 Coverage: 110 live watchlist names re-quoted · 5 trading sessions elapsed (8/05, 8/06, 8/07, 8/10, 8/11)
Market Context — the index did nothing and the tape did everything
| Measure | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-11 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | $770.24 | $770.33 | +0.01% |
| S&P 500 index | 7,689 | 7,726.20 | +0.5% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | — | $717.34 | — |
| VIX | 16.19 | 15.36 | −5.1% |
| SOX | 12,166.22 | 12,051.40 | −0.9% |
| 10yr Treasury | ~4.70% | 4.68% | −2bp |
The headline is dispersion, not direction. The index closed the week within one basis point of where it started while individual watchlist names moved between −27% and +34%. An index-level read of these five sessions says "nothing happened." At the name level, this was the most eventful week of the last three.
Rates still have not participated and still have not resolved. The 10yr sat at 4.68% — two basis points off the 8/04 level, no move on the September hike odds. Every conclusion the 8/04 note drew about the rate-duration sleeve stands unchanged, and unchanged is the problem: the sleeve (O −5.6%, VICI −1.0%, ARCC +4.3%, NLCP +0.7%) again earned nothing while the equity book ran.
⭐ ACT NOW
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
🔻 The shortlist ran for the FOURTH consecutive scan — but this time only partially
| Name | 8/04 | 8/11 | Δ | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | $580.90 | $603.37 | +3.9% | ❌ EXITED $560-590. Was the flagged "act on the existing file or explicitly pass" name. Neither happened. |
| LDOS | $130.60 | $140.83 | +7.8% | ❌ EXITED $115-135. Called on 8/04 "the most actionable of today's three prints." It was. It ran. Still 10.9x fwd and ~12% below the $161 FV centre — the thesis is intact, the entry is gone. |
| AVGO | $416.42 | $414.26 | −0.5% | ⚠️ Held the top edge |
| BR | $168.41 | $171.52 | +1.8% | ✅ Held the zone |
| GDDY | $89.09 | $91.11 | +2.3% | ✅ Held the zone |
This is the fourth straight scan in which shortlisted names left their zones unexecuted —
but it is also the first in which the majority did not. Three of five held. The 7/14 and 7/29
cohorts ran 8-27% in full; this one ran 2 of 5. That is a materially better outcome and it is worth
naming, because the failure pattern in
Knowledge/Playbook/pattern-shortlist-runs-when-unexecuted.md was starting to read as inevitable.
It is not. The two that ran (META, LDOS) were the two carrying an explicit "act or pass"
instruction and receiving neither.
👀 WATCH CLOSELY
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
📋 HOLD ON LIST — condensed
Ran further away (no action possible): SAP $208.35 (+16.3%) · SHOP $152.78 (+17.3%) · ZS $177.64 (+17.2%) · SANM $201.79 (+17.0%) · ANET $194.69 (+14.7%) · WDAY $180.92 (+13.3%) · ETN $458.94 (+18.8%) · BABA $128.11 (+11.2%) · GWRE $176.36 (+10.6%) · LEU $187.48 (+10.5%) · CRM $196.72 (+8.4%) · ACN $178.83 (+8.6%) · EMR $162.91 (+7.3%) · NOW $126.66 (+7.2%) · CEG $278.35 (+7.1%)
Trim zone, tax-held (unchanged rule — hold unless gains are at genuine risk): SNOW $332.73 (+4.5%, −2.3% off high) · CRWD $219.63 (+5.1%) · PANW $381.96 (+6.0%) · OKTA $149.48 (+1.9%) · QLYS $186.68 (+1.9%) · MU $857.89 (−3.9%, still ~2.1x the $400 FV mid) · INTC $97.18 (−3.3%, still above the $55-85 FV top)
Fell, still not cheap enough: O $62.05 (−5.6%) · CDW $135.66 (−5.8%) · TDC $27.05 (−7.3%) · NVO $47.40 (−8.2%) · UNH $403.30 (−4.3%) · MANH $196.19 (−5.1%) · SPGI $408.13 (−3.8%) · EFX $181.78 (−2.8%) · TCEHY $59.74 (−5.0%, low-$50s add closer)
Cluster signal update: the software/cyber complex trading above consensus targets has grown, not resolved — SNOW, CRWD, PANW, OKTA, QLYS, FTNT, RBRK, NTAP, PATH, FSLY, TGT, WDAY, DOCU, PYPL, NVO and IT now all sit at or above their mean targets. Fifteen names. A week ago it was six.
