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Watchlist scan
Delegated sweep: three Sonnet scouts (price/zone, sentiment/catalyst, sleeve-vacancy) over the full ~130-name universe. Prior scan 2026-08-30; last full 91-ticker sweep 2026-07-28.
Market context — the pullback reopened the museum
| Metric | 8/27–8/30 | 9/09–9/10 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY / QQQ | +5.9% / +8.9% mo | −0.5% / −0.6% on 9/9 | Momentum broke; small caps (R2K −1.3%) hit harder |
| VIX | 14.46 | 16.44 | Hedging demand up off a low base |
| 10yr Treasury | 4.67% | ~4.84% | Highest since Oct 2023 — oil spike + fiscal-risk premium |
| FOMC | ~63% hike odds | ~59% hike odds, Sep 15–16 | The "hike-not-cut" regime is confirming, not resolving |
The single most important finding: the 8/27–8/30 scans warned that ~19 entry zones were "a museum — unreachable without a crash." The crash (a modest, rate-driven one) arrived. The 10yr at a two-year high + an oil-driven inflation scare into the FOMC pulled the whole complex down, and 33 names are now in zone — not because zones widened, but because prices fell. The caveat rides on top of that: this print season is guide-punished, not miss-punished (CRDO −20%, GWRE −20%, LULU −20%, PANW −8%, ZS −4–5%, AVGO −3.5% — all beat or met the quarter and got hit on forward guidance). So "in zone" splits into two very different groups: quality that came to you on a market move (INTU, LDOS, BR, AVGO) versus names that fell on their own deteriorating guide (LULU, GWRE, RBRK). Buy the first; re-underwrite the second.
⏳ Two heavyweight prints land tonight (after close 9/10): ORCL and ADBE. The FOMC lands 6 days later. This scan's shelf life is short by design.
⭐ ACT NOW
Convergence: in zone (price ≤ entry band) and conviction ≥6.5 and thesis intact (not guide-punished on a real deterioration) and no blocking catalyst. Sorted by conviction.
| Ticker | Conv | Price | Zone | %off high | Sleeve | Why now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BR | 8.5 | $168.24 | ✅ IN $150-180 | −34% | Yield Today | Highest conviction on the list, re-entered its band (was $183.80). FY26 +12% adj EPS, 20th straight dividend raise, $1.5B buyback. Thesis intact; only entry discipline was blocking. |
| LDOS | 8.0 | $129.55 | ✅ IN $115-135 | −37% | Compounder | Pulled back into zone (ran to $140, now $129.55). All break triggers cleared on the 8/04 print; backlog 2.66× revenue, FCF CAGR 23.5%. The zone-re-derive todo is now moot — it's simply in. |
| AVGO | 8.0 | $360.83 | ✅ IN $360-420 (low band) | −27% | AI Capex | The event is now behind it — Q3 printed 9/2 (rev +86%, AI rev +221%), fell −3.5% on a Q4 guide $34.8B vs $35.0B street. Tan reiterated AI doubling to $115B FY27. Still the anchor AI-capex buy, now post-print. ⚠️ AI-capex bucket — own one at size (see cluster rule). |
| INTU | 7.5 | $312.77 | ✅ IN $305-350 (mid-band) | −56% | Compounder | The cleanest "came to you" name. Fell from the top edge ($347) to mid-band on the market, not news (−9.9%, no print since the 8/25 beat). FY26 FCF +41.7%, EPS +20%, buyback +96%. Quality de-rated by duration, not by fundamentals. |
| ADBE | 6.5→7.0? | $248.83 | ✅ IN $225-260 | −33% | Compounder | Both gates cleared. (1) Internal CEO named (Chakravarthy, Sep 3) = the pre-registered upgrade-to-7.0 trigger. (2) Q3 beat tonight, AI-first ARR +>150% vs the 10.2% ARR-growth fear. → re-analyze to lock the upgrade (verify the after-hours reaction first). |
| GWRE | 6.5 | $140.09 | ✅ BELOW $150-175 floor | −45% | Compounder | Re-analyzed 9/06 ACCUMULATE; guide-punished −20% but the FY27 OCF guide confirmed the cash thesis. Now well below the "add on weakness $150-175" line. A guide de-rate on an intact business — the good kind of in-zone. |
Plus the 8/28 "quality-on-sale" cohort, now in zone and ACCUMULATE-rated (conv 6.0–6.5): OLED $81.16, STZ $123.81 (below floor), MZTI $101.47, BKE $40.29, DECK $79.88 (below floor), CRUS $116.48, ACM $62.89, XYL $106.55, TMUS $177.16, INGR $101.13, CNM $40.85, PNR $56.73, ROL $34.56, TME $7.90, CALX $34.93, DOX $60.26, GOOGL $332.60 (partial-add band), G $34.41. These are the deep-value adds; size by conviction and respect the cluster caps (water infra XYL/PNR/CNM = one theme; staples STZ/MZTI/INGR = one theme; AI-services G is a single-name-only cluster).
Top 3 to act on: INTU (quality de-rated by rates, not fundamentals — the highest-quality clean entry), BR (highest conviction, back in band, income compounder), AVGO (print behind it, still low-band; size within the AI-capex bucket, not on top of it).
👀 WATCH CLOSELY
In zone or approaching, but the verdict is WATCH/HOLD (needs re-earning or a re-analyze), or a catalyst/deterioration blocks action.
| Ticker | Conv | Price | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 6.0 | $314.49 | ✅ IN $290-330 | 4th consecutive scan in zone. The watchlist's own rule: "a repeated 'still in zone' is not a decision — re-analyze or explicitly pass." SEC data-collection probe unresolved, Q3 early Nov. → /analyze. |
| KLAC | 7.5 | $177.18 | ✅ re-entry <190 met | In zone, but same AI-capex bucket as AVGO — own one, not both. AVGO is the pick (higher conviction, print behind it). |
| SHOP | 7.0 | $126.60 | ✅ IN $115-140 | Business accelerating (GMV +32%), but the 8/27 re-analysis put spot above the base case — in the band on price, not on a margin of safety. |
| DPZ | 7.0 | $317.30 | ✅ IN $305-335 | WATCH: Berkshire exited, FCF stalled. In zone but the verdict is a hold, not a buy. |
| LULU | 5.0 | $96.88 | 🔻 BELOW $100-110 | Guide-punished on a real deterioration — FY cut to a 5–7% revenue decline. The E is falling faster than the P. Do not confuse cheap with value. → /analyze-from-before post-print. |
| HON / LHX | 6.0 / 5.5 | $202.18 / $248.37 | ✅ IN / at band | Both fell into zone; conviction is mid. Adds only if the [N] gets re-earned. |
| FIS | 5.0 | $38.52 | ✅ IN $36-42 | In zone precisely because conviction is 5.0 — bank-processor cluster, already held via FISV. A pass unless re-earned. |
| MNSO 🌏 | 5.0 | $9.06 | ✅ IN $9-11 | WATCH not buy: uncovered 5.8% dividend, China/VIE overhang. Starter only. |
| Approaching (within 7%) | — | — | 🟡 | NVDA +1.6% ($218, M&A + China events → re-analyze), GDDY +1.4%, UAL +1.4%, DKS +2.4%, CRM +3.4%, ACN +1.7%, EMR +0.3%, GPN +0.6%, HONA +2.5%, PCTY +5.8%, IT +6.6%, HLNE +4.1%, PCG +3.9% (fire-season watch), INGN +3.6%. |
✂️ SELL-SIDE — above trim (the actionable half, tax-constrained)
Tax rule (7/28): Self all short-term; Beta taxable heavily taxed regardless of holding period. Hold unless gains are at genuine risk of being wiped out or significantly cut.
A portfolio-specific passage was removed from the public build.
Near trim (watch, no action): VEEV 97% of trim ($261 vs 44× ttm ~$268) · ARCC 98% ($19.68 vs $20) · TSLX 94% · MSFT 91% ($492 vs ~$539) · BMY 91% ($64 vs $70). RBRK dropped OUT of the trim zone (−16.9% to $88.91, now below the $103+ level) — the 8/27 "highest-urgency trim" resolved by the market, guide-punished.
🔬 THE ANALYSIS QUEUE (the point of this scan)
/analyze-from-before — live verdict exists, but an event or staleness demands a re-test
| Priority | Ticker | Last | Trigger to re-test |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ORCL | analyze 7/09 (BUY 7.0) | Prints TONIGHT (fiscal Q1 FY27). Recheck fired 7/23 — 11 weeks stale. −53.8% off high, RPO $638B in focus. Re-test the moment the print lands. |
| 2 | ADBE | analyze 8/04 (WATCH 6.5) | Q3 beat + AI ARR +>150% + internal CEO named — both upgrade gates cleared. Confirm the [6.5]→[7.0] upgrade and re-derive the trim off the new guide. |
| 3 | AVGO | analyze 8/27 (ACCUMULATE 8.0) | Q3 printed 9/2. Fold in the +221% AI number and the Q4-guide-miss to test whether 8.0 holds and the band still fits at $360. |
| 4 | AAPL | analyze 8/27 (WATCH 6.5) | Tim Cook → John Ternus, CEO change effective Sep 1 (reported; verify). A leadership transition on a core name warrants a re-test. |
| 5 | NVDA | analyze 8/28 (ACCUMULATE 6.5) | Two moat events (reported, verify): Hugging Face acquisition (~$12.9B) + China H20-export reversal. Approaching zone (+1.6%). |
| 6 | LULU | analyze 8/11 (WATCH 5.0) | Guide cut to a full-year revenue decline — the thesis shifted from "cheap turnaround" to "deteriorating." |
| 7 | PANW / CRWD / ZS | 8/27 / 8/27 / 7/23 | Post-print sympathy de-rate across the cyber cohort. ZS is the stalest (7/23, no score) and worth a fresh look. |
/analyze — fresh (no live verdict, or the sleeve line demands a decision)
- APP [6.0 WATCH] — 4th scan in zone; the file itself says re-analyze or pass. SEC binary unresolved.