⚠️ Eight non-operative price instructions — the sell-side has the same hole as the buy-side
The 8/04 scan diagnosed the buy side: "the bottleneck is not analysis — it is the absence of a pre-committed execution rule." The sell side has the identical defect and it is larger. These instructions cannot be acted on because the price has left them behind in the direction they were meant to catch:
| Ticker | Instruction | Spot | Gap | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | Trim $175+ |
$255.73 | +46% | Dead — breached and never actioned |
| AMD | Trim $360+ |
$473.26 | +31% | Dead — flagged as dead on 8/04, still dead |
| DOCN | Trim $70+ (self-described stale) |
$125.46 | +79% | Dead — flagged stale in June, never reset |
| ETN | Entry $300-320 |
$458.94 | +43% | Unreachable |
| SANM | "trim window closing" | $201.79 | — | Window closed; nothing done |
| TGT | Trim >$150 |
$152.16 | +1.4% | Breached this week |
| PLAB | trim/exit $33-36 |
$32.69 | −1% | Entering now |
| RBRK | Trim $103+ |
$96.17 | −7% | Approaching |
Four of these are held positions. The pattern is the same one already written up for entry zones
(pitfall-stale-entry-zone-suppresses-a-name): a price level written once and never re-derived
stops being an instruction and becomes decoration. It suppresses a name on the buy side and
releases a winner on the sell side, and the sell-side version has now cost more.
🗓 Catalyst Calendar — next 30 days
| Date | Ticker | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 | AMAT | FQ3 print | The BESI-mark GAAP-"miss" setup. Entry is 50% below spot — watch only. |
| Aug 19 | ADI | FQ3 print | Buyback gate moot at $386. Watch adj GM ≥68%. |
| Aug 25 | INTU | FY26 results + first FY27 guide + annual dividend raise | In zone, held, biggest event on the list. Break tests: FY27 rev guide <8% · dividend raise <8% · QBO Accounting <15%. |
| Aug 26 | SNPS | FQ3 print | Design IP margin >28% + sequential growth. |
| Aug 26 | VEEV | FQ2 print | Ran 17.8% out of zone; print is informational only. |
| ~Aug 26 | PLAB | FQ3 print | Op margin ≥20% = upgrade to 6.0; <18% = downgrade 4.0 + exit. Price is entering the trim band first. |
| Sep 8 | RBRK | FQ2 print | 147.8x fwd into a print, at the consensus target. |
| Sep 10 | ADBE | FQ3 print | Watch total ARR vs the 10.2% guide, not revenue. A revenue beat with an ARR miss → [5.5]. |
| Undated | ADBE | CEO appointment | Internal pick = upgrade to [7]. Month 6, publicly slipped. |
| Oct 13 | AMZN | FTC monopoly trial | Outside 30 days, inside the position. |
🔍 Sleeve Vacancy Scout — what the market threw up that we don't own
Screens run: evergreen, yield-today, yield-tomorrow, rerating. Sleeves 4 (AI capex),
6 (structural-risk) and 7 (speculative) have no screen by design. Names below are absent from
both Watchlist.md and both portfolios. Every one is a nomination, not a find — the screener
sees TTM only and cannot clear the §1 health bar.
Genuine nominations
| Ticker | Price | Multiple | 52wk | Sleeve it would join | Why it beats the weakest current member |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSN (Parsons) | $48.13 | 23.6x | −42.3% | 🏛 Compounder / defense | The best-fitting nomination on the list. Defense & infrastructure services — a direct LDOS/BAH peer, down 42%, precisely as LDOS left its entry zone on price. The watchlist's defense exposure is now one name with no actionable entry. Beats BAH, which sits in Honorable Mentions at $73.19 having been explicitly deprioritized ("preferred LDOS over BAH — don't need both"). |
| IDXX (IDEXX Labs) | $590.34 | 41.5x | −8.7% | 📈 Yield Tomorrow / Healthcare | Not a buy nomination — a thesis test. Companion-animal diagnostics is the same volume exposure that just broke ZTS twice. If ZTS's problem is falling vet visits rather than Zoetis-specific execution, IDXX must show it too. This is the cheapest available check on the [6.5]→[5.5] downgrade and it costs one /health. |
| TYL (Tyler Technologies) | $321.05 | 42.1x | −43.5% | 🔧 Re-Rating | Government vertical SaaS — the highest-switching-cost niche in software, down 43.5%. Would beat NXPI [5.0] and TDC [5.0] on business quality. ⚠️ 42x is not a re-rating multiple yet; the drawdown is the interesting part, not the price. |
| AMP (Ameriprise) | $563.55 | 13.6x | +7.8% | 💰 Financial Services | The Financial Services exposure is 100% BDCs (ARCC, MAIN, TSLX, OBDC) — one business model, one credit cycle, one rate sensitivity. An asset manager at 13.6x is a different risk. |