- ZS — cyber, −51.5% off high, analyzed 7/23 with no verdict frontmatter; post-print drift.
- Stale [—] tracked names (analyzed pre-Aug, no verdict recorded): ADI (7/29), PTC (7/14), NXPI (7/29), AMAT (7/29), KLAC (7/28), SNPS (7/28), QLYS (7/23), CDW/CTSH/EPAM/FDS/EFX (7/09–7/14), TDC (3/21). Prioritize the ones now in/near zone.
Reconcile — analyzed recently but NOT placed in any sleeve
CRDO (WATCH 6.5, 9/02, −20% post-print) · MMS (WATCH 6.0, 9/02) · MNDY (WATCH 5.5, 9/05) · FICO (WATCH 5.5, 9/06). CRDO at 6.5 is watchlist-worthy — decide a sleeve (AI Capex / Re-Rating) or file it. The others are WATCH-tier; note or place.
➕ ADDITIONS — sleeve-vacancy nominations (route to /analyze; nominations, not finds)
Screen hits diffed against tracked names, then coverage-checked against Output/INDEX.md. Only NOT-COVERED (or pre-July stale) names below. Each still owes the §1 health bar before a watchlist line.
| Sleeve | Nomination | Why it beats the weakest member |
|---|---|---|
| 🏛 Evergreen | MA | Payments duopoly peer of tracked V; the single cleanest gap. Recurs from the 8/27 list. Beats PCTY/IBM (HOLD 5.5). A rotation vs V, not just an add. |
| 🏛 Evergreen | BKNG · MTD · MEDP | OTA duopoly / lab-instrument razor-blade / CRO niche. Beat PCTY/IBM (5.5); MEDP diversifies thin healthcare-services exposure. |
| 💰 Yield Today | MPLX (WES secondary) | Investment-grade fee-based midstream — diversifies the sleeve off its BDC/REIT rate-duration concentration (MAIN/TSLX/OBDC/ARCC/O/VICI all re-price off the 10yr, which just hit a 2-yr high). Beats NLCP (5.0). |
| 📈 Yield Tomorrow | JNJ · LIN · ITW (CNI 2ndary) | Dividend king / industrial-gas oligopoly / 80-20 compounder. Beat ZTS/HLNE (5.5). Clean list, no data issues. |
| 🔧 Re-Rating | NKE · CSGP · PODD | Brand-moat turnaround / CRE-data monopoly (−66%, spend-driven) / insulin-pump moat. NKE recurs from 8/27. Beat INGN (4.5) / LULU-DBX-FIS (5.0). |
| 🎲 Speculative | ZVRA · INVA | Rare-disease binary / deep-value royalty optionality — matches the sleeve's event-driven risk shape. |
| (retest) | ARLO | Two pre-verdict-schema reports (6/14–6/15) — stale → /analyze-from-before, not a fresh nomination. |
Rejected — do not re-nominate: Z/ZG (WATCH 4.5, 8/26), AMSC (AVOID 3.5, 8/17), STX (same SNDK cyclical-spike trap that earned AVOID), FTNT (cyber sleeve already 6-deep). Covered & fresh (skip): BSX (5.0), HUBS (6.0). Data artifacts (need a clean source): SKHY, LKFT (impossible EV — the ADR/foreign-listing pitfall), GOLD (bullion platform, not a miner).
🗑 REMOVALS / DATA-QUALITY FLAGS
- No thesis-broken removals surfaced beyond the existing graveyard. FTNT graveyard-hygiene note still stands (trading at a 1-yr high with a stale $200-215 entry).
- FISV — fin.py returned mostly blank fields (Fiserv now trades as FI); the $48.93 row is unreliable. Verify against FI before any action.
- VRRM — $3.65 vs a $25.45 52-wk high (−85.7%) is inconsistent with a $7.00 target; likely a split/share-class artifact in the 52-wk-high field. Manual quote check before treating it as near any zone.
Conviction updates
- ADBE 6.5 → 7.0 (provisional) — internal CEO appointment was the pre-registered trigger; confirm on re-analyze.
- RBRK — no score change, but it left the trim zone (guide-punished −16.9%); the "highest-urgency trim" framing is retired.
- All others hold pending their re-analyze; the pullback changed prices, not theses.
Standing work items (carried)
- The stale-zone/museum problem is temporarily solved by price, not by maintenance. When the market recovers, the same ~19 zones go stale again unless re-derived at each name's next /analyze.
- Fixed-dollar → multiple trim conversions are mostly done (VEEV/SAP/V/GWRE/CRM/MSFT/PCTY). Confirm CRWD and OKTA carry multiple-form trims.
- KLAC's
<$190re-entry rule is still prose, not a numeric band — invisible to the parser. Re-write at its next /analyze (also ADI<$290, NXPI<$200, GOOGL<$290, TEAM<$68).