| ITW · DCI · LECO · AOS · CNI | — | 17-30x | mixed | 📈 Yield Tomorrow / Industrials | The watchlist calls Industrials "the portfolio's emptiest sector" and holds exactly two names (HON, HONA), neither actionable, both post-spin, both gated to November. These are ordinary dividend-growth industrials with long streaks. None is cheap — this is a coverage gap, not an opportunity. |
Null results worth recording
yield-todayreturned nothing usable. All 25 hits were shipping (HAFN, FRO, BWLP, SBLK), Brazilian/Indonesian telecom (TIMB, VIV, TLK), MLPs (ET, WES, PAA, HESM), preferreds (AXS-PE, ACGLO, RNR-PF, ALL-PH, CTA-PB) or broken names (WU at 13.4%, CPB, LYB). The ≥5%-yield screen cannot find quality in this regime — the dividend rotation named on 8/04 has bid away anything that would clear. This is the second consecutive scan where this sleeve screen produced zero nominations; that is now a finding about the screen, not about the week.evergreenis contaminated by the AI complex — NVDA, ASML, SNDK, STX, MU all clear a quality screen on TTM numbers at cycle-peak earnings. Exactly the failurepitfall-multiple-trim-inverts-on-peak-cycle-cyclicalsdescribes, appearing on the entry side.reratingsurfaced HUBS (−49.0%), already analyzed 2026-07-27 and not carried forward — worth confirming that omission was deliberate.
🔬 New /analyze targets — ranked
| # | Ticker | Why now | Cost of not running it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMD | ~14.9sh held (~$7,050), never analyzed, no conviction score, and its only price instruction has been dead for months. −9.7% this week on a DeepSeek in-house-silicon report; 30.6x fwd, EV/EBITDA ~105x. Flagged /analyze PRIORITY #5 on 8/04 and not run. |
A held position of meaningful size with no underwriting at all and no valid sell rule. This is the largest analytical gap in the book. |
| 2 | TWLO | Just re-rated +28.9% on a genuinely strong print (organic +17%, FCF margin 24%, guide raised). Held. Carries no conviction score and a trim level 46% below spot. | Either a real compounder is being carried blind, or a 46%-stale sell instruction is protecting a position that should be trimmed. Both need the same file. |
| 3 | PSN (Parsons) | New name. Fills the defense-services slot LDOS just vacated on price, not on thesis. −42.3% off high at 23.6x. | The one sleeve gap the market actively opened this week. |
| 4 | CEG | /analyze priority #3 flagged 2026-07-14 — four weeks unrun. Now $278.35 (+7.1%). AI-power theme without owning an AI-capex semiconductor — a real diversification role nothing else fills. |
A standing, self-assigned priority that keeps not happening while the price rises. |
| 5 | IDXX | The ZTS cross-check (above). A /health may be sufficient. |
The ZTS downgrade rests on an unverified assumption about whether the volume decline is sector-wide. |
Deliberately not nominated: BWXT (priority #4, still valid but behind CEG on the same theme) · BDC/Belden (priority #5, 10.8x, tgt +46% — genuinely cheap, but it has been "refresh or drop" since 7/14 and the honest call is drop it rather than nominate it a third time).
➖ Removals & housekeeping
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Conviction scores that now look stale
| Ticker | Current | Issue |
|---|---|---|
| LDOS | [8.0] | Score is right; the zone is wrong. $115-135 was set at $130.60 and the stock is $140.83. FV $148-173 still implies +14% to centre — re-derive the entry band to ~$128-142 rather than treating the name as gone. |
| RBRK | [—] | Held, +20.5% in a week on a press release, 147.8x fwd, at its consensus target. [—] on a held name at this multiple is untenable. |
| TWLO | [—] | See above. |
| AMD | [—] | See above. |
| O | [—] | −5.6% to $62.05, entry $50-55. Unscored, and the only clean monthly-dividend REIT candidate on the list. Lowest-priority of the unscored set but the longest-standing. |
Bottom line
- APP is the new actionable name — analyzed 8/05, fell into its own $290-330 band afterwards, file six days old. Act on it or pass on it explicitly.
- BR and GDDY held their zones through a week that moved everything else. BR at ~19% below FV centre with a banked 20th dividend raise is the highest-conviction thing in range.
- META and LDOS ran unexecuted again — but three of five held, which breaks the run of total shortlist evaporation. The two that left were the two carrying "act or pass" instructions.
- The sell side needs the rule the buy side needs. Eight price instructions are non-operative, four on held positions, and TWLO's is 46% stale.
- INTU on Aug 25 is the event. In zone, held, and it carries FY27 guidance plus the dividend raise in a single release. Everything else inside 30 days is watch-only.